If you’ve carefully read this book up till this point, you’d know that the main favorite wins 28% of all races. This means that if you put a win bet on 100 races by backing the main favorite to win in each race, 28 of your bets on average will win while 72 will lose. Here’s a new statistic for you to absorb. On average, 46% of all main favorites run in first, second or third. So 46% of all main favorites win the show bet (place bet for UK, Australia & New Zealand).
Vital Win Statistics for the Main Favorite • The main favorite wins 28% of all races
• The average win odds for a winning main favorite is 11/5 or $3.20 in decimals
• If you bet $1 on all main favorites for a win your loss will be $10.40 on average per 100 bets.
Vital Show/Place Statistics for the Main Favorite
• The main favorite runs in first, second or third 46% of the time • The average show odds (place odds for UK, Australia & New
Zealand) is $1.70 in decimals
• If you bet $1 on all main favorites for a show (place bet for UK, Australia & New Zealand) your loss will be $21.80 on average per 100 bets
The above figures don’t look that great since they show a steady loss. However…
What if you could pinpoint those 28% of races where the main favorite actually wins the race? Or better still, being able to pinpoint the 46% of races where the main favorite runs in first, second or third?
--You’d have a 100% strike rate, wouldn’t you? However, achieving such a strike rate is near impossible. But here’s what is feasible and yet is
extremely profitable…
The Horse Racing 4 Idiots System is Born
My first year of betting on the horses was a disaster. One week I’d be desperately searching for favorites that might win…the following week I’d be chasing better priced outsiders. I kept chasing my elusive pot of gold until I had to do my statistics assignment for my business degree. I decided to base my assignment on finding out if there was a relationship between the win odds of the favorite horse and the number of times it actually won. I’ll give you the link to download the actual assignment later in this chapter. The results of my assignment formed a solid basis which led me to focus solely on finding out why certain favorites won while others didn’t. I started
to analyze thousands of races in real time (no back testing) in order to figure out which variables were affecting the ability of the main favorite to win the race. It took me eighteen months of sixteen-hour days to shortlist the most influential variables. Believe me, it was not an easy task. I actually became frustrated and gave up analyzing the data several times. However, curiosity drove me back to my unfinished task. Eventually I finished…and I’m bloody glad I did!
Here Are the Results
I found that the main favorite in gallop/flat races, steeplechase races and hurdle races was influenced by only nine key variables. And the main
favorite in harness races was influenced by eight key variables. When all the variables were in favor of the main favorite, there was a dramatic increase in strike rate – as shown below.
With gallop/flat races, steeplechase races, hurdle races and harness races – when all the variables were in favor of the most favored horse:
• The win strike rate increased from 28% to between 47% & 68% with the average odds of $2.90 in decimals
• The show strike rate (place for UK, Australia & New Zealand)
increased from 46% to between 83% & 97% with the average odds of $1.60 in decimals
It’s not hard to see how easy it is to make consistent profits with these sorts of strike rates and odds.
How You’ll Control Your Profits and Strike Rates
As you’ve already noticed, the strike rate I’ve listed above is a range as suppose to a specific number. For instance the win strike rate is between 47% & 68%. The reason for this is because the actual strike rate you’ll
personally achieve will depend on how strictly you apply the variable filters. You see, each filter could be applied in the strictest form or in a loose form. If you apply all the filters in its loose form and the main favorite passes each
of those filters, your strike rate will be closer to 47%. However, if you only bet on main favorites that pass all the filters in their strictest form…your strike rate will be closer to 68%.
This is exactly how you’ll control your strike rate and hence profits. When applying the filters strictly, you’ll get fewer selections to bet on but your bets will become laser targeted. But when applying your filters loosely, you’ll get more selections to bet on but with a reduced strike rate. Either Way, You’ll Make Excellent Profits
Regardless of how you plan to apply your variable filters, you’ll make profits inevitably. Even if you apply your filters loosely, you still could get an average win strike rate of 47% and average show strike rate of 83%. With average win odds of $2.90, if you put $100 win bets on hundred races, your profits could be $3,630. That’s 36.3% return on your investment. And if you put $100 show/place bet on hundred races, your profits could be $3,280. And these results are from applying the filters loosely and getting the low- end of the strike rate…plus without using my money management methods.
So if you applied the filters strictly, your strike rate and profits could only improve. Applying the variable filters in their strictest form will decrease the number of selections you could bet on. However the sharp increase in your strike rate will more than make up for it. Using my money management tactics will also dramatically increase your profiting power.
As for Odds…
You have to keep in mind that the odds I’ve stated are only averages. Both the win and show/place odds will fluctuate with every bet. You won’t always get $2.90 for a win and $1.60 for a show/place. You will encounter lower odds at times and higher than average odds at other times. You could also encounter runs of high odds and low odds. However my recommended betting bank strategies such as Double Your Bank method and the
odds and minimize the effects of lower odds. Even with worse case scenario strike rates and odds, my money management methods can generate
consistent profits for you. You’ve already seen how I’ve used relatively low show/place odds such as $1.3, $1.4, $1.5, $1.6 & $1.7 to make thousands every week, very safely. You too can do the same. All you have to do is follow my simple steps – that’s it!