Habilidades Fonológicas como indicadores de las Dificultades Lectoras

Population and economic decline are not new processes. Many researchers in the English language literature have concluded that urban change can be viewed as a natural

3  Skill measured by percentage of population with college education (U.S. Census Bureau, 2010a).  

cyclical process (Hall, 1988; Hoover & Vernon, 1959; Hoyt, 1939; McKenzie, 1924). This conception of an urban lifecycle process has been principally identified by urban sociologists but also echoes the cycle theory of economics (Martinez-Fernandez, Audirac, et al., 2012).

During the Fordist industrialization era, the cyclical trends of economic, social and urban growth and decline were largely manifestations of the local economy and local decision-makers (Bontje, 2004). However, globalization has altered the spatial scale at which economic and social changes occur and their manifestation at the local level. The international synchronization of economic cycles and the increased speed and reach of media and migration have deteriorated the autonomy of local economies and decisions. Economic, social and urban theories have all reflected the distinct evolution and impact of globalization (Appadurai, 1996; Friedmann, 1986; Hirst & Thompson, 1996; Kose et al., 2003; Robertson, 1992; Sassen, 2001). Consequently, contemporary urban shrinkage is no longer considered a temporary stage of a cyclical process, but an enduring spatial symptom of globalization (Martinez-Fernandez, Audirac, et al., 2012). Considering the potential permanence of urban shrinkage, planners and decision-makers in shrinking cities need to expand the scope of local strategies to include the possibility of planned shrinkage. An increasing number of academics have similarly called for shrinking cities to “accept” their demographic reality and plan accordingly (Hollander et al., 2009; Pallagst et al., 2009; Rieniets, 2009), stating that shrinkage does not necessarily have to be negative experience and that perhaps shrinkage can be accompanied by an increase in quality of life. Some shrinking cities prove to be resilient and “bounce back” from economic and demographic decline, however considering the dependence of shrinking cities’ fate on wider economic trends, it is negligent for decision-makers to solely pursue growth strategies.

Urban shrinkage is consistently defined in the academic literature as both a demographic and economic process. Typologies focusing only on the population change of a city fail to capture the full extent of the phenomenon and miss an opportunity to demonstrate the diversity of the shrinking experience. In order to shift the preconceived notion that a shrinking city can only be prosperous through demographic growth, discussions, depictions and classifications of shrinkage need to include both causal processes. By separating demographic and economic trends in two-dimensional trajectory typology, this chapter offers

distinction advances a more nuanced understanding of shrinkage, a better structure for city comparisons and an improved baseline for planning and policy decisions.

The examination of the trajectories of 20 American shrinking cities clearly demonstrated the diversity of economic and demographic trajectory combinations. 15 of the cities experienced overall population decline while income simultaneously grew. Three of the cities lost population and gained income in every decade of the analysis. These exploratory results display the value of a two-dimensional trajectory typology and, hopefully, will incite further research examining the economic and demographic change of shrinking cities with more robust variables.

CHAPTER 3

HOW CITIES SHRINK: COMPLEX PATHWAYS TO POPULATION DECLINE

The dominant narrative of urban shrinkage research advocates that population loss and economic restructuring stem from the interplay of macro economic and demographic trends at the local scale (Rink et al., 2012). This has been well documented through case study analysis, however the linear narrative presupposed in many articles underplays the complexity of urban shrinkage processes (Hoekveld, 2012). Economic and demographic trends undoubtedly play a central role in the development of urban shrinkage, but are also part of a larger complex system complete with interdependencies and feedback loops. Rather than study these trends in isolation, the relationships between economic, demographic and other processes must be taken into consideration in order to gain a more robust understanding of the evolution of urban shrinkage. Within a nonlinear system, how do economic and demographic processes related to urban shrinkage evolve at the local scale? And furthermore, how can the complex relationships between contributing factors be captured, represented and analyzed?

Empirical research examining the dynamic processes of shrinkage is necessary in order to grasp the nonlinear interdependencies between the causes and effects (Großmann et al., 2013). Thus far the academic discourse has predominantly relied upon linear, static approaches and analysis to explore the causes, effects and extent of urban shrinkage.

Hoekveld’s (2012) work on the temporal and spatial aspects of shrinkage in the Netherlands is one of few studies to examine the complexities of shrinking trajectories. She concludes that the individual processes leading to shrinkage are strongly interrelated and display feedback mechanisms and circular causal trends.

This chapter contributes to the effort to disentangle the causes and effects in the shrinking process. It does so by examining the relationships between fifteen demographic, migratory, economic and built environment factors in two case studies over a period of

evaluate and represent complex time-series data is introduced and applied to the Canadian case studies of Chatham-Kent, Ontario and Cape Breton Regional Municipality (CBRM), Nova Scotia. The cross-correlation network analysis is used to determine the order and influence of contributing processes to urban shrinkage. The analysis unpacks the processes leading to and stemming from urban shrinkage, providing empirical confirmation of the individuality of urban shrinkage trajectories and offering insights into the complexity of shrinking city systems.