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The importance o f livestock to the Samburu people has been mentioned in the above discussion. In this section, trends in the livestock population o f the District as a whole, and where possible on the Plateau itself, are presented and discussed.

The Samburu pastoral economy is based on cattle and smallstock. The former are important economically (for their milk, blood and meat) and socially (for example, bridewealth takes the form o f cattle). Smallstock are becoming increasingly important as a form of banking as well as being an important source o f meat.

Donkeys are kept by some for transporting goods and water. Camels are increasing in importance, particularly in the drier areas, but are not suited to the cooler, wetter environment o f Lerroki.

All Samburu on the Lerroki Plateau will tell you that the numbers o f cattle have reduced drastically in the last 30 years, the reasons given being drought and, more frequently, disease, specifically ''lipis'\ the Samburu name for what is thought to be East Coast Fever (ECF). In this section I shall examine the evidence for a reduction in livestock numbers and the potential causes.

Getting accurate measurements o f livestock populations in pastoral areas is extremely difficult (ILCA 1983). Livestock populations are usually estimated in one o f three ways: from aerial surveys, in which all herds within a designated strip are counted from a low flying aircraft and the total population estimated by extrapolation (Norton- Griffiths 1978); veterinary records, which record the number o f livestock brought for

inoculation during disease outbreaks; and ground census where the number o f cattle in each person’s herd may be counted or, more usually, numbers are asked o f the owner. All three methods have drawbacks.

Aerial survey techniques are designed for randomly distributed populations and therefore require correction calculations when counting cattle populations that are generally clumped (Norton-Griffiths 1978). Aerial counts are also only reliable in very open country with little tree or bush cover, particularly in hot areas where animals tend to gather under trees for shade in the heat o f the day. Surveys tend to take place in the early morning to control for this, but are recognised to be o f limited value in high potential areas where woody cover is high (Inamdar, 1996). The problem o f early morning flights leading to an under-representation o f livestock (which may still be in their bomas) is acknowledged and aerial surveys over pastoral areas are often planned to take place later in the morning where possible (A. Inamdar, pers comm.).

Veterinary records depend on all owners taking their livestock for vaccination. While this may be required by law, frequently people will take only their best animals for inoculation, particularly where treatment is costly (Samburu District Veterinary Officer pers comm.)

Finally, in many cultures, to ask or to count the number o f animals in a herd is extremely unreliable. This may be (1) for cultural reasons ( the Samburu and the Turkana believe that to count the number o f cattle, or children, is to tempt fate (Dahl & Hjort, 1976)); (2) for practical reasons (where one m an’s herd is scattered over a wide area under different management units as may occur in Samburu (Spencer 1965) it may be impossible physically to count the herds); (3) for economic reasons

(historical precedent such as the imposition o f a tax based on cattle herd size by the British colonial administration (Kerven 1992) makes it economically unwise for any man to disclose the number o f cattle he owns); (4) for political reasons (the

distribution o f free food rations in the area acts as another incentive for people to understate the number o f livestock they own as it might precipitate more frequent food distribution if the area is thought o f as being relatively poor); or (5) for reasons o f scale (rapid fluctuations in livestock populations in any one area through death and

m igration, resulting from the pulse-like productivity typical o f arid and sem i-arid areas, tend to render counts at any one m om ent in tim e or place redundant). All data referring to livestock num bers m ust therefore be interpreted w ith caution and like should be com pared to like: e.g. aerial survey results should be com pared only with other aerial survey results. A sum m ary o f livestock population estim ates is shown in Figure 2-7. Ô O O c o 700 r 600 500 400 300 200 — ~ s a. ^ 100 0 o°: o o XX X o XX X Xo X % X OqOl c® o Cattle X Shoats o o — (N 0 \ O S o O s O o o o oo O s o ON ON Y ear

F ig u re 2-7 Livestock populations for Sam buru District, 1910-1993. D ata and sources used in com piling the graph is given in A ppendix 1.

In sum m ary both cattle and small stock estim ates were very low at the start o f the century, follow ing the rinderpest and contagious bovine pleuro pneum onia (CBPP) epidem ics and droughts at the end o f the nineteenth century described above. The graph shows a considerable and sustained rise in sm allstock num bers, w ith a dip around 1980. The cattle population rose throughout the first h a lf o f the century, peaking at the end o f the 6 0 s '\ Betw een 1969 and 1980 the cattle population crashed. U ncorrected data from aerial census surveys (Table 2.7), show this decrease in cattle num bers and increase in the sm allstock population since the late 1960s in m ore detail.

The Veterinary Department began inoculations for CBPP in Samburu in 1925 and for rinderpest in 1935 and 1943, largely out o f fear o f the diseases spreading to the settler areas to the south (Sobania 1979). In 1951 the Provincial Commissioner o f the Northern Frontier District banned all animal inoculations in the district (Sobania 1979) as part o f the destocking policy at the forefront o f

government policy in the area at the time which may explain the lack o f herd growth during the 1950s. 66

T able 2.7 Uncorrected cattle and smallstock estimates for Samburu Districts from Aerial Surveys, 1968-1993.

Year (month) Cattle Shoats

estimate s.e. estimate s.e.

