Chapter 7 explored a number of options that could form elements of a risk mitigation strategy that reduces the likelihood of supplyͲchain bottlenecks for the five metals for which high risks have been identified.ThiswasbasedonaninͲdepthmappingofthesupplychainsforthesemetalsandconsidering possiblepolicyinterventionsateachstage,including: x increasingEuropeanprimaryproductionandbyͲproductseparation x encouragingreuse,recyclingandwastereduction x examiningsubstitutionpotential.
The results show that there is some scope for effective mitigation measures, although many of them would require additional research efforts and investments, and would only begin to contribute substantiallytoreducingtheriskforfuturesupplyͲchainbottleneckstowardsthemiddleofthisdecadeat theearliest. Forrareearths,aquitesophisticatedtechnologicalandindustrialbaseexistsinEurope,whichpotentially couldformthebuildingblocksforafuturerareearthssupplychaininEurope,althoughitisnotedthat theseareownedbydifferentcompaniesandwouldrequirecollaboration.Akeyproblemforrareearth companies in Europe is securing a reliable supply of virgin material. There is some potential for actual mine production in Europe, but the deposits that have been identified so far, will need considerable furtherexplorationtoascertaintheircommercialviability.Furthermore,hurdlestosecureenvironmental permits would form a substantial obstacle to actual production. A new mine, concentration and separationfacilitywithsignificantcapacityrelativetoworlddemandislikelytocostinexcessof€500m.
Therefore the utilisation and expansion of preͲexisting assets is a preferred strategy to a green field facility.
There is also some potential to recycle rare earths, both for preͲconsumer and postͲconsumer scrap. However,furtherresearchisneededtodevelopandcommercialiserecyclingtechnologies.Akeyproblem for postͲconsumer applications is that large quantities of permanent magnets will not enter the waste stream for many years. A more immediate opportunity exists within recycling the magnets contained within hard disc drives. To enable effective recycling from such postͲconsumer sources, collection and sortingsystemswouldneedtobedeveloped.Costsaredifficulttoestimatebutmaybeoftheorderof tensofmillionsofEurosforpreͲprocessingandrecycling.Effortstoreplaceneodymiumanddysprosium inpermanentmagnetapplicationshavesofarnotmetwithmuchsuccessandsystemlevelsubstitution, i.e. replacing the technologies that use rare earths with alternative technologies that do not rely on permanent magnets, appears to be a more promising route. Continuing investments in alternative technologiesisthereforeimportant.
Forindium,thepossibilitiestoincreasetheproductionofvirginmaterialfromEuropeanzincrefiningare limited,unlessrefinerscouldbeconvincedtoswitchtoalternative(mostlySouthAmerican)oresuppliers. The ores that European zinc refiners currently use are generally low in indium content and where possible,indiumrecoveryisoftenalreadyoptimised.Thesameappliestorecyclingofprocessingwaste. There is however some potential to recycle indium from postͲconsumer waste in flat panel displays, althoughfurtherresearchoftherecyclingtechnologies,aswellasthedevelopmentofinfrastructureto collect and separate flat panel displays from other WEEE would be necessary. Capital cost of indium separationplantsattheprimarystagearereportedlyoftheorderof€50mandthereforecomparatively, indiumrecyclingshouldbeattractiveifsufficientmaterialcanbeextractedfromtherecyclate.
For tellurium, there is still considerable room to expand the scope and increase extraction rates of recovery from European copper refiners. This is particularly attractive for tellurium because only relatively small investments would be needed compared to those required to extract speciality metals such as gallium and indium. Further efforts are necessary to increase existing European recycling from electronicscrapandPVapplications.SubstitutionoftelluriuminseverallowͲvalueapplicationsispossible andshouldbepromoted.
