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13. TÉCNICAS DE ANÁLISIS BURSÁTIL

13.1. Análisis técnico

13.1.3. Herramientas de análisis técnico

The JSA demonstration implemented three packages of re-employment services. Eligible claimants were identified early in their claim periods, using a profiling model. These claimants were then assigned to the control group or to one of three treatments: (1) structured job search assistance, (2) individualized job search assistance, or (3) individualized job search assistance with training.

D.C. and Florida were chosen for implementing the demonstration based on plans submitted to DOL. In D.C., 8,071 eligible claimants were selected from the entire new UI claimant population during a one-year intake period (June 1995 to June 1996). In Florida, 12,042 eligible claimants were selected from new claimants in 10 local Jobs and Benefits offices over a one-year intake period (March 1995 to March 1996).3

1. Eligibility Criteria for the Demonstration

A profiling model approach developed by DOL was used to identify claimants eligible for the demonstration. This model used a two-step process, described below, to identify the claimants expected to experience long spells of unemployment.

In the first step, claimants were screened out of the demonstration if they had characteristics that suggested the demonstration services were clearly inappropriate for them. The intent was to exclude claimants who had permanent ties to their previous employer or some other reason to not actively

4This description of the timing of services assumes claimants applied for UI benefits as soon as they were laid off.

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search for work, claimants who had already been unemployed for a long time (which would nullify the early intervention goal), and claimants who faced severe obstacles to participating in the demonstration. The specific screens used in each state are discussed in Chapter III.

Then, state-specific regression models were used to predict the probability of exhaustion of benefits, and claimants with a high probability of exhaustion were chosen as the demonstration- eligible population. These regression models, which were based on a national model developed by DOL, used five variables to predict exhaustion: (1) the claimant's pre-UI industry, (2) the claimant’s pre-UI occupation, (3) the claimant’s education, (4) the claimant’s years of tenure on the pre-UI job, and (5) the local unemployment rate. These models are described in greater detail in Appendix B.

2. Re-employment Service Packages

Eligible claimants were identified as soon as the first UI payment was made. They were then randomly assigned to one of three treatment groups that received demonstration services or a control group that received regular services. The three treatment groups, as shown in Figure I.1, were offered the following services:

1. Structured Job Search Assistance (SJSA). This treatment replicated the basic job search assistance treatment tested in New Jersey. Claimants were sent a letter during the fourth week of unemployment telling them to report to a Job Service orientation session.4

Claimants reported for orientation two to three weeks later, approximately during the sixth or seventh week of unemployment.

FIGURE I.1

DESIGN OF TREATMENTS, BEGINNING WITH ORIENTATION

Treatment 1: Structured Job Search Assistance

Treatment 1 Orientation (At about Week 7 after initial claim)a

Testing (Week 7) Job Search Workshop (Week 8) Individual Assessment Interview (Week 8 or 9) Follow-up Contacts; 2 Required (Weeks 9 to 19)

Treatment 2: Individualized Job Search Assistance

Treatment 2 Orientation (At about week 7 after initial claim)

Individual Assessment Interview (Week 7 or 8) Prescribed Servicesb (Beginning as early as Week 7)

Treatment 3: Individualized Job Search Assistance with Training

Treatment 3 Orientation (At about Week 7

after initial claim)

aThe timing of orientation was expected to vary because of different timing of initial UI procedures in the two states or because of the cycle of service

delivery (see discussion of service timing in Chapters IV and V).

bPrescribed services could include testing, job search workshop, counseling, and follow-up contracts (may require more or fewer contacts than Treatment 1).

Participants also could be referred to other services for which participation was not to be monitored (for example, job clubs or use of the computerized job listings and the resource center).

The rest of Treatment 3 was the same as for Treatment 2, but demonstration staff were expected to discuss EDWAA services during the individual assessment interview, and, if deemed appropriate, the claimant was to meet with an EDWAA representative as part of the prescribed services

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At the orientation, claimants were told about the re-employment services available to them and specifically about demonstration services. They were tested the same week and scheduled for an approximately 15-hour job search workshop the following week. After the workshop, they were scheduled for a one-on-one assessment/counseling interview to discuss their re-employment plans. Attendance at this initial set of services was mandatory, unless the claimant was explicitly excused from services. Claimants who failed to participate could lose some of their UI benefits. In subsequent chapters, we describe the participation rates in each of the services and the enforcement of the participation requirements.

Individuals who continued collecting UI benefits were to have a minimum of two additional contacts with staff. These contacts could take any form. In addition, each office established a job search resource center for demonstration participants, and participants could receive any other services offered by the Job Service. However, these services were not mandatory.

2. Individualized Job Search Assistance (IJSA). This treatment was similar to the job search assistance treatment, except that a decision was made on an individual basis about the services a claimant should receive. Eligible claimants were sent a letter telling them to report for a group orientation session held during approximately their sixth or seventh week of unemployment. At that session, they were given an overview of the services available to them and scheduled for an individual assessment interview later that week or the next week. An individual service plan was developed during the assessment interview. This plan varied across individuals, but the specified services--such as testing, the job search workshop, or additional assessment/counseling interviews--were mandatory. Additional ongoing contacts could also be required. Claimants in this treatment could also receive any other services, such as placement assistance, from the Job Service, but these services were not mandatory. In subsequent chapters we describe the service participation and the use of the service plan for the typical claimant assigned to this treatment.

3. Individualized Job Search Assistance with Training (IJSA+). This treatment was identical to the second treatment, but included a special effort to enroll interested claimants in training. In all treatments, EDWAA training was described during the orientation session. Claimants who expressed interest in training were referred to EDWAA. However, in this treatment, the discussion of training opportunities during orientation was more extensive and, if possible, made by an EDWAA staff member. In addition, the possibility of training was explicitly discussed during the individual assessment interview. Any claimant who expressed interest was scheduled to talk to an EDWAA staff member. If possible, this discussion took place in the Job Service office immediately following the assessment interview.

5We also tested whether using regression models to adjust for claimant characteristics would generate different impact estimates and found that the adjusted estimates were nearly identical to the unadjusted treatment-control differences. We decided therefore to report only the unadjusted treatment-control differences.

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This “one-stop” approach to service delivery was to be facilitated by having assessment interviews on days when an EDWAA staff member could be at the Job Service office. To ensure that training was available, the states participating in the demonstration were asked to designate a portion of their EDWAA funds to provide training to members of this group.