Implementación del enfoque de Procesos

Chang (2001) documented that the primary tourism sectors’ multipliers reduce aggregation errors and increase flexibility in terms of applying multipliers to spending in different categories. Our study computed the tourism primary sectors’ multipliers to assess the important activities of tourism. The aggregated seven primary tourism sectors identified in Table 3.6 (see Chapter 3) were used to estimate the output, income, value added, employment and import multipliers in 2008 in the Lao PDR (see Table 4.15).

4.4.5.1 Output multiplier

Among the tourism related sectors, retail trade/shopping activity yielded the highest output multiplier of normal multipliers (2.20). However, the recreation sector produced the highest ratio multiplier (9.57). The miscellaneous and food and beverages sectors yielded significant normal multipliers of 2.05 and 1.77, respectively. The transportation and communication sector produced significantly lower output multipliers of 1.10 and 1.18, respectively (see Table 4.15). The recreation and entertainment (7.96 and 9.57) and the accommodation (4.30 and 5.06) sectors ranked first and second for the Type I and Type II multipliers, which were well above the average Type I of 3.81 and Type II of 4.38.

4.4.5.2 Income multiplier

The recreation and entertainment and shopping sectors were the two most significant income generating activities based on the normal multipliers because their total multipliers of 1.61 and 1.34, respectively, were significantly higher than the average income multiplier of 0.90. However, in terms of the ratio multipliers, shopping (2.82 and 4.15) and food and beverages activities (2.49 and 4.09) were the two most important activities based on Type I and Type II multipliers (ratio multipliers) (see Table 4.15). For income multipliers, based on normal multipliers, communication and transportation activities were least important but, based on ratio multipliers, the communications and miscellaneous sectors were the least important primary tourism activities in the country. These activities’ income multipliers are lower than the average income multiplier of all activities. The results showed that normal and ratio multipliers generate opposite directions of patterns for income multipliers’ impacts, for example, food and beverages activity was the fourth most important activity based on the normal multiplier but second most important by the ratio multiplier measure. Similar results were reported by Liu et al. (1984) in Turkey and Mazumder et al. (2009) in Malaysia.

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Table 4.15 Output, income, employment value added, and import multipliers of the Lao PDR tourism primary sector activities (2008).

