Imputación Hot Deck

The value of integrated hydro-economic analysis to inform water resources planning has been widely recognised, with many examples of applications to the management of coupled agricul- tural groundwater systems. A limitation of previous hydro-economic assessments of groundwater systems is that models have simplified substantially the representation of farmers’ individual wa- ter use decision making and the dynamic response of the hydrological system to those decisions. In this thesis, some of these shortcomings have been addressed by developing a hydro-economic framework that analyses explicitly the variables that influence irrigation behaviour, such as well yield and soil moisture, at the spatial and temporal scales that are relevant for understanding

trade-offs between agricultural production and groundwater sustainability. Application of the model to case studies in one of the largest areas of groundwater-fed irrigation in the world, the High Plains aquifer in the United States, has demonstrated that well yield is an important constraint on irrigated area and the demand for groundwater. Moreover, it was shown that consideration of the dynamic feedbacks that occur between well yield and individual producer behaviour, which are not accounted for in any existing hydro-economic model, is a prerequisite for evaluating the long-term value of groundwater management options. These findings are of greatest relevance to those aquifers where well yields are a limiting factor for agricultural produc- tion, either due to reductions in yields caused by over-exploitation of groundwater, for example in the U.S. High Plains (McGuire, 2014) or the Indo-Gangetic Plains (Rodell et al., 2009), or due to the fact that yields are naturally low due to geological characteristics, such as the hard- rock groundwater systems in Sub-Saharan Africa (MacDonald et al., 2012) and southern India (Shah et al., 2007). However, given that rapid depletion of groundwater resources is a commonly observed problem in almost all areas of intensive irrigated agriculture, the results and modelling approach that are presented in this thesis therefore can be valuable for informing global efforts to improve management of coupled agricultural groundwater systems. Future work should aim to expand the focus of the current model, for example to incorporate additional aspects of pro- ducer decision making, multiple abstraction boreholes, and regional-scale hydrological processes, to facilitate wider analysis of the management of coupled agricultural groundwater systems. It is hoped that the insights that are generated will contribute to more resilient and sustainable man- agement of groundwater-fed irrigation, and will improve the linkages between hydro-economic research and desired real-world policy outcomes.

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