4.4 RESULTADO DE LA INVESTIGACIÓN BIBLIOGRÁFICA
4.4.5 INVESTIGAR SOBRE LOS EFECTOS DE LAS ACCIONES REALIZADAS
A banking sector that eff ectively channels savings into investment is crucial to private sector development, but Tajikistan has a poor record of providing fi rms access to fi nance. In its Global Competitiveness Report
2016–2017, the World Economic Forum ranks Tajikistan at 105 among
138 economies for fi nancial market development. In Doing Business 2017, the World Bank ranks it at 118 among 190 for getting credit, down from 109 in 2016.
Over the past 3 years, Tajikistan’s banking system has recorded losses and a sharp rise in nonperforming loans has reduced bank capital. The rise in toxic assets has multiple causes: weak corporate governance, poor risk management, cronyism in lending to companies and individuals, a high concentration of loans in risky sectors such as construction and agriculture, large transaction costs, and a lack of diversity in banking products. Several large banks have suff ered from inadequate provisioning and a fall in the value of collateral. Bank weakness has made it hard for households to access deposits and withdraw money from payroll accounts. In addition, fi rms have had trouble meeting contract obligations, paying taxes, and borrowing at reasonable rates. High interest rates and short loan maturities have kept many fi rms from undertaking productive investment.
3.6.9 Inflation 0 2 4 6 8 10 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Forecast %
Sources: Tajikistan State Statistical Agency; ADB estimates.
3.6.1 Tajikistan’s long–term development goals
Tajikistan attained lower-middle-income status in 2014 with gross national income per capita estimated under the
Atlas method at $1,080. However, growth has come with high economic vulnerability to international commodity prices and developments in the Russian Federation. Tajikistan’s goal in the medium-to-long term is to catch up with its neighbors and reach upper-middle-income status. Convergence will be diffi cult, however, because of fi scal constraints and the economy’s narrow base, with production limited in quantity and restricted to products with little value added, highly concentrated exports, low private investment, and dependence on remittances and other external factors.
The government’s National Development Strategy to 2030 has ambitious targets to achieve average real GDP growth of 8%–9% annually, which would raise real GDP by 250% to around $24.2 billion measured in 2016 prices. Economic diversifi cation and a sharp increase in exports of goods and services are identifi ed as the main avenues for attaining this goal. Gross domestic savings are to rise from 8.5% to 30.0% of GDP, and the private investment share of GDP is to soar eightfold from 3.0% to 25.0%. Industrialization is to raise the GDP share of industry from 12.3% to 22.0%, thereby expanding output and exports. The GDP share of services is to remain unchanged, but services are to become more sophisticated. Moreover, the index of export concentration in the three largest items is to fall from 83% to 58%. Attaining these goals would help expand the middle class, defi ned as households with per capita spending for monthly consumption at TJS230–TJS294, from less than a quarter of the population to half. The cost of fi nancing the programs needed to attain these objectives is estimated at $118.1 billion.
Independent analysis suggests that, given average population growth of 2.3%, attaining by 2030 the targeted GDP per capita of $7,000 (at purchasing power parity in current US dollars) from the 2015 estimate of $2,970 would require an annual growth rate of at least 8.8%, well above the 6.9% recorded in 2016. If growth averaged 7.5%, the target would be reached in 2035.
3.6.1 Selected economic indicators (%)
2017 2018
GDP growth 4.8 5.5
Infl ation 8.0 7.0
Current account balance
(share of GDP) –5.5 –6.0
Moreover, with more than 70% of loans denominated in foreign currency, fi rms bear the risk of currency mismatch. These problems contributed to the 13% drop in the stock of credit to the private sector in 2016.
The government took several steps to address the problem in 2016: recapitalizing four troubled banks (Box 3.6.2), strengthening bank supervision, and tightening foreign exchange controls. In addition, it eased reserve requirements applicable to both local and foreign currency deposits for fi nancial institutions that met capital adequacy standards. It worked to facilitate cashless transactions and increase deposit insurance coverage. An entrepreneurial support fund was established to provide local currency loans at concessional rates to borrowers in remote areas. Finally, the authorities introduced a law on Islamic banking and facilitated the creation of two credit information bureaus.
Beyond the measures already undertaken, several other reforms could help Tajikistan improve fi rms’ access to fi nance in the short run. They include obtaining a sovereign country rating to promote foreign infl ows, strengthening bank supervision, preventing cronyism in lending, enhancing the aff ordability and accessibility of fi nancial services, and helping eligible fi nancial institutions provide fi nancing to farmers and rural food processors in local currency to reduce their exposure to foreign exchange risk.
Over the medium term, further regulatory measures are needed: raising the capital adequacy ratio to enhance confi dence in the banking system, establishing credit insurance and guarantee schemes to facilitate export fi nancing, introducing more convenient and up-to-date banking facilities, and requiring banks to disclose their ownership and fi nancial results. In addition, the authorities should develop an eff ective stress- testing framework, introduce long-term foreign exchange risk hedging, and take steps to establish infl ation targeting that could support the currency over the medium-to-long term.
3.6.2 Recapitalization of four Tajik banks in 2016 On top of a business slowdown, the depreciation of the Tajik somoni by nearly 50% since the beginning of 2015 has brought a sharp rise in nonperforming loans, from 29.9% of Tajikistan’s sector total at the end of 2015 to 54.7% at the end of September 2016. Moreover, the average ratio of bank capital to risk-weighted assets fell to 5.4%, less than half the required 12.0%. Four banks faced possible insolvency, limiting access to deposits and preventing the timely settlement of payments and tax liabilities. To maintain confi dence in the banking system, the government recapitalized the four banks in December 2016 at a cost of nearly $500 million, equal to 7.1% of GDP. Five-year Treasury bills with a concessional 2% interest rate were issued to the four banks in exchange for selected bank assets. The banks
could use these securities to obtain liquidity from the central bank for new lending (box fi gure). To prevent currency pressures and limit infl ation, the resources of certain state budget organizations that the Ministry of Finance previously placed in the troubled banks, notably those of the agency that handles social insurance and pensions, must be returned to the Central Treasury at the ministry.
3.6.10 Current account balance
% of GDP –10 –8 –6 –4 –2 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Forecast
Sources: International Monetary Fund; National Bank of Tajikistan; ADB estimates.
3.6.11 Remittances and GDP growth
% % of GDP Personal remittances received Tajikistan GDP growth Russian Federation GDP growth –60 –30 0 30 60 –10 –5 0 5 10 2007 2010 2013 2016 17 18 Forecast
Sources: World Bank, World Development Indicators online database; National Bank of Tajikistan; ADB estimates for Tajikistan GDP growth and remittance infl ows.
Ministry of Finance $488.8 million
$1.00 = TJS7.88 as of 31 December 2016 1. Assets of the banks
are taken as collateral in exchange for T-bills
2. T-bills issued and given to banks, which can be used to get liquidity from the National Bank of Tajikistan
3. Liquidity provided by National Bank of Tajikistan in exchange of T-bills
National Bank of Tajikistan Tojiksodirotbank
$285.7 million
Agroinvestbank