Filtrado de gasto Con la finalidad de considerar únicamente aque-

Determinants are stable factors that are expected to change little over a course of time. Two determinants are used for this thesis, natural and man-made fire, and death and morbidity. These determinants are core missions of the Fire Service: to save lives and protect property. Weighting the determinants allows differentiation during the construction of a plausible scenario. Both determinants are present in all scenarios.

1. Natural and Man-Made Fire

The U.S. Fire Administration (USFA) was created in 1971 with a mission to coordinate at the national level and “foster a solid foundation for our fire and emergency services stakeholders in prevention, preparedness, and response.”264 _{For the purposes of} this paper, natural and man-made fire is a determinate underlying the futures methodology scenario planning. According to the U.S. Fire Administration, approximately 3,400 citizens die each year as a direct result of fire.265 _{Approximately} 17,500 people are injured each year as a direct result of fire, and the property loss annually reaches 12 billion dollars.266 _{Fighting fires result in an average of 100} firefighter deaths each year.267 The United States has one of the highest per-capita fire losses in the world of industrialized nations.268 _{This is even after a steep decline in fire}

264 _{“About the U.S. Fire Administration,” U.S. Fire Administration, accessed January 21, 2014,}

http://www.usfa.fema.gov/about/.

265 _{“About the U.S. Fire Administration.”} 266 _Ibid

267 _Ibid.

268 _{FEMA, FEMA Fire Death Rate Trends: An International Perspective, Topical Fire Report Series}

fatalities in the last 40 years.269 _{The two broad concepts of fire as a determinate are man-}

made and naturally occurring fires.

The use of fire as a weapon by the Greeks and Romans is well documented. Robert A. Baird points out that “pyro-terrorism possesses the four generally accepted elements of terrorism: targeting of noncombatants, political motivation, violence with a psychological impact, and organized perpetrators.”270 _{The events surrounding 9/11}

involve Al Qaeda’s (AQ) use of fire as a weapon. AQ’s intent for the Twin Trade Tower attack was a terror-inciting plan for unconstrained violence and destruction by using aircraft as unconventional weapons. This relied upon the catalyst release of stored energy (fuel) in a destructive way, thereby collapsing both towers.271 _{The heat released by the}

burning fuel caused the intense fires. Those fires caused the underlying metal framework of the buildings to fail, resulting in the collapse.272 _{The media coverage and public}

outrage made AQ a household name almost overnight. AQ was successful in using fire as a weapon/terrorism in its quest to gain attention for their political causes; 343 firefighters died as a direct result while conducting firefighting operations on 9/11 in New York City.273

In 2013, several incidents were reported where fire was used as a weapon. A Florida man set fire to his apartment at the outset of a killing rage that ended six people’s lives.274 _{A student at the University of Central Florida planned to use the fire alarm pull}

269 _{“About the U.S. Fire Administration.”}

270 _{Robert A. Baird, Pyro-Terrorism—the Threat of Arson Induced Forest Fires as a Future Terrorist}

Weapon Of Mass Destruction (Quantico, VA: United States Marine Corps, School of Advanced Warfighting, 2005), 5.

271 _{Baird, Pyro-Terrorism, 5.} 272 _Ibid.

273 _{“9/11 Memorial Pages,” FDNY, accessed January 21, 2014,}

http://www.nyc.gov/html/fdny/html/memorial/index.shtml.

274 _{Fire Department New York, “Gunman Sets Apartment Fire to Initiate Killing Spree,” Watchline,}

panel to evacuate school dorm residents prior to a failed shooting spree.275 _{A New York} gunman started a fire at his residence prior to killing four and wounding two.276

Man-made fires encompass more than just arson and terrorism. At some point in human evolution, man created fire.277 _{Fire’s use has grown into many types of} intentional heat sources for home, office, and transportation (internal combustion engines). Sources of ignition can also be a by-product of other manmade processes supporting habitation, business, and transportation. The USFA reports the main leading causes of death by fire in residential buildings between the years of 2007–2011 as other unintentional, careless, cause under investigation, smoking, electrical malfunction, and intentional.278 _{The leading causes of residential building fires between the years of} 2007–2011 listed by the USFA are cooking, heating, electrical malfunction, other unintentional, careless, intentional, and open flame.279 Man in the post-industrial age will continue to seek a form of fire for cooking, heating, and transportation, and, therefore, man-made fire will continue as an underlying determinate for fire protection.