Similarly,thereisstillmuchpotentialtoincreasegalliumrecoveryfromEuropeanaluminiumrefiners,as currentlymuchofthegalliumcontentinbauxitethatisprocessedinEuropeendsupinwastestreams. Recycling of processing waste is quite optimised already today. For most gallium applications, there is littlescopeforrecyclingduetoitsdissipativeuse.TherecoveryofgalliumfrompreͲconsumerelectronics waste appears to have been optimised. Substitution of the gallium contained inLEDs by organicͲbased LEDsisapossibility,whichshouldbesupported. Insummary,therearearangeofpotentialoptionstomitigaterisksforfuturesupplybottlenecksforthe fivemetalsidentifiedinChapter5.ItisrecommendedthattheEuropeanCommissionandEUMember Statesshouldactivelyengageinconsideringabroadarrayofmitigationmeasures,evenifmanyofthe solutionswillonlycontributesubstantiallytomitigatingbottleneckriskinthemediumtolongterm(5to 15years).Ourrecommendationsareto:
1. Collectmore dataand providebetterinformation onthedemand,supply and price trends
for metals that are used in significant quantities in SETͲPlan technologies. Bottleneck risks are reduced by a faster flow of information between decisionͲmakers and market participants both in metal markets, as well as in the consuming industries. This can be achievedby:
i. ensuring that materials used in significant quantities are included in the Raw
Materials Yearbook proposed by the Raw Materials Initiative ad hoc Working Group
iii. ensuring that any informational actions for the “critical” materials gallium, indiumandtherareearthsarealsoduplicatedfortellurium,whichfallsoutside thisgroup.
2. Support and sustain the existing rare earths supply chain in Europe, including efforts to
ensurereliablesupplyoforeconcentratesatcompetitivepricesthrough:
i. feasibilitystudiesonbringingbackintouseandupdatingexistingassets
ii. R&D and demonstration projects on new lower cost separation processes,
particularlythosefrombyͲproductortailingscontainingrareearths
iii. collaboration with other countries/regions with a shared agenda of risk
reduction such as the USA and Japan in exchange of information on underpinningscienceorinpreͲcompetitiveresearch.
3. Support junior miners, possibly via EBRD coͲfunding of feasibility studies, in exploration of
promisingEuropeanrareearthdeposits,aswellastherespectivepermitprocesses.
4. Raiseawarenessandengageinanactivedialoguewithzinc,copperandaluminiumrefiners
overbyͲproductrecovery.Fortelluriumandgalliuminparticularthereisscopetoincrease European recovery rates. This can be achieved, for example, by funding workshops and networks via the appropriate metal industry study group or development association to identifyrisks,barriersandbenefitstofurtherinvestment. 5. CreateincentivestoencouragebyͲproductrecoveryinzinc,copperandaluminiumrefining inEurope,possiblyviafundingoffeasibilitystudiesorloansbyEBRD. 6. PromotethefurtherdevelopmentofrecyclingtechnologiesandespeciallyincreasedendͲofͲ lifecollectionandprocessingforanumberofparticularcomponentsandproducts,notably permanentmagnetsinharddiscdrivesandflatpaneldisplays.Fundingshouldbeprovided fordemonstrationprojectsinharddiscdriveandflatpaneldisplaydisassemblyandrecycling wherethisisproposedtorecoverhighpercentagesofrareearthsandindium,forrecycling processes to recover the rare earths and indium and for innovative design that enables easierandquickerdisassemblywhilstretainingproductintegrityandfunctionality.
7. Measures for the implementation of the revised WEEE Directive should include
encouragementfortherecoveryofsuchlesscommonmetalsalongsidethemainmetalsthat areusuallytargetedformassͲbasedrecoverysystems.
8. Invest broadly in alternative technologies that can provide systemͲlevel substitutes to
technologies that rely heavily on bottleneck metals whilst retaining performance advantages.Thisincludesalternativesystemsforwindturbines. 9. FundingoffurtherR&Dintosubstitutingindiuminindiumtinoxides. 10. EncouragethesubstitutionoftelluriumuseinlowͲvalueapplicationsviainnovationfunding. Lastly,itisproposedthatfutureresearchshouldbecarriedout,withinthescopeofthisstudy,toidentify themetalrequirementsandassociatedbottlenecksfromlowͲcarbontechnologiesotherthanthesixSETͲ Plan technologies. Important demandͲside technologies such as electric vehicles, lowͲcarbon lighting, electricitystorageorfuelcellandhydrogentechnologies,whicharekeytoEurope’slowͲcarbonenergy transition and the attainment of the SETͲPlan targets, should be examined for their metal use and associatedrisksforsupplyͲchainbottlenecks.Suchstudiesshouldbeperiodicallyupdatedonatimescale appropriatetothedevelopmentofthetechnology,whichislikelytobeevery5Ͳ10years.