4.5. Estándares aplicables o criterios
4.5.2.1. Incumplimiento de políticas, planes, programas, actividades, metas y presupuestos.
The following description of the stages of a scenario exercise will give task managers a
background in its practical requirements. This description should enable task managers to
lead a simplified scenario analysis process, make a significant contribution to a scenario
team, or work knowledgeably with private sector consultants.
Stages of the Scenario Process
There are no fixed rules for how to carry out a scenario analysis, but several stages occur in
almost every case. The actual creation of scenarios takes place with a group in a workshop.
The organizers need to carry out a number of activities before the first and last workshops.
The four broad stages to the process follow.
1. Preparation. A number of tasks need to be carried out before the scenario workshops. They
include defining the scope of scenario use, choosing and interviewing the scenario team, and
preparing background material for the workshops. These are crucial steps in the process,
because they help the task manager build confidence in the scenario exercise and gain an
early understanding of the issues that will be most important to participants.
2. Building the scenarios. This process can occur in one workshop, or two held back to back.
Together the scenario team determines the focus of the intervention identifies and prioritizes
the key external factors that will affect its success, sets them in a matrix to differentiate their
effects, and writes simple scenario plots.
3. Investigating and writing the scenarios. This exercise is carried out between workshops.
The task manager and core team gather relevant qualitative and quantitative information to
determine whether the assumptions made in the scenarios are accurate. Decision makers from
the scenario team should write more finished drafts of the scenarios.
4. Using the scenarios to plan strategy. In this workshop, the scenario team goes over the
finished scenarios and looks at the implications for the strategic decision being made.
Specific external signposts of changes in the key forces are also identified at this stage.
4.0 Conclusion
Scenarios have been used to guide large capital investments in transportation, landfill
development, and city planning. Special emphasis is also placed on likely voter pressures,
larger political and demographic trends, and ways to ensure continued political support for
projects once they are underway. Scenarios can help create the best long-term strategies for
continued growth and flexibility for states and regions. The unit also presents stages of
scenario process; although there are no fixed rules for how to carry out a scenario analysis,
but several stages occur in almost every case. However, the fo llowing p rocesses were
suggested by the unit; these are: Managing risk; Building consensus for change; Augment
understanding about the future;
5.0 Summary
There is no doubt that there has been significant restructuring going on in both the public and
private sectors for the past ten years and there is speculation that it will continue for a number
of years yet. The restructuring includes various strategies. Downsizing, mergers, acquisitions,
and outsourcing are some of the more common strategies employed. This unit has made you
to understand that after managers have downsized their workforce they like to think that they
have achieved greater employee productivity. However, in a lot of cases, this means
achieving more and facing more challenges with fewer staff. To cope with this conundrum,
attempts to achieve greater productivity have focused attention on developing team-based
organizations, reducing hierarchy, empowering workers, and developing creativity in
organization (Theobald 1994).
Downsizing has been very prominent in recent years and consists of a reduction in employees
aimed at reducing costs and/or altering the organization‘s structure
6.0 Tutor-Marked Assignments
What are the Stages of the Scenario Process?
7.0 REFERENCES AND FURTHER READINGS
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Schwartz, P. (2000). The Official Future, Self -Delusion and the Value of Scenarios.
Financial Times. Mastering Risk, Part Two. May 2. 1996. The Art of the
Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World. New York:
Doubleday.
Schwartz, P., & Ogilvy, J. A. (1998). Plotting Your Scenarios. In Learning from the Future:
Competitive Foresight Scenarios. 57-80.
Wilson, I. (1998). Mental Maps of the Future: An Intuitive Logics Approach to Scenarios.
In Learning from the Future: Competitive Foresight Scenarios. 81-108.
Brown, R. (1997), The Changing Shape of Work, MacMillan, Press, London.
Burrell, S. & Stutchbury M. (1995). Australia Rebuilds: The Recovery We Had to Have, Financial Review Library, Sydney.
Caplow, T. (1964). Principles of Organisation, Harcourt, Brace & Court, New York.
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Chow, L. (1997), =Pain down under‘, Far Eastern Economic Review, vol.160, no.44, p. 57.
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Cummings T., & Worley C. (1997). Organisation Development and Change, South-Western College Publishing, Cincinnati.
Dutton J., & Penner W. (1993). =The importance of organisational identity for strategic
Agenda building‘ in J. Hendry, G. Johnson & J. Newton (eds.), Strategic Thinking:
Leadership and the Management of Change, John Wiley & Sons, Chichester, pp. 89-113.
Genus A. 1998, The Management of Change: Perspectives and Practice, International Thomson Business Press, London.
Hannan M., & Freeman, J. (1977). =The population ecology of organisations‘ The American Journal of Sociology, vol.82, pp. 929-64.
Hellgren B. & Melin L. (1994). =The role of strategists' ways-of-thinking in strategic change processes‘ in J. Hendry, G. Johnson & J. Newton (eds.), Strategic Thinking: Leadership
and the Management of Change, John Wiley & Sons, Chichester, pp. 47-68.
Hogan, E. A. & Overmyer-Day, L. (1994). =The psychology of mergers and acquisitions‘, in C. L. Cooper & I.T. Robertson (eds.), International Review of Industrial and
Organizational Psychology, vol.9, John Wiley & Sons, New York.
Lenz, R. T. (1994). =Strategic management and organisational learning: a meta -theory of
executive leadership‘ in J. Hendry, G. Johnson & J. Newton (eds.), Strategic Thinking:
Leadership and the Management of Change, John Wiley & Sons, Chichester, pp. 153- 179.
Lipsig-Mumme, C. (1997). =The politics of the new service economy‘, In P. James, W. F. Veit & S. Wright (eds.), Work of the future: Global perspectives, Allen & Unwin, Sydney.
Littler, C.R., Dunford, R., Bramble, T. & Hede, A. (1997). =The dynamics of downsizing in Australia and New Zealand‘, Asia Pacific Journal of Human Resources, vol. 35, no. 1.
McDonald, K. (1997). =Social transformations: New problems, new possibilities‘, In P. James W.F. Veit & S. Wright (eds.), Work of the future: Global perspectives, Allen and Unwin, Sydney.
McRae, H. (1994) The World in 2020: Power, Culture and Prosperity: a Vision of the Future, Harper Collins, London.
Nankervis, A. R., Compton, R. L. & McCarthy, T. E. (1999) Strategic Human Resource Management, 3rd edn., Nelson, Melbourne
Pullar-Strecker, T. (1997). =Telstra shapes up for competition‘ , Communications International,vol.24, no.6, pp.50-54.
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Simmons, D. E. & Bramble, T. (1996). =Workplace reform at the South East Queens
Electricity Board, 1984-1994‘, Journal of Industrial Relations, vol.38, no.2, pp.213-240.
Theobald, R. (1994) =New success criteria for a turbulent world, Planning Review, vol.22, no.6, pp. 10-13.
UNIT 2 TYPES OF RESTRUCTURING CONTENTS