Naturally occurring fire is a factor in establishing fire as a determinate. Vaisala, a global leader in environmental and industrial measurement, estimates an average of 22,849,146 cloud-to-ground lightning strikes per year in the 48 states, between the years of 1997–2012.280 The National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) compiled a report based on estimates from USFA, National Fire Incident Reporting System NFIRS, and an NFPA fire experience survey. The NFPA estimated a total of 22,600 fires were started by

275 _{Fire Department New York, Center for Terrorism and Domestic Preparedness, “Student Planned to}

Pull Fire Alarm before Shooting Spree,” Watchline, March 21, 2013.

276 _{Fire Department New York, Center for Terrorism and Domestic Preparedness, Watchline, March}

14, 2013.

277 _{Sindya N. Bhandoo, “Humans’ First Use of Fire May Not Be So Long Ago,” New York Times,}

March 14, 2011, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/15/science/15obfire.html?_r=0.

278 _{“Residential and Nonresidential Building Fire Estimates,” U.S. Fire Administration, accessed}

January 21, 2014, http://www.usfa.fema.gov/statistics/estimates/index.shtm.

279 _Ibid.

280 _{“Number of Cloud-to-Ground Flashes by State from 1997 to 2012,” Vaisala Inc., accessed January}

lightning causing 451 million dollars in damage.281 _{The intensity of lightning strikes is a} major factor in wildland fires; the average lightning fire burns more acres as compared to fires started by humans.282 The National Interagency Fire Center is the nation’s leading support center for wildland fires.283 Based upon the meteorological phenomenon of lightning, the occurrence of fire due to lightning strikes is likely to remain a constant.

2. Death and Morbidity

The primary mission of the Fire Service is to save lives and protect property. During 2012–2013, there were 240 million calls made to a 911 center in the United States.284 _{There is a basic need for out-of-hospital health care, and the Fire Service} provides emergency medical services. Terminology for basic statistics regarding public health include incidence, prevalence, morbidity, and mortality. Incidence is the probability of a person contracting a disease over time. Prevalence determines a person’s likelihood of contracting a disease.285 _{Morbidity means illness; one individual can have} multiple co-morbidities.286 Mortality means death.287 There is a strong justification for out-of-hospital medical care due to a statistical demand, to which the Fire Service has the capability to provide pre-hospital medical care.

The Fire Service as a culture is sensitive to tragedies striking children and young adults. Adolescents account for 64 million people in the United States, between the ages

281 _{“Number of Cloud-to-Ground Flashes by State from 1997 to 2012.” “Lightning is also a major}

factor in wildland fires, and the average number of acres burned per fire is much higher in lightning fires than in fires caused by humans.”

282 _Ibid.

283 _{“Welcome to the Nation’s Logistical Support Center,” National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC),}

accessed January 21, 2014, http://www.nifc.gov/.

284 _{“911 Statistics,” National Emergency Number Association, accessed January 21, 2014,}

https://www.nena.org/?page=911Statistics.

285 _{“911 Statistics.”} 286 _Ibid.

of 10 to 24.288 _{The causes of mortality include unintentional injuries (48 percent),} homicide (13 percent), and suicide (11 percent). Of the unintentional injuries, the major causes of death are vehicular injuries, poisoning, drowning, and discharge of firearms.289 The very nature of these mortalities occurs outside of a hospital, and the resulting unintentional injuries provoke a response from 911 fire and emergency services. For the purposes of establishing death and morbidity as a determinate, adolescents will be used as the representative group.