3.1 TRATAMIENTO PARA LAS PATOLOGÍAS EN EL CONCRETO
3.1.1 IMPERFECCIONES EN LAS LOSAS DE CONCRETO
Ukraine saw democratic breakthroughs in 2014. These were domestic in origin, but the EU provided essential support. Despite massive Russian military and economic pressure, Ukraine held presidential elections in May and parliamentary elections in October, which were largely given a clean bill of health by the OSCE’s ODIHR. Slovakia has played a coordinating role in pressing for political reform on behalf of EU states. An EU advisory mission on civilian security sector reform, with 50 experts and a budget of €13 million, began its two-year mandate in December. While the importance of security sector reform is not in doubt, the timing of this mission is questionable.
Annexed Crimea has been dispossessed of democracy. Sham elections in September followed the sham referendum in March, and the 270,000-strong Crimean Tatar community face human rights abuses and the threat that their religious and political organisations will be banned and replaced by pro-Russian alternatives. A similar lack of democracy exists in the Donbas, alongside insecurity and a looming humanitarian disaster.
Moldova held elections in November, which were marred by the last-minute banning of the pro-Russian Patria party, and entrenched vested interests remain strong. In Georgia, selective and blatantly political prosecutions have become increasingly common and obviously targeted against the opposition United National Movement. Local elections in June were competitive, but resulted in a clean sweep for the ruling party, Georgian Dream, and a new round of charges came immediately afterwards. There was talk of liberalisation in Armenia, where the ruling class, which is traditionally linked to the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh, is growing old in office. Azerbaijan, however, has used the crisis to crack down hard on activists and domestic and foreign- funded NGOs while the world’s attention has been elsewhere. Azerbaijan’s position as Chair of the Council of Europe provided a convenient cover story. In Belarus, Alyaksandr Lukashenka has used the crisis to widen his political base and has won some support from nationalists anxious about statehood.
22 RULE OF LAW, DEMOCRACY, AND HUMAN
RIGHTS IN THE EASTERN NEIGHBOURHOOD
There has been obvious, but difficult, progress in Ukraine. The picture elsewhere in the region is less positive.
2011 2012 2013 2014
Unity
4 3 34
Resources
3 4 43
Outcome
1 1 48
Total 8/20 8/20 11/20 15/20 2011B+
C 2012 C 2013 B-WIDER EUROPE / Eastern Neighbourhood
EU markets were unilaterally opened for Ukraine in April, allowing Ukrainian exporters duty-free access, initially for six months and then until the start of 2016. Questionable Ukrainian statistics report that exports from Ukraine to the EU in the first half of 2014 increased by 25 percent, offsetting the reduction in Ukraine’s exports to Russia (down by 24.5 percent). Ukraine’s Association Agreement was finally signed in June. But then, in June, the EU delayed DCFTA implementation for a year. The initiative for the delay was Germany’s, and the idea was to encourage Russia to back off in Ukraine. However, it deprived the Ukrainian government of a crucial instrument with which to push through other reforms (and even blame the EU for the pain of transition). And it did not appease Russia, which simply pocketed the concession and demanded the renegotiation of the whole agreement. The EU also fast-tracked the signing of Association Agreements with Georgia and Moldova in June to protect both states from Russian pressure. Moldova was, perhaps, marked too highly, given the perceived importance of backing the
existing government before elections in November. With Georgia, the move came in spite of political prosecutions and a flat- lining economy.
Armenia has shown some signs of having second thoughts about joining the Russia- led Eurasian Union, largely because Yerevan did not want to set up a customs border with Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenia’s ruling elite is still tightly integrated with the Russian oligarchy and Armenia’s key concern is maintaining the Russian security umbrella.
Overall, trade has scored lower because, while Europe made rapid progress with DCFTAs in Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova, the rest of the picture is mixed. The Czech Republic, France, Germany, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Romania, Slovakia, Sweden, and the UK deserve mentions for their sustained bilateral assistance in the region. But there is a real question mark over the future health of the Ukrainian, Moldovan, and Georgian economies. EU trade agreements will not protect the three countries from Russian sanctions.
