EL JUEGO EN EL APRENDIZAJE DEL NIÑO Y SU IMPORTANCIA

One of the tasks set forth in the research is development of analytical and forecasting methods for ensuring conformance of the labor force supply and demand at this period, as well as in upcoming period, by performing a model aggregate elaboration, which is based on the original dynamic optimization model, foreign approbated models, as well as statistical and econometric models.

As a result of the research, a model aggregate has been created, which is made of the adapted Swedish labor market agency forecasting model and the DOM elaborated in Powersim Studio environment. The elaborated aggregate of the models is applicable not just for analysis of the labor force supply and demand, but also for modeling the scenarios of development alternatives, by searching the most effective policy tool and selection of operating strategies. The adapted Swedish labor market agency forecasting model is oriented on analysis of labor market for short-term and medium-term time periods, by using econometric methods. The results

thereof, by obtaining the flow of the employed in certain profession groups and industries according to the age, can be used for analysis of the supply and demand nonconformance causes. By adapting the Swedish labor market agency forecasting model to the Latvian conditions, regardless of the differences in basic elements of forecasting in specific spheres, similar principles are maintained in its structure. However four modeling and forecasting blocks were introduced instead of the models in MS Excel environment:

1st block – Retirement block,

2nd block – Short-term forecasting block, 3rd block – Medium-term forecasting block,

4th block – Long-term forecasting and strategic evaluation block.

The entry data of labor market forecasting blocks are analyzed in accordance with the potential growth or decrease of the number of individuals. The results can be used in processes of various decision-making and will provide with an option to evaluate the general situation in the labor market. The basic data, which are necessary for the decision making process, will be available for the needs of initial situation planning, in order to increase or decrease the labor force supply within framework of specific specialties, if necessary. Thus it is possible to preclude overproduction of labor force (structural unemployment), as well as prevent a situation of distinct deficiency of labor force.

The input data of the labor market forecasting blocks are as follows: • Residents in age groups,

• Labor force in age groups, • The employed in age groups, • The employed in economic sectors,

• The employed according to the profession groups,

• The employed in profession groups according to the sectors.

The input data were prepared as time rows beginning with year 1997, as well as from DŅA and DDA.

The output data of the labor market forecasting blocks are as follows:

• Short-term forecast of labor market demand in profession groups, • Short-term forecast of labor market demand in industries,

• Short-term forecast of labor market demand in profession groups, in industries, • Short-term forecast of labor market supply in profession groups,

• Short-term forecast of labor market supply in industries,

• Short-term forecast of labor market supply in profession groups, in industries. Two electronic tables – calculation tables (APR) and analytical tables (ANL) – were elaborated and approbated in MS Excel environment for each modeling and forecasting block. The model blocks are implemented, using standard options of MS Excel software. The IT solution consists of several mutually related MS Excel files, which ensure implementation and approbation of the theoretical model, however it does not ensure convenient and secure multi-user operating environment.

The improved Swedish Labor Market Agency Forecasting Model

In order to perform labor market development forecasts, two types of electronic tables have to be applied: APR and ANL, incl., the electronic table of input data block (IVD).

Thus, the model elaborated in MS Excel environment consists of four mutually connected model blocks:

• The retirement block, which establishes the labor force flow in profession groups and industries according to age, and the results of which are necessary for the remaining model blocks;

• The short-term forecasting block, which establishes the possible development forecasts of labor force supply and demand in profession groups and in industries for the following 2-3 years. The results of these modeling blocks can be used for short-term planning of individual educational programs, as well as for long-term education system and individual study program planning;

• The medium-term forecasting block establishes the possible development forecasts of labor force supply and demand in profession groups and in industries for the upcoming 4-5 years. The results of these modeling blocks can be used for planning of individual short-term educational programs, as well as for planning long-term education systems and individual study programs;

• The long-term forecasting block evaluates the possible development trends of labor force supply and demand (the possible credibility intervals) in profession groups and industries for a time period of up to 13 years.

