In 2013, Russia’s GDP was $2.21 trillion, and its defense expenditure was $68.2 billion. The major difference in defense spending is that Russia uses nearly half of its budget on the State Armaments Programme—a procurement of arms program though the state-owned defense industry.202 This shows that its foreign policy is based on increasing its hard power capabilities, and not just paying its service members like Brazil. The Russian Navy is far superior to that of Brazil. The Russian Navy has almost twice the number of personnel (130,000), eight times the submarine fleet (64), and twice the surface combatants (33). The Russian Army has 2,550 tanks and the ability to transport up to 243—if all amphibious ships were deployed.203 Its personnel, including Army and Airborne at 285,000, account for almost 100,000 more troops than Brazil. Brazil does not have a comparable tank inventory in Russia, but it does have an equal force within its own border based on the amount Russia could deploy in a conflict. The Russian Air Force has 1389 combat aircraft and 150,000 personnel, which is far superior to the Brazilian Air Force. When compared to Russia, Brazil has a long time before it can possess comparable capabilities.204
202 International Institute for Strategic Studies, “Chapter 5: Russia and Eurasia,” The Military Balance 114, no. 1 (2013), 163.
203 Ibid., 181, 184. 204 Ibid., 181–182.
1. India
In 2013, Brazil was equivalent to India in economic growth and defense spending. India’s GDP was 1.97 trillion, and its defense spending was estimated at $36 billion. India, similar to Russia, has a much larger military than Brazil. India’s Army at 1.1 million personnel and almost 2900 tanks is far from comparable to Brazil. The Indian Navy has 58,350 personnel, 14 submarines, and 25 surface combatants. India’s Air Force has 127,000 personnel and 866 combat aircraft, which is also no match for the Brazilian Air Force. The Indian military is extremely large in numbers to counter its regional competition with Pakistan, Russia, and China. Its ability to project its military limits its Army to deploying 63 tanks if all of its capable ships are loaded out simultaneously. This ability to deploy tanks is strikingly similar to Brazil’s capability.205
2. China
China is the richest and strongest member of the BRIC nations. In 2013, China’s GDP was $9 trillion, and its defense expenditure was approximately $146 billion. This puts the GDP and defense spending just over four times that of Brazil. The Chinese military is also unmatched on all fronts when compared to Brazil. The Chinese Navy has 235,000 personnel, 70 submarines, and 70 surface combatants. Its Navy also has the ability to transfer approximately 300 tanks if all transport vessels are loaded out simultaneously. The Chinese Army has 1.6 million personnel and about 6800 tanks in its inventory. The Chinese Air Force has 398,000 personnel and 2200 combat aircraft. These capabilities give China the hard power capabilities of a regional power and a significant force as a global competitor to the United States. It would take Brazil years to produce a military of this size, even if it had an incentive to do so.206
This chapter showed that Brazil is far from surpassing the military capabilities of the United States, China, Russia, and India. Brazil is slowly acquiring assets and technology, and it is increasing defense spending to give the perception of becoming a
205 International Institute for Strategic Studies, “Chapter 6: Asia,” The Military Balance 114, no. 1 (2014), 241–245.
comparable global power—as it remains a middle power in terms of its military strength. Its defense spending does not match up with the ambitions outlined in Brazilian foreign policy and the national security strategy. To build beyond the basic security forces in each branch service requires far more allocation of resources rather than spending close to 70 percent of funding on personnel. Technology and future military assets will continue to be a pipedream if military expenditure does not undergo reform, and the stagnating economy will only present further challenges to acquiring these capabilities. For Brazil to achieve global power status, it would need approximately four times the military assets (including personnel), weapons grade nuclear technology, and stronger defense partnerships to allow for the development of its hard power capabilities. Since Brazil has the economic capacity but lacks the military capabilities for consideration as a global power, the final chapter assessed its soft power capabilities to determine its status in the international community.
IV.
BRAZILIAN SOFT POWER PROJECTION
Brazil is the most active Latin American country to exercise foreign policy outside of the region. With an active role in the UN, IMF, World Bank, peacekeeping operations, and various other international organizations, Brazil has a unique ability to project soft power as a global player. This ability to use soft power sets Brazil up as a global power despite its lack of military capabilities.
This chapter will focus on soft power diplomacy and international influence measured through Brazil’s role in IOs, peacekeeping operations, trade, and cultural influence. These four aspects of international relations are indicators of exerting political and economic influence beyond the state and region. The four sections of this chapter aim to explain Brazil’s foreign policy in terms of liberalism and realism. The first section will provide an analysis of these two schools of thought in international relations that will provide the framework for assessing Brazil’s global power status vis-à-vis soft power. The second section assesses Brazil’s role in international organizations and participation in the IMF, World Bank, OAS, Unasur, and the UN. The third section will provide a brief history of Brazil’s peacekeeping involvement and its current operation in the United Nations Mission in Haiti (MINUSTAH). The final section will assess trade among the emerging blocs and Brazil’s role, and will explain its level of regional and global influence vis-à-vis Mercosur.