Importancia y psicología de las opiniones

However, contraceptive use, like all behaviour, depends on the strength of motivation and on the cost (economic and psychological) of implementing the behaviour. The desire to avoid further childbearing measures only the direction of motivation, not its strength.

Table 5.8 Logistic Regression Model of Whether at Least One Live Birth Occurred During 1982-85 on Selected Characteristics for Non-pregnant,

Non-Sterilized, Exposed Women Who Wanted No More Children

V ariable C o e ffic ie n t S tan d ard X2

as o f 1982 (L og odds) erro r

C o n sta n t -.624 b .226 7.6 b

N u m b e r o f liv in g ch ild ren 9.0 b

0-1 -.337 ns .248 2-3 -.182 ns .159 4+ .519 b .188 Age@ 66.2 a <35 1.366 a .164 35-39 -.031 ns .173 4 0 + -1.335 a .181 D u ra tio n o f m a rriage 12.5 a < 10 .490 a .138 10+ -.490 a .138

C o n tra cep tio n (T im e 1)

N o n -u se r .617 a .145

17.2 a

U se r (m o d em ) -.637 a .166

U se r (trad itio n al) .020 ns .112

P lace o f r e sid e n c e

U rb an -.507 c .212

6.2 c

R u ral .046 ns .171

E sta te .461 ns .296

H u sb a n d ’s d esire for m ore ch ild ren

W a n t m ore .245 d .141

3.0 d

W a n t n o m o re -.245 d .141

H u sb a n d & w ife e d u ca tio n

B o th less ed u c a te d -.489 c .228

10.6 b

H us. ed u cated ; w ife less -.395 ns .268

W ife ed u cated ; h u sb a n d less .979 a .314

B o th e d u cated -.095 ns .205

H u sb a n d & w ife ed u ca tio n * D u r a tio n o f m a rria g e 9.2 c

<10 10+

B o th less e d u cated -.473 b (.183) .473 b (.183)

H u sb a n d ed u cated ; w ife less -.151 ns (.193) .151 ns (.193)

W ife ed u cated ; h u sb a n d less .519 c (.240) -.519 C (.240)

B o th e d u cated .105 ns (.151) -.105 ns (.151)

H u sb a n d & w ife e d u ca tio n * H u sb a n d ’s d esire for m o re ch ild ren 8.2 d

W a n t m ore W a n t no m o re

B oth less e d u c a te d -.498 c (.201) .498 c (.201)

H u sb an d ed u cated ; w ife less -.077 ns (.259) .077 ns (.259)

W ife ed u cated ; h u sb an d less .463 c (.242) -.463 c (.242)

B oth e d u c a te d .112 ns (.194) -.1 1 2 ns (.194)

L ik e lih o o d ra tio X 2 w ith 167 d .f 179.7

P ro b a b ility .238

Notes: a -P < 0 .0 0 1 , b - P < 0 .0 1 , c - P <0.05, d - P < 0 .1 0 , ns - not significant. In the last 2 panels, figures in parentheses are standard errors; others are coefficients. @ - Women aged <25 at Time 1 were combined with the 25-34 group. This grouping was found to be important for its significance in the model and also of the categories within the variable. Unlike the regression model in Table 5.6, this model refers only to women who wanted no more childeren, whose age structure is older than that of women in Table 5.6.

For those women who wanted to cease childbearing at Time 1 contraception made a large difference to subsequent fertility. Non-contraceptors at Time 1 are estimated to have been about three and half times (e-617 +-637=3.50) as likely as contraceptors using modem methods to have had a birth in the inter-survey period (Table 5.8). Consistent with the relationship observed in the univariate situation, women residing in the estate sector were found to have behaved more inconsistently than those residing in urban or rural areas. In the early 1980s the estates introduced incentive programs for workers such as better wages, maternity leave with pay for a maximum of two children and improvements in maternity care. The expected overall improvement in the health of estate women in consequence of these initiatives could have promoted higher fertility, and therefore inconsistency between stated reproductive desires and behaviour. Moreover, since most estate residents were Indian Tamils, the ethnic problems between the Tamil minority and the majority Sinhalese which started in 1983 may also have influenced some women to reverse preferences to cease childbearing.

The greater avoidance of unwanted births among urban women may be related to a suspected higher frequency of induced abortions in urban areas than elsewhere in the country. Even though abortions are legally prohibited in Sri Lanka, Langford (1982) and Caldwell et al. (1987) believe that most couples know of both modem surgical and traditional methods of abortion and probably could obtain an abortion if they wished to. The majority of those who oppose abortion, especially medical termination, do so on the ground that it is dangerous rather than that it is immoral. For cultural reasons and also to satisfy religious factions no government has given any encouragement to the practice of induced abortion; but at the same time there has been no attempt to close down institutions where illegal abortions are performed.11

The main effect logit coefficients on husband’s desire for another child at Time 1 are significantly related to inter-survey fertility. Women who at Time 1 believed that their husbands did not want them to cease childbearing are estimated to have been more

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11 Induced abortion is illegal in Sri Lanka, except where necessary to save the life of the mother, one could in theory be prosecuted for performing abortions.

inconsistent than those whose husbands agreed with them that childbearing should cease. Moreover, a strong interaction effect emerged between husband’s desire for more children and level of education of husband and wife, the latter variable also interacting with duration of marriage. In general, except where both husband and wife were less educated, women in each educational category were more likely to have had a child between surveys if their husbands wanted another child than if they did not (Figure 5.3). Irrespective of whether the husband wanted another child or not, the largest probability of having a birth in the inter-survey period for wives who wanted no more children was found among couples comprising an educated wife and a less educated husband.

