Recovery focuses on the “timely restoration, strengthening, and revitalization of infrastructure; housing; and a sustainable economy; as well as the health, social, cultural, historic, and environmental fabric of communities affected by a catastrophic incident” (DHS, 2011a, p. 15).
The eight recovery core capabilities are: 1. Planning
2. Public information and warning 3. Operational coordination 4. Economic recovery 5. Health and social services 6. Housing
7. Infrastructure systems
With regard to specialized capabilities that intelligence has identified as important, FDNY addressed two major issues, implementing the principals of a tiered response and decentralization. One of the key principals of the National Response Framework, on a national level a tiered response, suggests that catastrophic events are best handled locally with additional layers of government assistance (e.g., state or federal) added only as required (DHS, 2014, pp. 5–6). FDNY utilizes this principle to assign units that possess the appropriate level of training and equipment for the mission at hand. In the past, only the special operations units had the training and equipment for many of the disciplines required to respond to various terrorist attacks. Now, other units receive the appropriate levels of training to respond to specific aspects of this type of operation.
Decentralization is a principle that spreads out capabilities that are unique but that could prove essential. This can be crucial in the event of these capabilities being lost as a result of the attack or isolation of capabilities through the loss of infrastructure, such as bridges and tunnels—both of which have been reported as potential targets. In regard to the five mission areas defined in PPD-8, the FDNY has demonstrated that it has a significant role in fulfilling the NPG as well as the ability to utilize intelligence to fulfill this role (DHS, 2014, p. 1).
B. THE FDNY’S ROLE IN THE VARIOUS FORMS OF TERRORIST ATTACK
To determine the intelligence requirements of FDNY, its role in the five mission areas has been established. In this section, the fictionalized accounts of terrorist attacks that were developed as training scenarios in the NPS and NPS: AT are analyzed to determine what the role of FDNY is in response to the various forms of terrorist attacks. To aid in this goal, this thesis includes an analysis of real attacks, both attempted and successful, upon the nation since September 11, 2001, pertinent trending attack patterns around the world, and some modes of attack that were assessed in the SNRA but not developed into scenarios in the NPS and NPS: AT.
The NPS consists of 15 all-hazard scenarios for use in homeland security preparedness activities. The NPS: AT (also known as attack prequels) are an addition to the NPS. These scenarios are used by all levels of government in planning for potential terrorist attacks and natural disasters. In the NPS, the scenario begins from the time of the attack and is intended to aid in planning the response phase. In contrast, the scenarios in the NPS: AT begin with the conception of the attack and end with the culmination of the attack. The prequels offer the scenario leading up to each of the terrorist attacks listed in the NPS (DHS, 2006b, pp. ii–iii).
The objective in developing these scenarios was to establish scenarios that were able to assist with both the development and the testing of the various capabilities required to fulfill the homeland security mission. Twelve of the scenarios represent terrorist attacks, and three represent naturally occurring events. For each of the 12 terrorism-related national planning scenarios, FEMA partnered with I&A and other IC and LE experts for their development (DHS, 2006b).
The 15 national planning scenarios are:
Scenario 1: Nuclear Detonation—improvised nuclear device Scenario 2: Biological Attack—aerosol anthrax
Scenario 3: Biological Disease Outbreak—pandemic influenza Scenario 4: Biological Attack—plague
Scenario 5: Chemical Attack—blister agent
Scenario 6: Chemical Attack—toxic industrial chemicals Scenario 7: Chemical Attack—nerve agent
Scenario 8: Chemical Attack—chlorine tank explosion Scenario 9: Natural Disaster—major earthquake Scenario 10: Natural Disaster—major hurricane
Scenario 11: Radiological Attack—radiological dispersal device
Scenario 12: Explosives Attack—bombing using improvised explosive device
Scenario 13: Biological Attack—food contamination Scenario 14: Biological Attack—foreign animal disease Scenario 15: Cyber Attack
To support the analysis of the NPS, I used reports from the Heritage Foundation as an up to date representation of terrorist plots and attacks against the homeland since
9/1/2001. The main report utilized is 60 Terrorist Plots Since 9/11: Continued Lessons in Domestic Counterterrorism (Zuckerman et al., 2013). This report reviews the first 60 terrorist attacks that have been attempted within the U.S. since September 11, 2001. Additionally, the Heritage Foundation has published several other reports updating the initial report, including 67 Islamist Terrorist Plots Since 9/11: Spike in Plots Inspired by Terrorist Groups, Unrest in Middle East (Inserra & Phillips, 2015) and several reports of individual attacks, the most recent of which is regarding the 73rd terrorist plot against the U.S. homeland.
The intent of the NPS is to establish the minimum number of scenarios required to develop and test the various mission areas. In order to accomplish this, NPS did not cover or covered only superficially several scenarios that were addressed in the SNRA. A scenario with significant homeland security implications that was not addressed in either was an EMP attack. However, the SNRA did cover space weather, which for the purposes of the FS is very similar to an EMP. In addition, while cyber-attacks were covered in the NPS, the SNRA elaborates on this by adding the classification of cyber- attacks against physical infrastructure, which would have greater consequences for the FS.
Finally, I assessed some of the large-scale attacks that have occurred around the globe that are considered by FDNY to be of exceptional significance and to represent a new tactic. These included: the 2008 attack on Mumbai, the 2013 attack on the Westgate Shopping Mall in Nairobi, Kenya, and the 2015 attacks in Paris and San Bernardino. The FDNY classifies attacks of this type as Mumbai-style attacks. According to the FDNY, some of the characteristics of this type of attack include: multiple attackers that are mobile, multiple targets, and combined weapons, including active shooters and fire and/or explosives (CTDP, 2009). I conclude that in every type of attack examined, a significant response of the FDNY would be required.