industries
Changes in the occupational structure refer to changes in the relative propor- tions of employed people working in different occupational groups and to quantitative changes in the entire labour force over the forecasting period. Similar to the industry forecasts presented in Chapter 3, developments in the occupational structure by industry have been anticipated in two alternative ways. The alternative occupational structures are based on a structural analysis of industries and reports produced on this analysis (Valtion taloudellinen tut- kimuskeskus [Government Institute for Economic Research] 2010a & 2010b).
Background for preparing the occupational structure forecast was obtained through examining the most recent views and reports concerning the future and, in certain special cases, exploring the views of experts from different fi elds on the internal development characteristics of these fi elds that should be taken into account when preparing the forecast. As there are no unambiguous views or facts to form a basis for devising occupational structures, opinions and emphases must be chosen from several alternatives at different phases of the anticipation work.
Change in the occupational structure of an industry is related to changes in production methods and organisation of production. New methods and tech- nologies are constantly being introduced into production, requiring new com- petencies from workers. Such changes will often obliterate some tasks while also creating new ones. This is the case regardless of whether we are speaking about production of goods, services or R&D work. The aim when estimating the change in an industry’s occupational structure is to identify the factors underlying change in a production method and the consequent change in skills needs. An occupational structure forecast represents these long-term changes in skills needs in terms of change in the occupational structure. Preparation and interpretation of occupational structure forecasts are complicated by the classifi cations used in them. Anticipation efforts therefore use rougher clas- sifi cations than occupational titles – namely, a classifi cation of occupational groups. This means that anticipation results are not tied to current occupations but to occupational groups, within which new occupations may emerge and old ones may disappear. It is likely that skills requirements will increase and be emphasised in new ways in almost all occupational groups.
Changes in the industrial structure are also refl ected in the occupational struc- ture. They may be related to the reasons described above or to major changes in the operating environment, such as market deregulation and increasing inter- national competition. As a result, employment may increase in some industries and decrease in others. This is refl ected in employment fi gures in occupations typical of industries with different development trends, thus changing the occu- pational structure. A similar phenomenon can also be detected when examin- ing change in the occupational structure within each main industry. Different employment trends in different branches of industry also change the occupa- tional structure of the main industry. The occupational structure of an industry is also infl uenced by the fact that many companies focus on their core business by outsourcing other functions. In most cases, jobs are relocated to some other industry where companies specialise in selling services to other businesses. In such cases, internal occupational structures within industries will change, but the occupational structure of the entire labour force will not necessarily change all that much.
Similar to industry forecasts, forecasts of occupational structures have also been prepared using two alternative scenarios describing basic and target develop- ment.
The basic development scenario is based on the industry developments envisaged in the basic scenario described in Chapter 3. This scenario estimates that the occupational structures of industries will mainly change in line with prior developments. Efforts have also been made to take such known changes that have taken place but are not visible in the available historical data into account when preparing occupational structure forecasts. Examples of such changes include the major structural change that hit forestry and manufacture of forest industry products in the last few years of the previous decade as well as changes to occupational classifi cations.
The target development scenario is based on a high standard of scientifi c, technological, business, environmental and service competence. Anticipation of industry-specifi c occupational structures in line with the target scenario has highlighted the following aspects in particular:
Key differences between the basic development scenario and the target development scenario