Almost the same pattern of interaction emerged between the level of education of a couple and their duration of marriage (Figure 5.4). Women married for less than 10 years who were educated and had less educated husbands ranked the highest on inconsistency, twice as high as the combination of an educated husband and a less educated wife and three times as high as couples where both were less educated with the same marriage duration. In the higher duration category (10+ years), the same educational category shows the highest inconsistency, but the differences between educational categories are nowhere near as dramatic as those for the less than 10 years duration category.

A comparison of main effect coefficients for husband’s and wife’s education clearly indicates less inconsistency among the women in the first two categories (both less educated, and husband educated, wife less educated) than in the last two (Table 5.8). If only wife’s education were to be used as a dichotomous variable, less educated women (less than six years of schooling) would compose the first two categories, and better educated women the last two. The question therefore is, why did educated women in general, and educated women married to less educated men in particular, fail to behave according to their preferences? Part of the inconsistency could relate to the intensity of the cessation motive of the wife and also to disagreement with husbands’ preferences; although all of the wives wanted to cease childbearing, not all of their husbands agreed.

i

(1

9

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Figure 5.3 Estimated Probability of Having a Live Birth 1982-85 for Women Who Wanted No More Children by Level of Education and Husband’s

Preference for More Children

Husband wants more (1982) Husband wants no more (1982)

0.4 - Both educated Wife educated husband less Husband educated wife less Both less educated

Level of education (1982)

Figure 5.4 Estimated Probability of Having a Live Birth 1982-85 for Women Who Wanted No More Children by Level of Education and Marital Duration

Marital duration <10 (1982) Marital duration 10+ (1982) Both educated Wife educated husband less Husband educated wife less Both less educated

Coombs and Chang (1981) found the same type of higher inconsistency among better educated women in Taiwan and believed that with rising education it might be important to obtain information on reproductive preferences from both marital partners. To address from another angle, this complex question of why educated women in general, and educated women married to less educated husbands in particular, failed to avoid births, methods of contraception used at Time 1 and Time 2 were examined (Table 5.9).

Table 5.9 Percentage Distributions of Non-pregnant, Non-sterilized, Exposed Women Who Desired No More Children at Time 1 by Current Method of Contraception

at Time 1 and Time 2 by Education of Husband and Wife, 1982 SLCPS Re-interviewed Subsample and 1985 Follow-up Sample

Education M odem Traditional A ll N on Total N

(T im e 1) m ethods m ethods methods user

1982 SLCPS R e-interview ed Subsam ple

Both less educated 14.5 38.0 52.5 47.3 100.0 179

Hus. edu; w ife less 20.9 4 7 .8 68.7 31.3 100.0 134

W ife edu; hus. less 19.8 51.2 71.0 29.0 100.0 86

Both educated 23.9 56.5 80.4 19.6 100.0 310

A ll 20.5 49.5 70.0 30.0 100.0 709

1985 SLCS (F ollow -up Sam ple)

Both less educated 29 .2 37.5 66.7 33.3 100.0 168

Hus. edu; w ife less 35.7 38.8 74.5 2 5 .6 100.0 129

W ife edu; hus. less 37.8 4 0 .2 78.0 2 2 .0 100.0 82

Both educated 29.4 4 8 .5 77.9 22.1 100.0 303

A ll 3 1 .5 42.5 74.0 26.0 100.0 682*

Source: Longitudinal data tape 1982-85.

Notes: Traditional methods include rhythm, withdrawal and other traditional methods (See Table A 4.3). * - Currently pregnant wom en in 1985 (27 cases) were excluded.

The proportion not contracepting was highest among the less educated couples and lowest among the educated ones; even though the differences were narrowing it is clear that at both Time 1 and Time 2 better educated women practised contraception more than less educated women. The expectation is that those who used no contraception would have had more births in the inter-survey period than the others. Therefore, there is a clear doubt whether part of the inconsistency observed between preference and

behaviour among the educational categories related to the non-use of contraception. In each educational category about 70 per cent of users at Time 1 relied on traditional methods and the rest on modem methods, while at Time 2 traditional method contraception had declined. The success of traditional methods of contraception such as rhythm or withdrawal largely depends on co-operation between the husband and wife. The findings indicate that such co-operation was more likely to be lacking when better educated women were married to less educated husbands (Figures 5.3 and 5.4). The same educational group was found to be the foremost in using traditional methods of contraception to control their fertility among those women who believed that their husbands, contrary to their own wishes, wanted another child (Table A5.6). On the other hand the inconsistency levels of this group and of better educated women in general may have been inflated because the less educated were able to utilize an uncounted fertility inhibiter: induced abortion.

It is likely that between the two surveys less educated women would have conceived more frequently than better educated women because they had poor communication with their husbands on family planning issues (Kane and Sivasubramaniam 1989) and were more likely to be ignorant of contraceptive methods. It is possible that more unwanted pregnancies among these less educated women than among the better educated were terminated by induced abortions, so that the former group became less likely to have behaved inconsistently with their stated reproductive preferences. The unhygienic conditions and uncertain legal status of abortion clinics may have meant that very few better educated women were attracted to these clinics.^ This proposition is reasonable because educated wives in Sri Lanka rely more heavily than less educated wives on traditional as compared to modem methods of contraception (Family Health Bureau 1984:40; Family Health International 1986:92; Gajanayake 1989:186; Caldwell et al. 1987:4). Even though there is no statistical proof for the argument, greater use of abortion is a likely explanation for the observed higher consistency among the less

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12 In many developing countries where researchers are concerned with the health of women, factual information on abortion is