5. RESULTADOS
5.1. FUNCIÓN DE LPCAT3 EN LAS REACCIONES DE REACILACIÓN DE AA
With the increasing demand for energy and ‘more crop for drop’ Sudan will continue to follow the trend of hydro-engineering within the Nile Basin. The growing demand for the waters of the Nile, particularly due to the population growth and the increasing hydro- engineering in Ethiopia, may cause disputes and strain the relations between the Nile basin countries. Sudan has not yet fully utilized its share of the waters as stated in the 1959 Nile Waters Agreement and is therefore currently initiating new dam projects and irrigation schemes. Although the water scarcity will likely hit Egypt the hardest, Sudan has embarked on a mission to develop the water-infrastructure in the northern parts of the country. New dams will lay the suitable ground for more irrigated agriculture and consequently more people will have to be displaced or their lives altered. Ideally it would be important to confirm adhering to the recommendations and guidelines given by international initiatives such as World Commission on Dams (WCD), International Rivers Network and the Nile Basin Initiative which work towards sustainable socio-economic development of these environments. Many impact assessments, policy notes and guidelines have been made that help to analyze the broader impact of hydro-engineering on the Nile, to mitigate negative
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consequences and ensure sustainable development. Protection of human rights is also vital. Indeed, the WCD states that ‘No dam should be built without the demonstrable acceptance of the affected people, and without the free, prior and informed consent of affected indigenous and tribal peoples’ (World Commission on Dams 2013). Large scale intensive irrigation projects such as New Halfa have also been put under scrutiny to assess their sustainability and viability. The International Rivers Network has stated that large scale irrigation schemes in desert climates have major drawbacks and lack sustainability in the long-term. Consequently, physical targets have not been met, costs have not been recovered and profits have been less than expected. Evaporation, salinization and water-logging of agricultural lands have also been prevalent. Furthermore, the landless and poor farmers have been displaced and the gap between the haves and the have-nots has widened. In addition, the local food security is often not improved (International Rivers Network 2004).
Therefore, regarding the new irrigation schemes it would be advisable to reassess crop choices, modernize irrigation methods and focus on good governance and sustainable maintenance (Oestigaard 2012). The development of water efficiency and methods of reducing water losses is crucial. However, the construction of dams upstream will consequently decrease evaporation downstream which can further save water. Furthermore, good governance is of paramount importance as the rights and livelihoods of the farmers will have to be safeguarded. The empowerment and inclusion of individual farmers in irrigation schemes’ management and planning will benefit the sustainability and the profitability of these schemes. The growth of water-consumptive crops such as cotton may become environmentally unsustainable in the future, but so far it is preferred as it generates export incomes well. However, it is important to make sure that the farmers receive enough income to support their livelihoods despite the fluctuations in the cash crop prices.
With this in mind the future prospects for New Halfa are challenging to outline. The Halfawi Nubians continue to migrate out of the scheme and the young generation seems more attracted to urban professions and possibilities. The nomadic groups will likely continue with their pastoral practices and participate in farming according to possibilities. The continuing flow of migrant workers and internally displaced people from other parts of Sudan will most likely play a bigger role in the future of the scheme and those already established will engage with farming activities and urban professions to a larger extend. It depends on the Sudanese government and the NHAPC management how well their presence will be acknowledged and supported within the scheme.
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One of the challenges of combining social resettlement and irrigation schemes as a development project is the lack of consideration for the future. How will the host population and the resettled population integrate and promote the development of the scheme? When will the resettled become ‘settled’ and the memory of resettlement left in the past? It is difficult to estimate the lifespan of a resettlement project and the time required for an irrigation scheme to become self-sustaining. The social and economic differentiation within the scheme that was caused by the planning has slowed down this progress and the scheme continues to be fragmented and isolated from the rest of the region. The scheme has not adequately taken the nomadic host population into consideration and they have not been attracted to leave their pastoral practices and join the scheme. For the future it is important to consider the rights and preferences of the nomads and acknowledge the economic benefits of pastoralism as a sustainable land use pattern. However as the Sudanese policies have favored large-scale agricultural development the value of the local environmental knowledge is threatened.