1968" (August) 448,261 57,479 318,453 73,337 1977" (Oct) 222,465 60,151 358,731 65,214 1981 "(Feb) 105,247 47,148 198,835 29,727 1 9 8 7 '(Oct) 146,041 19,881 460,280 48,199 1990" (Oct) 168,088 26,229 409,745 58,177 1992" (Oct) 117,395 17,307 430,948 37,837 1993" (Sept) 116,523 22,193 549,579 103,704 "Watson 1972

^Raw data from DRSRS

^Peden 1984, from KREMU count, data unadjusted for observer’s biases

The decline in cattle population since 1968 is statistically significant (Fi,s = 6.80, P<0.05, r^ = 0.58, population estimates were weighted to the inverse o f their corresponding variances, Inamdar, 1996). The cause of this decrease, however, is open to some conjecture. The main reasons quoted by both Samburu and local veterinary officers are disease, particularly Lipis or ECF, and drought.

The trends in Table 2.7 correspond closely with drought years shown in Figure 2-3. Following the drought in 1971, cattle losses were estimated at 40% while drought in

1983/84 and 1990/1992 are both estimated to have caused cattle losses o f 40 - 60% and smallstock losses o f 20-30% (District Livestock Development Office Annual Reports).

However, this does not rule out the role played by ECF in depleting cattle numbers. The Samburu claim that ECF was unknown in their herds before the 1970s and official records indicate cattle losses o f around 32% in 1979 due to ECF (District Livestock Development Office Annual Reports). Given the severity o f the losses and the conviction that ECF is largely responsible, the disease will be considered here in more detail.

ECF is a tick borne disease, caused by the protozoa Theileria parva which is thought to have originated in buffalo populations in eastern Africa (Norval et al. 1992). Being a tick borne disease, it is ecosystemic, its epidemiology involving the ecology o f the land and o f the vector as well as that o f the herd (Waller & Homewood, in press). The disease was first recognised in European herds at the turn o f the century when two separate endemics were starting in southern and eastern Africa (Norval et al.,

1992). Prior to the endemic, ECF was unknown in southern Africa, however, Norval et al. (1992) cite research carried out in Uganda in the 1930s where the disease had been known “for generations”. The research showed 80-90% infection rates in calves, with mortality between 10% and 40%. Similar reports are cited from Rwanda,

Tanganyika, the Belgian Congo, Northern Rhodesia (Zambia) and Nyasaland (Malawi) (Norval et al. 1992 p47).

The spread o f the disease in European stock is well documented. By 1910, a particularly virulent strain o f the disease was prevalent in East Africa, seriously disrupting efforts to introduce the more susceptible European breeds. Control o f the disease met with little success in East Africa, partly because researchers were unaware o f the ability o f cattle to become carriers o f T. parva (Norval et al. 1992). Losses in the indigenous Boran and Zebu stock are less well known, but Norval et al. (1992) cite losses o f “approximately half a million cattle” in the Maasai Reserve in 1919-20 “as a result o f ECF, rinderpest and contagious bovine pleuro pneumonia”.

It has been suggested (M. Rainy pers comm.) that Samburu cattle may have been naturally immune to ECF prior to the endemic seen in the European herds (also Waller, 1988 for Maasai cattle). Immunisation and dipping programs enforced during the latter part o f the colonial period and early independence to prevent tick borne diseases could have reduced any naturally inherited immunity to the disease leaving herds vulnerable to infection, particularly when dipping programs became less strictly enforced. W aller & Homewood (in press) report the emergence o f acaricide

resistance among Maasai herds, following an extensive dipping programme in the 1960s, which lead to disease reservoirs and carriers within increasingly vulnerable herds. According to elders on the plateau, Lipis now tends to afflict calves and not adult cattle, an indication o f an improvement in natural immunity which seems to support such a scenario.

A serological test to detect ECF antibodies was not found until 1972 and even today the great majority o f mortalities pass officially unrecorded and undiagnosed. Few cases are brought to vets for accurate diagnosis since a cure for ECF costs around KSh 6,200 ( about £100 at 1995 exchange rates) compared to the purchasing price o f a new young heifer o f around KSh 8,000, and the disease works very rapidly, killing the cow in a few days. Evidence that supports the argument that ECF is relatively new to Lerroki is, therefore, circumstantial, and stems from the fact that prior to the

1970s the plateau provided dry season grazing to herds from the lowlands to the north and east. Sperling (1987: 74) states that “formerly, those in the Wamba lowlands migrated up to Lerroki to take advantage o f the heavy rains and lush grazing in June, July and August. However, since East Coast Fever spread through the highlands in

1976, killing up to 60% o f the cattle, lowlanders have deemed such a move too risky.” This correlates with my own observations that cattle grazing in and around the forest all came from the areas on the plateau and the elders’ claims that in the past cattle would come from as far as Baragoi and Wamba. Loss o f livestock at the start o f the

1970s due to drought may have contributed to the rise o f East Coast Fever since fewer cattle would have resulted in a build up o f long grass and a potential increase in tick populations (Waller, 1988).

Another potential drain on livestock populations is due to sale in response to cash needs to buy food and to pay for school fees. It is unlikely, however that that the sale o f cattle for money would be enough to prevent the long term build up o f herds for two reasons. Firstly, smallstock are much more readily sold for cash needs and despite a dip in the smallstock population in 1981, sheep and goat numbers have continued to rise. Secondly, Perlov (1983) found that most cattle sales involved selling old stock to purchase younger animals to rejuvenate the herd and replace losses due to disease and slaughter. Sales recorded within this study were well within the levels o f expected herd growth.

The decrease in livestock numbers is o f great significance when compared with the increase in human population over the same period. The number o f Tropical

Livestock Units per head (1 TLU = 250kg = 1 cattle or 11 shoats) has decreased from 6 in 1969 to 1.5 in 1989 - way below the minimum number needed to support a

person on cattle products alone (estimated at around 10 cattle per person, Grandin, 1991; Dahl & Hjort, 1976).