Fuentes del Principio de Legalidad

We estimate that the number of farmers registered for D4Ag solutions in Sub-Saharan Africa has grown at roughly 44% per year over the past three years, and likely in

the range of 50–60% CAGR over the

past eight years, to reach a total of 33 million smallholder farmers as of

the end of 2018.262, 263 _{The definition of}

registered users requires clarification (Figure 16).

Individuals vs households

This estimate counts users that may be households or individuals using the same device.

Duplication

This estimate includes duplicated users (e.g., one farmer registered for multiple D4Ag solutions). We later apply a 20% haircut to account for this.

Apples and oranges

This estimate includes users of passive solutions (savings accounts) and active solutions (market linkage apps) though use has different implications in these cases.

The definition of ‘registration’ depends on the type of solution – a farmer may be registered for an MNO simply by providing a name and phone number or texting a short code to register for the service, while registering for a government-provided solution might involve sharing census-level details. The overall figure of 33 million does not, however, account for the possibility that some proportion of registered farmers have been registered with more than one D4Ag solution, and are therefore doubly counted.266

D4Ag enterprises (including both commercial and non-profit) account for the majority of registered smallholder farmers. Commercial enterprises and

NGOs collectively reach approximately 60% (a maximum of 20 million) of registered smallholder farmers (see Figure 17). This number includes financial service providers (FSPs), which currently reach ~5.5 million farmers through digitally-enabled insurance,

Figure 17 D4Ag solutions and registered users, by type of actor

Smallholders registered by D4Ag solutions, by solution type Though small in number, government and MNO

deployments demonstrate significant reach

number of solutions and millions of smallholders, EOY 2018

# of solutions 75% 54% ~5% 20% 20% 15% 7% 1.5% 1.5% 390 2% NGO Agribusiness Government deployment MNO deployment Commercial enterprise 33M Registered users ~1%

Depending on numbers used to size the overall smallholder farmer population (i.e., individual farmers and pastoralists vs farm households), this figure represents 13% of all smallholder

farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa and up to 45%

of all smallholder farmer households in the region (the highest end of the range assumes only one user per household). The number includes farmers that have either registered themselves for D4Ag solutions, have been registered by agents, or have been registered through an enterprise (typically an agribusiness, cooperative, or financial institution) that uses a D4Ag solution provider to reach and manage relationships with smallholder farmers in its value chain.264 _{These numbers do not}

include registrations of non-farmer end-users like extension agents, government end-users of decision tools, and enterprise clients. Such actors are also users of D4Ag solutions but we do not include them here as we were not able to capture them reliably (and they were not our focus segment).265

savings, and credit solutions. As mobile payments become mainstream in many countries, recent growth in FSP activity is likely to continue.267

Mobile network operators (MNOs) and governments each account for roughly 20% of registered smallholder farmers.

MNOs have at least 6.5 million smallholder farmers registered to their D4Ag solutions, typically advisory and information services delivered with other partner organisations. Six major MNOs across the continent currently offer a total of approximately 15 D4Ag solutions.268 _{Governments similarly}

reach about 6.5 million farmers through their own D4Ag solutions.

Large agribusinesses such as Olam,269

Cargill, Mars, and ETG likely reach no more than 500,000 African

smallholder farmers with proprietary (in-house) digitally-enabled supply chain management solutions.270 _{In large}

part, this relatively low number is due to the fact that most agribusiness solutions target smallholder farmers in tight value chains – and such farmers represent a maximum of 7% of smallholder households.271 _{Input dealers}

like Yara and Syngenta and mechanisation players like John Deere are also active in the D4Ag sector; for the most part, these players, as well as big buyers and processors like Barry Callebaut, have partnered with other organisations to digitise their farmers or use third-party supply chain management solutions, so we capture their potential reach within the D4Ag enterprises category (e.g., Barry Callebaut’s reach counted as part of the SAP Rural Sourcing Management Platform).

‘Engaged’ and ‘active’

users make up a minority

of registered users

We estimate that 42% of registered smallholder farmers have engaged with D4Ag solutions to some extent – in the

MNO D4Ag solution example

Safaricom is the largest MNO in Kenya and has been a clear pioneer in the D4Ag space. Safaricom’s M-Pesa, one of the first mobile money platforms, has been a critical enabler of D4Ag in Kenya – numerous enterprises that rely on M-Pesa to operate might very well not exist without Safaricom’s leadership. Safaricom has also rolled out a suite of financial and information services for smallholder farmers through DigiFarm, which offers “discounted products, customised information on farming best practices and access to credit and other financial facilities.” Since its launch in 2017, DigiFarm has rapidly expanded throughout the country, reaching a reported 950,000 users, 20% of whom are active.

Figure 18 MNO D4Ag solutions in Africa (EOY 2018)

Madagascar Orange M-Kajy Orange M'Vola Orange HayVokra Orange Bazar.mada Airtel 3-2-1 Botswana Orange mAgri South Africa

Vodafone Connected Farmer Zimbabwe_{Econet EcoFarmer}

Mali Orange Sandji Orange Senekela Orange Garbal Nigeria Airtel 3-2-1 Côte d'Ivoire Orange mAgri Kenya Safaricom Digifarm Burkina Faso

Orange 3-2-1 Uganda_{Airtel 3-2-1}

Ghana

Vodafone Farmer's Club MTN Iska Weather Malawi Airtel M’chikumbe Senegal Orange Mlouma Somaliland Telesom M-Dalag Niger

Orange Labaroun Kassoua

DRC Vodacom 3-2-1 (42502) Zambia MTN 3-2-1 (6-6-7) Tanzania Vodacom 3-2-1 Rwanda MTN 3-2-1 Mozambique Vodacom 3-2-1

case of most solutions, at least once monthly in the past year.272 _{We propose}

engaged users as a new term to filter out farmers who are registered for digital solutions but do not use them, while also acknowledging that truly active users are currently difficult or impossible to measure in a report of this type due to the lack of consistency in definitions and the absence of comparable data. The estimate of engaged users is based on CTA- Dalberg survey data and augmented with desk research and interviews with implementers of large D4Ag solutions that did not respond to the survey – but it should not be interpreted as suggesting that the farmer is necessarily the direct user. ‘Engaged’ in this case might mean that each farmer included in this estimate has used a D4Ag solution, but it could also mean that someone – such as an agent – has helped the farmer use the application, or used it on the farmer’s behalf. Our database tracks 9.5 million ‘engaged’ users of D4Ag services, which constitutes 42% of the registered users (23 million) for whom an estimate of engaged users is available. Extrapolating to the broader D4Ag population suggests that there were ~14 million ‘engaged’ farmers utilising D4Ag solutions in 2018.

Estimating ‘active use’ – use of a digital solution frequently enough to obtain or even maximise its target benefits – is at this stage impossible, as noted above,

due to the varying definitions of active use

from one solution to another, lack of standard active use definitions even within specific use cases, and the varying levels of use necessary to realise the benefits of a solution (for example, market prices might need to be accessed daily while planting guidance might only be helpful annually). The lack of a meaningful definition of ‘active use’ or sufficiently precise data to give it parameters suggests a need for further data collection, analysis, and study on the part of enterprises, donors, and others. In any case, based on interviews and data from those studies that have attempted to measure different levels of farmer activity for specific D4Ag solutions (e.g., GSMA’s MNO mAgri case studies), it is clear that the level of truly active use is in many cases far below engaged use – e.g., active ‘power users’ accounted for just a third to half of engaged use levels in the case of many MNO solutions,leading to our provisional estimate of active users being 15–30% of registered users, cumulatively, across all use cases.273

Registrations are