Figure 6. Data study, modeling, and forecasting in MS Excel environment

Data study, modeling, and forecasting technology in MS Excel environment in general is displayed in Figure 6. In order to commence the work with the improved software of the

Swedish labor market forecasting model in MS Excel environment, the sequence of opening files must be observed:

• IVDtab_dati.xls • APRtab_PENSbloks.xls • APRtab_1_PENSbloks.xls • APRtab_ISTbloks.xls • APRtab_VIDbloks.xls • APRtab_ILGbloks.xls • ANLtab_PENSbloks.xls • ANLtab_ISTbloks.xls • ANLtab_VIDbloks.xls • ANLtab_ILGbloks.xls.

Model input data block

The model input data block is provided to ensure that the user has an option to observe the previous situation in labor market (dynamics of the number of the employed and changes in profession groups and industries, the dynamics of those who have left employment), as well as to alleviate operations with the elaborated statistical model blocks, because the indices present in the input data block are automatically sent to all of the following calculation and analytical tables, according to the selected industry or profession group.

Thus, the electronic tables of the model input data block in file IVDtab_dati.xls ensure

maintenance of input data and is located in MS Excel sheets: “Konfiguracija”, “IVD Doto faktoru ievade”, “Palīgtabula 1”, “Palīgtabula 2”, “Vecuma grupas”, “Nozares”, “Profesiju grupas”, “Nodarbinatie pa PG un VG”, “Nodarbinatie pa NOZ un VG”, “Nodarbinatie pa PG”, “Nodarbinatie pa NOZ”, “Profesiju pametusie pa PG”, “Profesiju pametusie pa NOZ”, “Pensionejusies atbrīvoti pa PG”, “Pensionejusies atbrīvoti pa NOZ”, “Sakusi macibas PG”, “Sakusi macibas NOZ”, “Absolventi pa PG”, “Absolventi pa NOZ”, “Profesija stradajosie abs pa PG”, “Profesija stradajosie abs pa NOZ”, “Migracija uz citam prof pa PG”, “Migracija uz citam prof pa NOZ”.

Special function for adding new input data and forecasting periods is not elaborated in the MS Excel models. It is expected that the administering institution will perform annual updates to the model, which will include adding input data containing data of the previous period and shifting the forecasting periods by one year. Since the present periods (for input data – 1996-2005, for short-term forecasts – 2006-2008, etc.) are strictly encoded in the MS Excel model, then adding a new period is connected to significant changes in whole model. In order to perform adding of a new period, fine knowledge is required about the model construction and dependencies between various variables, as well as proficiency in MS Excel options.

The retirement block is created mainly to supply three labor market forecasting blocks with input data. The short-term and medium-term labor market forecasting blocks are created to obtain data for labor market analysis, as well as for short-term and medium-term (or long-term) forecasting.

Short-term labor force supply and demand forecasting block

The short-term labor market forecasting model consists of calculation tables of short-term forecasting block and of results of analytical table forecasting. This forecasting block establishes the possible development forecasts in labor force supply and demand in profession groups and industries for the upcoming 2-3 years. The results of the corresponding modeling block can be used for planning of individual short-term education programs, as well as for planning of long-term education systems or individual study programs.

Figure 7. Structure of the MS Excel file APRtab_ISTbloks.xls

Model 1.2. APR

Labor force demand

Labor force supply

Results and annual data

Accumulated volume

A - Number of the employed in a profession B - Change in number of the employed (%)

C - Change in number of the employed in a profession (employees who have left the profession) (%)

P - Retired or laid off due to reduction of staff E - Commenced studies in specific profession (number)

F - Percentage of graduates in respect to the total number of those who started studies (trained and examined) (%) F - Percentage of graduates in respect to the total number of those who started studies (trained and examined) U - Working in the profession (%) U - Working in the profession Remaining to work in the profession I - Migration to other professions or industries (%) I - Migration to other professions or industries

D - Total demand (number)

S - Total supply (number)

P - Retired or laid off due to reduction in staff

N - Total supply (number)