Output

Normal multipliers Ratio multipliers

Direct Indirect Induced Total

Rank Type I Type II Rank

a b c (a+b+c) (a+b)/a (a+b+c)/a

ACCOMMOD 0.32637 1.07808 0.24948 1.65392 4 4.30324 5.06763 2 FOOD&BEV 0.50437 1.13233 0.14302 1.77972 3 3.24506 3.52862 5 SHOPPING 0.60421 1.24169 0.35466 2.20056 1 3.05508 3.64206 4 TRANSPOR 0.44270 0.50641 0.15939 1.10851 7 2.14392 2.50397 7 REC&ENTE 0.15486 1.07808 0.24948 1.48242 5 7.96146 9.57239 1 COMMUNIC 0.45486 0.67808 0.04948 1.18242 6 2.49073 2.59950 6 MISCELLA 0.54662 1.36912 0.14136 2.05710 2 3.50469 3.76330 3 Average 0.43343 1.01197 0.19241 1.63781 3.81488 4.38249 Income ACCOMMOD 0.36760 0.29912 0.27102 0.93774 3 1.81370 2.55097 5 FOOD&BEV 0.22301 0.33243 0.35845 0.91389 4 2.49061 4.09792 2 SHOPPING 0.32412 0.59166 0.43142 1.34720 2 2.82542 4.15646 1 TRANSPOR 0.15952 0.17552 0.10241 0.43745 7 2.10027 2.74226 4 REC&ENTE 0.44523 0.76144 0.41034 1.61701 1 2.71021 3.63184 3 COMMUNIC 0.22700 0.11253 0.11034 0.44987 6 1.49575 1.98183 7 MISCELLA 0.25652 0.13922 0.22954 0.62528 5 1.54271 2.43753 6 Average 0.28614 0.34456 0.27336 0.90406 2.13981 3.08554 Value Added ACCOMMOD 0.25496 0.21872 0.22626 0.69994 4 1.85787 2.74529 4 FOOD&BEV 0.24206 0.21153 0.32025 0.77384 3 1.87387 3.19692 2 SHOPPING 0.16851 0.28122 0.32789 0.77761 2 2.66890 4.61472 1 TRANSPOR 0.25791 0.25744 0.13024 0.64558 5 1.99819 2.50316 5 REC&ENTE 0.28175 0.25447 0.32231 0.85854 1 1.90318 3.04713 3 COMMUNIC 0.29850 0.21123 0.12704 0.63677 6 1.70761 2.13319 7 MISCELLA 0.22924 0.15445 0.17165 0.55534 7 1.67375 2.42256 6 Average 0.24756 0.22701 0.23223 0.70680 1.95477 2.95185 Employment ACCOMMOD 0.35765 0.19496 0.04436 0.59697 3 1.54513 1.66916 2 FOOD&BEV 0.36331 0.28992 0.02564 0.67886 2 1.79798 1.86854 1 SHOPPING 0.27126 0.06641 0.05464 0.39230 5 1.24482 1.44624 5 TRANSPOR 0.25043 0.02542 0.07529 0.35113 6 1.10152 1.40214 6 REC&ENTE 0.62913 0.19553 0.08623 0.91088 1 1.31079 1.44785 4 COMMUNIC 0.12128 0.01121 0.02564 0.15812 7 1.09242 1.30379 7 MISCELLA 0.32839 0.12560 0.04973 0.50371 4 1.38247 1.53389 3 Average 0.33163 0.12986 0.05164 0.51314 1.35359 1.52452 Import ACCOMMOD 0.48992 0.25225 0.22778 0.96996 1 1.51488 1.97982 4 FOOD&BEV 0.42525 0.35355 0.05597 0.83477 6 1.83141 1.96302 5 SHOPPING 0.46178 0.32145 0.16807 0.95130 2 1.69610 2.06005 3 TRANSPOR 0.37209 0.26458 0.28977 0.92643 3 1.71105 2.48981 1 REC&ENTE 0.45562 0.33255 0.05631 0.84448 5 1.72988 1.85346 6 COMMUNIC 0.39992 0.23851 0.26930 0.90774 4 1.59639 2.26978 2 MISCELLA 0.41227 0.23422 0.08586 0.73235 7 1.56813 1.77640 7 Average 0.43098 0.28530 0.16472 0.88100 1.66398 2.05605

Source: Lao PDR I-O Tables 2003 and 2008 using SimSIP SAM Software

Note: In terms of normal and ratio multipliers, Rank 1 to 7 indicates the relative significance and importance of each of the seven tourism primary activities where 1 is the most important and the 7 is the least important. ACCOMMOD = Accommodations, FOOD&BEV = Food and beverages, SHOPPING = Retail trade, TRANSPOR = Transportation, REC&ENTE = Recreation and entertainment, COMMUNIC = Communication, MISCELLA = Miscellaneous

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4.4.5.3 Value added multiplier

The largest value added multiplier of 0.85 was generated by the recreation and entertainment sector followed by the shopping sector with a value added multiplier of 0.77 (see Table 4.15). A value added multiplier estimates the effect on the value added generated from the production of a dollar of output for final demand, which is the income of the GDP account of an economy. The food and beverages and accommodation sectors were the third and fourth most important sectors based on the normal multipliers of value added. The miscellaneous and communication sectors appeared to be the least important activities with the lowest ratio multipliers of 2.42 and 2.13 as Type II multipliers, respectively, which are lower than the average Type II multiplier of 2.95. These sectors are considered to have weak linkages with other economic activities in the economy in generating the households’ income in the country. The shopping (Type I: 2.66 and Type II: 4.61) and food and beverages (Type I: 1.87 and Type II: 3.19) activities were the two most important sectors, generating the highest ratio value added multipliers in the tourism sector.

