Gestión adaptativa

Sometime in the early 1930s, a young Army colonel was assigned a plum post: to lead officer training at Fort Benning, Georgia. Fort Benning in those days was where officers punched their ticket on the way up (up being a relative term since promotions were hard to come by in this particular age). Benning was more finishing school than military training; emphasis was placed on drill and recitation. This colonel knew better; as a staff aide to General “Blackjack” Pershing in the First World War, he saw first-hand what happens when commanders lose focus in what we now call

the “fog of war.” Repetition and elocution would not do for the fu- ture officers, so the colonel revamped the curriculum, placing em- phasis on battle maneuvers and tactics. He created exercises that simulated combat so that officers would get a taste of what it was like to make decisions not only under pressure, but with little or no concrete information. This form of training played a pivotal role in preparing those who would one day lead U.S. troops into a future conflict then looming on the horizon — World War II. The colonel was George C. Marshall and what he accomplished in

business terms was teach his charges to deal with ambiguity.9

Ambiguity is not a topic that is discussed much in many MBA programs. The emphasis in managerial education, and not without merit, is on research, analysis, and decision making. Quantitative skills are prized; after all, businesses mark progress according to predefined metrics related to development, operations, logistics, and revenues. However, the real world, as any savvy businessperson will tell you, is not reduced to columns of numbers. Ambiguity is more the rule of the day, and in fact, many leadership development programs teach and later evaluate their leaders on their ability to deal with uncertainty. Change is a constant in management, and for that reason the unknowns often outweigh the certainties, espe- cially for those in middle management who are being pushed by forces from below as well as pulled from powers from above.

Dealing with ambiguity may be more art than science. Analy- sis is paramount, but the analysis is often of people and situations rather than hard-core data. As a middle manager, learning to man- age in an ambiguous environment is essential to rising to the top, but it is also vital to the successful running of the enterprise. Your senior leadership is counting on you to demonstrate clarity. Lead- ing in ambiguity is a balancing act; it requires attentiveness to peo- ple who report to you as well as those to whom you report.

RE A D T H E SI T UAT I O N

What’s going on? That’s a question managers should ask them- selves regularly. The answers to that question will reveal what is

happening as well as what is not happening. For example, if a team is pushing to meet a deadline, this question will provide a status update (what’s happening), but if the manager pushes below the surface, she may discover that the team is moving forward, but it may not have the necessary manpower to meet the deadline (what’s not happening). It will then be up to the manager to rec- oncile this ambiguity between surface calm and disaster on the horizon. Good managers know how to handle the situation by pulling people onto the project or even pitching in themselves. The proper read resolves ambiguity for the moment.

RE A D T H E PE O P L E

Knowing what people want is essential to leading them. The easi- est way to determine need is to observe how people work and how they interact. Reading people is more than surface scanning; it in- volves reflection on performance combined with a look at what people have accomplished and what they are capable of accom- plishing. Decisions about whom to promote depend upon accu- rate reading of people. But, so too do decisions about team assignments and job rotations.

KN O W T H E OP P O S I T I O N

When George Patton put his Third Army into France after D-Day, he made a mad dash toward the German border, much to the chagrin of General Eisenhower and the horror of Field Marshall Montgomery. How could he be so rash? his critics railed. On the contrary, Patton knew his adversary, chiefly General Irwin Rommel, and knew that if he applied a blitzkrieg-like strategy toward the Wehrmacht already reeling from defeat in Normandy, he could make it to Germany. Sadly, he was pulled back, a factor that some historians think may

have prolonged the war an additional six months.10

On a more civil front, Coca Cola knows PepsiCo and vice versa; each can predict what the other will do when it comes to fighting for shelf space, vending, and fountain. As a result, both can plan ahead.

Where uncertainty comes into play is in the relatively new compet- itive landscapes that include flavored drinks and bottled waters. Since such markets are relatively new, and consumers more fickle, each tries to outdo the other in terms of discounts, coupons, and promotions. Certainty, therefore, prevails in stable markets, e.g., soda, but not in emerging markets, e.g., vitamin waters and energy drinks. It is vital to know in which market you are competing.

AC T DE C I S I V E LY

Decisiveness is a leadership hallmark; making a decision is the leader’s prerogative. Take the situation of a senior VP who must decide whether to commit research dollars to a new project or hold back to see how the market develops. Research and analysis will provide clues to the ultimate answer, but it will be up to the leader to pull the trigger on the deal. Deciding to push ahead or hang back is clear cut, but either course will have consequences. The new product may create a new opportunity, or it may not. Holding back may be a safe choice, but it could cost the company millions in lost opportunity. But making the decision is impera- tive. [When in doubt, remember this adage: Not to decide is to de- cide. That will give you the heart to act.]

RE V I S I T T H E SI T UAT I O N

Change is a force that creates ambiguity, so after you’ve decided and acted, you need to check in with the consequences of your decision. For example, if you have decided to launch a process improvement, and after six months, things are stalled, you need to find out why. It may be part of the change process, or it may be because people do not understand what they are supposed to do or lack resources to do anything about it. As the leader, it is your opportunity to read the situation and the people involved and decide again, perhaps to stay the course or to provide additional resources. Taking the time to re- visit the situation demonstrates that ambiguity is not hindering you; you are managing it.

TU N E I N T O T H E SI L E N C E

Political pundit and author, Chris Matthews, writes in Hardball that the late Tip O’Neill, Speaker of the House and Matthews’ one-time boss, always began his working day with the same question,“Whad- daya hear?” O’Neill had a voracious appetite for information about what members of the House, their constituents, and the White House were saying and doing. O’Neill was also savvy enough to

know what he didn’t know and so he would listen to the silence.11

Managers can learn from the old Boston pol by listening to what people do not say as well as how they say it. For example, if an em- ployee is saying that everything’s fine, but will not make eye contact, perhaps he is not telling the truth, not to be deceitful but because he is fearful of the consequences. Likewise, if things really are quiet, that is, no chatter in the hallway, cafeteria, and break rooms, some- thing is definitely wrong. Too much silence can be deadly.

AC T AS BE S T YO U CA N

No manager wants to make decisions in a vacuum, nor should he, but few managers will have the luxury of making decisions as one would play chess — with all the variables laid out in neat squares. What happens off the board, e.g., in the real world, may tilt the en- tire board, spilling all of the pawns, knights, bishops, plus king and queen, onto the floor. That is what happens when a new com- petitor enters the picture, the economy takes a dive, or your chief product suddenly fails. Business is about addressing uncertainty and, more important, finding ways to cope and eventually suc- ceed despite the odds. Within this environment of uncertainty, you must decide and live with the consequences. Not deciding only prolongs the uncertainty.

EM B R A C E AM B I G U I T Y

“It is the pull of opposite poles that stretches souls,” wrote Eric Hoffer. “And only stretched souls make music.” This is a theme

that Jan Carlzon implemented when he led SAS airlines. Manage- ment wants to control; creatives want to innovate. It is the leader’s responsibility to nurture the tension. Managers who lead up need to find a way to keep the analytical side of the business humming, as well as the innovation side flowing, so that there is a balance be- tween control and creativity. Such a balance may tilt more to the control side, but it can never be allowed to thwart the creative side,

otherwise the business will die from lack of original thinking.12