23 RELATIONS WITH THE EASTERN
NEIGHBOURHOOD ON TRADE
The EU used the prospect of trade agreements well during the Ukraine protests, but missed an opportunity in delaying implementation of Ukraine’s DCFTA.
2011 2012 2013 2014
Unity
5 4 45
Resources
4 5 44
Outcome
6 7 55
Total 15/2016/20 13/20 14/20 2011B+
B+ 2012 A- 2013 BWIDER EUROPE / Eastern Neighbourhood
Visas remain issue number one in terms of public opinion in the six Eastern Partnership states. The EU will probably never move as fast as local opinion would wish, but progress has been made with Moldova, Ukraine, and Georgia. Given the dramatic circumstances, this is a considerable acceleration of the process. Moldova has long been ahead of the other five, having done the preparatory work required by its Visa Liberalisation Action Plan (VLAP), but it also benefited from the EU’s decision to show political support for governments under Russian pressure during the Ukraine crisis. Moldova was, therefore, granted visa-free status at the end of April, allowing all Moldovan citizens with a biometric passport to travel throughout the Schengen Zone states. It was not possible to accelerate Ukrainians towards visa-free travel in the same way, as the action plan had been proceeding slowly under Yanukovych. But in May 2014, the EU moved Ukraine onto the second phase of the visa liberalisation process, during which the EU checks on the implementation
of laws that have already been passed. Ukraine will introduce biometric passports early in 2015.
Georgia was moved to the second phase of its VLAP in October 2014. An EU-Armenia visa facilitation agreement came into force on 1 January 2014, and a similar agreement was made with Azerbaijan on 1 September. In January 2014, taking advantage of Belarus’ desire for a more balanced foreign policy, Brussels launched negotiations on visa facilitation and readmission with Minsk. Because it borders Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland, Belarus tends to take a high number of Schengen visas (and travel within the region was even more frequent before enlargement in 2004).
24 VISA LIBERALISATION WITH THE
EASTERN NEIGHBOURHOOD
Visa liberalisation moved forward with Ukraine and Georgia, and Moldova achieved visa-free status in April.
2011 2012 2013 2014
Unity
4 3 35
Resources
3 3 34
Outcome
5 5 67
Total 12/20 11/20 12/20 16/20 2011A-
B- 2012 B- 2013 B-WIDER EUROPE / Eastern Neighbourhood
In 2014 Europe’s energy relations with the eastern neighbourhood were clouded by the events in Ukraine. One issue was the security problem in the east of Ukraine; another, the threat that gas supply to European customers through Ukraine would be interrupted after Ukraine was unable to secure gas from Russia for four and half months. With the help of the European Commission, and particularly the vice-president in charge of energy, Günther Oettinger, Russia and Ukraine signed an interim gas deal to supply gas to Ukraine for the winter of 2014, thus avoiding further escalation and possible interruption of gas deliveries to European consumers.
The EU and its member states worked closely with Ukraine to open up a physical interconnector between Slovakia and Ukraine that would allow the country to import gas from Europe, thereby reducing its dependency on Russian gas and minimising its vulnerability to Gazprom’s pricing policy. All in all, in 2014 Ukraine has moved closer to the European
energy framework, aligning its energy market institutions with the EU acquis communautaire on energy.
Meanwhile, Europe’s energy relations with other ENP countries were steadier in 2014 – cooperation with Moldova, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Kosovo, Macedonia, Albania, and Montenegro proceeded within the Energy Community organisation. In 2014 these countries amended and adopted various laws and regulations aimed at streamlining their energy sector organisations to match the EU acquis on energy.
25 RELATIONS WITH THE EASTERN
NEIGHBOURHOOD ON ENERGY
Important steps were taken in 2014, notably the European Commission- brokered Russia- Ukraine deal on gas supply to Ukraine.