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In the field of shipbuilding it is far more difficult to determine the concept of output capacity than it is in other branches of activity, in which so many tons per day are processed or produced, or so many units of relatively fungible or homogeneous product as oil, steel or even cars.

The variety of types of ships built in the world is considerable and it seems to have kept increasing since steel construction began. Furthermore, the different types of ships are subdivided more and more into classes of size. The differences between the ships built by the various yards in one year make it difficult to find a common method for estimating total output and it is even hard to determine from which elements, in each case, the most realistic production capacity is likely to be obtained.

a) G r o s s t o n n a g e a n d c o m p e n s a t e d t o n n a g e

The traditional standard unit measuring merchant ships is the gross registered ton (grt), which is generally adopted to calculate the shipyards’ output. Unfortunately, due to the diversification of technical development already mentioned above, which

has marked shipbuilding since the end of World War II, the gross registered ton is not as significant as originally, and is no longer suitable for taking all the relevant factors into consideration, as shown, for instance, by the fact that, in value, the gross ton of a cargo-liner is five times more expensive than that of a mammoth tanker.

At the end of the first part of this report, the concept of compensated gross registered ton (c.grt) has been introduced. This unit is calculated by applying a minimizing or maximizing coefficient to the gross ton of each group of ships, classified by type and, if necessary, by size.

This unit corresponds much better to the value added by the shipyard than the conventional evaluation in gross tonnage.

Up to now, however, the application of compensated tonnage has been restricted to statistics made within the AWES (Association of West European Shipbuilders). But this unit was introduced in 1967 only, and, with the exception of France, where a similar method has been used for about 10 years, there are no statistics made out in this unit for earlier years.

In 1968, the Japanese shipbuilders accepted to adopt the compensated gross registered ton for their statistics on production, but those of Lloyd’s Register covering world shipbuilding, except a few socialist countries, are still calculated in gross registered tons. Consequently, when trying to study the past trend of world shipbuilding, only figures in gross tonnage are available. The comparison can be made from one year to the other, because the evolution of techniques is not suffi­ ciently rapid to modify the average value of the gross registered ton to any great extent in such short period of time. But this is not so in the case of longer periods. Within the scope of this survey, however, world output since 1960 has been estimated in compensated gross tonnage; the figures obtained have been compared to world production in gross tonnage as published by Lloyd’s Register. The c.grt/grt ratio diminished during that period, from 0.9 in 1960 to 0.8 in 1965-66, and further to 0.7 in 1967-68. 0

It can therefore be assessed that the recent swell in annual output figures and orders of the world shipbuilding industry reflects to a large extent that more very large ships are being built. The actual increase in output capacity is thus not so paramount as it seems when only figures in gross tonnage are considered.

b) L a c k o f u n i f o r m i n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f p r o d u c t i o n c r i t e r i a Still greater than the difficulties in accurately measuring the actual output of the world’s shipyards is the lack of precision of the concept itself of output capacity. Each shipyard, taken individually, must be in a position to assess if its achieved or anticipated output corresponds more or less to its optimum capacity, calculated according to its own financial, social and technical data. But individual situations vary considerably throughout the world, first between the various national industries and then between each firm in any country.

Even in the same country, shipyards differ, in size and type of ships built, labour force employed, equipment available, working methods applied and importance of complementary or connected activities (repairing, engine-building, etc...). (1) Cf. the relevant curves on Figure E in chapter VIII.

This is why the c.grt is not a completely satisfactory unit, particularly when trying to make forecasts. The evaluation of production in compensated tonnage is, to a certain extent, related to the types of ship and categories of shipyard involved. 4. Fluctuations of supply in shipbuilding

a) P a s t e x p e r i e n c e

In the past, considerable fluctuations were observed in world shipbuilding output calculated in grt and the newbuilding supply had to show great elasticity in order to satisfy the rapidly growing demand, especially in the periods after both world wars.

In 1919, launchings all over the world reached 7m. grt and this level of annual output was obtained again only in 1942. In 1943, world production was nearly twice as high as in the preceding year and reached almost 14m. grt for the countries covered then by Lloyd’s Register of Shipping returns alone.

On the other hand, during the depression, a very rapid decline in the production rate was noticed. From 1930 to 1933 annual launchings fell from 2 200 000 grt to less than 500 000 grt.