4.4.5.4 Employment multiplier

In terms of the employment multiplier, the recreation and entertainment sector again had the highest normal multiplier of 0.91, followed by the food and beverages sector with 0.67 (see Table 4.15). The third most important sector was the accommodation activity with a 0.59 normal multiplier, which was above the estimated average multiplier of all sectors of 0.51. When the ratio multipliers are considered, the results showed that the food and beverages (Type I: 1.79 and Type II: 1.86) and the accommodation (Type I: 1.54 and Type II: 1.66) activities yield higher multipliers than the average multipliers (Type I: 1.35 and Type II: 1.52) of all activities. The transportation and communication sectors have relatively lower ratio multipliers and ranked sixth and seventh, which was well below the average of all primary tourism sectors’ multipliers.

4.4.5.5 Import multiplier

In terms of the direct import multiplier, the accommodation sector was the highest import multiplier generator with a value of 0.48 followed by the shopping sector (0.46). The higher the import multiplier, the greater the value of tourism receipts leaking out of the economy. The miscellaneous and food and beverage sectors generated the lowest import direct multipliers of 0.41 and 0.42, respectively (see Table 4.15). These sectors are relatively more dependent on local products for the tourism sector in Lao PDR. Similarly, the transportation (1.71 and 2.48) and communication (1.59 and 2.26) sectors have the two highest Type I and Type II multipliers (ratio multipliers), well above the average multipliers of 1.66 for Type I

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and 2.05 for Type II. The higher the propensity to import, the lower the resultant value of the multipliers and the lower the benefits to the economy (WTO, 1981).

Table 4.16 shows the tourism output and income multipliers for different economies around the world. Our study results generated a tourism income multiplier of 0.34 and tourism output multiplier of 1.54 for the Lao PDR economy in 2008. Even in 1990, Khan, Seng and Cheong (1990) study showed an output multiplier of 2.0 and income multiplier of 0.94 of the tourism sector in Singapore, which are significantly higher than Lao PDR.

Table 4.16 Tourism output and income multipliers of selected countries.

Country Multipliers Sources

Output Income

Turkey 1.52 2.03 Liu et al. (1984)

Yugoslavia 3.56 1.99 Janez (1979, cited in Liu et al. (1984)

Bermuda 2.66 1.22 Archer and Fletcher (1990) and Archer (1995) Singapore 2.00 0.94 Khan, Seng and Cheong (1990)

Bahamas 2.25 0.88 Archer and Fletcher (1990) Tanzania 1.59 0.85 Curry (1986)

Philippines 1.87 0.82 Santos et al. (1983) and Fletcher (1989)

Fiji - 0.82 Curry (1986)

Nepal - 0.72 Curry (1986)

Kenya 1.81 0.64 Summary (1987)

Korea 1.42 - Song and Ahn ((1983 cited in Fletcher (1989) Malta 0.86 0.56 Briguglio, Johnson and Thomas (1992) Malaysia 1.41 0.35 Mazumder et al. (2009)

Lao PDR 1.54 0.34 Our study

A tourism impact study in Malaysia by Mazumder et al. (2009) derived multipliers close to our study’s results; with output multipliers of 1.41 and input multiplier of 0.35 (see Table 4.16). Similarly, for the Philippines, Santos et al. (1983) and Archer (1990) reported a tourism output multiplier of 1.87 and a tourism income multiplier of 0.82. Stynes (1999) revealed that income and output multipliers are lower in countries that depend heavily on imported goods and services and higher in those that are relatively self-sufficient. Our study multipliers (output 1.54 and income 0.34) were less than other countries (see Table 4.16). For example, Turkey, Bermuda, Korea, Malaysia, Tanzania and Singapore are well developed and their tourism sectors are inter-linked with other economic sectors which relies more on domestic economy. On the other hand, Lao PDR has a centrally controlled close economy for a long time and the economic reform for the market economy has just begun in 2005. The agriculture and manufacturing sectors are subsistence in nature and mining and quarrying, forestry and logging and electricity and water supply have started to dominate the country’s economy. The tourism sector’s annual imports are increasing at 58 percent and the domestic production is

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also increasing but at lower rate of 21 percent in the country impacting negatively in the output and income multiplier.