3. OBJETIVOS
1.5. Elementos de la marca
1.5.3. La forma
In concluding, it is relevant to comment on the role of GSE mortgage market activity since the two firms were placed under a government Conservatorship in September 2008. Relevant data on the home mortgage acquisitions of the GSEs and for the total home mortgage market are shown in Table 9 for 2009 and 2010. The raw numbers suggest a significant GSE and overall government role. For 2009 and 2010, annual GSE mortgage acquisitions as a percentage of total home originations was 63 percent. FHA and VA activity averaged 24 percent of total home originations over the same period, so government programs participated in 87 percent of all mortgage originations for 2009 and 2010.
The high GSE market share under the Conservatorship, however, can be misleading. First, 80 percent of all GSE mortgage acquisitions were refinanced loans, so only 20 percent of the GSE activity represented loans for home purchase. The GSE refinancing activity includes the refinancings that occurred under the Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP). In comparison, for the overall mortgage market, home refinancings represented 68 percent of total mortgage originations, leaving 32% of the originations for home purchase activity. The conclusion is that while the GSEs dominated U.S. mortgage market activity in 2009 and 2010, most of this activity was simply the refinancing of mortgage loans that had already been guaranteed by the GSEs. To be clear,
refinancing activities are certainly beneficial to the borrowers, and generally so for the GSEs as well (since they reduce the likelihood of default on these loans for which the GSEs are already at risk). On the other hand, refinancing is a zero-sum game, since the investors who are holding the higher rate mortgages will have to reinvest their money at the now lower market rates. Indeed, the Federal Reserve, U.S. Treasury, and GSEs are major holders of these GSE mortgage securities, so the HARP program is far from cost- free for the government itself.22
The GSEs also participate in the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP), along with servicers for non-GSE home mortgages. As of September 2011, the GSE share of total HAMP modifications was 52 percent, only slightly above the GSE share of all outstanding home mortgages. This suggests that the participation rate in HAMP modifications was about the same for GSE and non-GSE mortgages. Perhaps more importantly, the HAMP program is widely considered to be a disappointment: as of September 2011, just over 800 thousand loans had been modified, compared to the earlier hopes of 3 to 4 million loans.
The overall conclusion is that the primary mortgage market result of maintaining the GSEs under the government Conservatorship through 2011 appears to have been their role as a catalyst for the refinancing of their existing mortgages. In terms of funding for home purchase loans, private market lenders have actually been more active than the GSEs, even without the benefit of a government guarantee.
22
See Remy, Lucas, and Moore (2011) for a Congressional Budget Office analysis of the most recent changes in the HARP program.
Data Appendix
The Federal Reserve Flow of Funds (FoF) tables provide the longest (1945 to the present), consistent, quantification of home mortgages outstanding.23 The FoF data
include a separation between mortgages held directly in investor portfolios and those held within mortgage pools for mortgage-backed securitization (MBS), including some detail on the holders of each category. For Tables 1 and 2 and Figures 1 and 2, we apply the FoF data for the aggregate outstanding home mortgages and the separation between loans held in portfolios and in mortgage pools.
For the separation of MBS outstanding among three issuer classes, the FoF data directly quantify MBS issued by private label securitizers (PLS, meaning MBS without government or GSE backing), and the sum of GNMA and GSE data. We obtain direct measures of GNMA MBS outstanding from the Historical Statistics of the United States (with the latest 2010 data from Inside ABS), and compute the GSE MBS outstanding as the residual, (which closely aligns with direct measures of GSE MBS from the company’s own reports).24
For the separation of whole mortgages and MBS among three holder classes, the FoF data directly quantify the whole home mortgages and the securitized pools held by depository institutions (commercial banks, savings and loan associations, savings banks, and credit unions). Whole mortgages and MBS held in the retained portfolios of the GSE are obtained from the 2010 report to Congress their regulator, Federal Housing Finance
23
The FoF data are available at http://www.feder alreserve.gov/releases/z1/Current/data.htm . Home mortgages are defined as mortgages on 1 to 4 family homes, thus excluding multifamily, farm, and commercial mortgages.
24
Agency (2010), with the 2010 data obtained from the companies’ Monthly Volume reports. Whole mortgages and MBS held by other investors are computed as the residual category.
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