Over a more recent period, i.e. since the end of the Second World War, the level of 7m. grt was reached again only in 1957. That of 14m. grt has been only exceeded since 1966.

In the meantime, from 1959 to 1961, world shipbuilding output suffered a period of decline corresponding to the fall-off in freight rates which followed the re-opening of the Suez Canal after its first blocking.

Since 1962, in order to comply with requirements, the increase of which has accelerated in the course of the last few years, most shipyards have been able to raise their production in grt, despite a reduction in the labour force employed in the industry in the main producing countries.

At the beginning of the period, this increase was mainly due to the Japanese shipyards which succeeded in satisfying half the world demand for newbuildings, calculated in grt, thanks to a dynamic policy which has been sustained since the Korea war and openly supported by the Japanese Government. In fact, this Government has seen that selling to foreign shipowners is a means of developing exports without coming up against geographical quota or tariff walls which are limiting international expansion of other Japanese industries.

In recent years, however, the West European shipyards, which had stayed on the defensive too long, have, in their turn, recorded a strong increase in business and set vast investment programs in order to hold or to recover a competitive position on the international scene.

b) C o n d i t i o n s o f t h e r e c e n t i n c r e a s e i n t h e l e v e l o f t h e w o r l d s h i p b u i l d i n g o u t p u t

This increase in production was made possible by different methods: overtime work, shift work, employment of labour force and equipment of other activities for shipbuilding, subcontracting, even of the hull of certain ships.

Thus, as in the past, shipbuilding has shown great elasticity which, even taking into account the growing proportion of world production, now building large vessels, has made it possible to raise the output, in grt, of many shipyards, from 20 to 30%, without the yards having had to change the structure of their pro­ duction facilities.

However, mainly during recent times, considerable investments have been made and others are planned.

With the accelerated trend towards large tonnages, mammoth building docks, powerful hoisting devices and automation of steel hull production have been introduced and the result has been something of the nature of a technological revolution.

Although these achievements were often accompanied by the dismantling of old installations, they do, in most cases, result in an increase in the potential of pro­ duction facilities of the main Japanese shipyards and of a certain number of European ones.

Despite the mechanization and automation of production methods, a bottleneck exists at present as to manpower, due to the world-wide tendency towards a reduc­ tion of the labour force in the industry, which has already been mentioned. The main shipyards are, however, undertaking training programmes, in order to obtain a skilled labour force and reach their target of increased output.

c) A d a p t a t i o n o f f u t u r e d e m a n d

Under the circumstances, the comparison between the foreseeable development of the output capacity and newbuilding needs involves two distinct questions:

1. Taking into account the discrepancy, which will remain in the foreseeable future, between the target theoretical capacity and the actual maximum output, will world shipbuilding be able to satisfy expected medium term demand quan­ titatively and qualitatively?

2. What is the proportion of the actual annual output of the world’s shipyards which corresponds to the elasticity of the newbuilding supply, in the short term? This second question has to be asked, as it does seem that the demand of the recent past has noticeably anticipated future short term needs for newbuildings. It would thus seem normal that a slackening in the rate of ordering should occur in the near future.

This slackening, the extent and duration of which cannot be foreseen because they basically depend on aleatory factors, could, however, be sufficient to entail, at the level of deliveries (the correct difference in time being taken into account), a reduction in the output of ships completed per annum, if not in compensated tonnage, at least in gross tonnage.

A phenomenon of this type, frequent in the past, is not alarming on the world scale as long as it remains within the normal limits of the elasticity of newbuilding supply.

At the level of individual companies, the problems resulting from a possible fall- off in business are different in shipyards which have increased their output by

basing themselves on the “labour force” factor, from those in the shipyards which have invested in transforming the very structure of their production facilities. In fact, to be able to base an opinion on valid statistics, it would have been necessary to clearly check what represents a real increase in the output capacity and what is due to the elasticity of the industry, when considering the spectacular increase in world shipbuilding.

Such an analysis would make it possible to introduce a concept of “optimum capacity” which would correspond to the output reached by shipyards with normal utilisation of their facilities and labour force.

To study this question, it would be necessary to consider the main shipbuilding countries individually, and, within each one, the different situations in each ship­ yard.