Interpretación de la prueba

Given the findings of this thesis and the recognized limitations due to sample size, it is recommended any future study on this subject be a robust multi–year field type study covering a minimum of three years (ideally five) to provide a larger statistical sample. A field study of this length should provide ground truth with regards to non–severe hail and non–severe winds, which may also play a significant role in total cloud lightning

behavior. The inclusion of non–severe winds could introduce another significant piece to this puzzle as there was no way to evaluate this aspect of thunderstorm phenomena in this study. Although such a field study is major undertaking, this type of study is required to strengthen the indicated relationships found in this thesis.

This thesis also provides some tools to the operational forecast sector that can be put to use immediately. Among the tools are that lightning jumps do precede severe weather, but also lightning jumps tend to have a specific behavior depending on how their parent thunderstorm is changing. The changes in the thunderstorm at the time of the lightning jumps are identifiable on the WSR-88D. This means the lightning jump can give the forecasters an idea of which cell needs immediate attention when there are many cells active. The use of lightning jumps is not intended to be a standalone technique as this thesis helps to clarify the link between radar signatures and lightning behavior changes. The links can provide an early warning of significant changes occurring in the thunderstorm as the refresh rate of total lightning networks is as fast at 30 seconds while the radar can be as long as six minutes. A good operational forecaster will be able to take these tools, and quickly apply them to aid the forecaster to make a faster warning

determination with confidence. To determine this combined approach to improve forecast warning reliability and lead time, an operational forecast verification study should be done.

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