O - Total demand (number)

H14:R16 Actual data in years T14:Y16 Forecasts in years

H17:R19 Actual data in years T17:Y19 Forecasts in years

H20:R20 Actual data in years T20:Y20 Forecasts in years H23:R25 Actual data in years T23:Y25 Forecasts in years H27:R29 Actual data in years T27:Y29 Forecasts in years

H30:R30 Actual data in years T30:Y30 Forecasts in years H31:R33 Actual data in years T31:Y33 Forecasts in years H34:R36 Actual data in years

T34:Y36 Forecasts in years H37:R39 Actual data in years T37:Y39 Forecasts in years H40:R40 Actual data in years T40:Y40 Forecasts in years

H41:R43 Actual data in years T41:Y43 Forecasts in years H44:R46 Actual data in years T44:Y46 Forecasts in years H48:R50 Actual data in years T48:Y50 Forecasts in years H51:R53 Actual data in years T51:Y:53 Forecasts in years

H55:R57 Actual data in years T55:Y57 Forecasts in years H60:R62 Actual data in years

T60:Y62 Forecasts in years H63:R65 Actual data in years T63:Y65 Forecasts in years

LM(0) (Number of those employed in the profession)

LM(1) (Commenced studies in specific profession (number))

LM(2) (Percentage of graduates in respect to the total number of those who started studies (trained and examined) (number))

LM(3) (Working in the profession (%) from the graduates)

LM(4) (Staying to work in the profession (%) (i.e., withstand one year) (1+ migration)

LM (5) (Change in number of the employed in a profession) Annual supply and demand diagram 1 Accumulated supply and demand diagram 1

A2:V12 Comparable values A14:N18 Best model A20:H62 Summary of forecasts

A64:I66 Number of employed in a profession (in years) A64:I66 Number of employed in a profession (in years) N65:N66 Data count

Models

A70:K96 Linear model A110:L135 Lin-log model A143:O167 Log-lin model A170:L196 Hyperbolic model A210:M233 Log-log model A244:J266 Parabolic

Graph (Change in annual supply, demand) Graph (Accumulated supply and demand)

The binding structure of the calculation tables can be seen in Figure 7. In order to easier find the results of the obtained forecasts and in order for the results to be clearer, analytical table is created, wherein the possible forecasts are displayed and the dynamic thereof is graphically

displayed. The corresponding analytical table ensures research and analysis of short-term forecasting results.

Medium-term labor force supply and demand forecasting block

The medium-term labor market forecasting model consists of the calculation tables of medium-term forecasting block and of the forecasting results of the analytical tables.

Work with medium-term forecasting model for the user is identical as with the short-term forecasting model; the differences are only inside, with which only those researchers must interface, who will perform model updates.

For creating the medium-term forecasts, the short-term forecasts from file

APRtab_ISTbloks.xls will be used.

Thus, in short-term forecasting block, the possible development forecasts of labor force supply and demand in profession groups and in industries for the upcoming 4-5 years are established. The results of these modeling blocks can be used for short-term education program planning, as well as for planning long-term education systems and individual study programs, similar to short-term forecasts.

Operations with long-term and strategic evaluation forecasting model

With the assistance of the elaborated analytical tool – the modeling results simulating the labor market in Powersim Studio environment – analysis of nonconformance of labor force supply and demand in long-term can be performed in the following sections:

• Employment analysis, which is characterized by changes in number of the employed and by the changes in number of those looking for a job in individual profession groups;

• Analysis of economic development trends; it is described by the labor force demand to be shaped according to the desired industrial development, changes in vacant employment positions, forecasted development of industries influenced by provision of actual labor force;

• Establishment of state-supportable education spheres in order to ensure formation of the labor force supply according to the demand.

The elaborated analytical tool for econometric modeling of labor market in MS Excel environment for short-term and medium-term time periods is suitable for analysis of causes of nonconformance between labor force supply and demand in the following sections:

• For flow of the employed in profession groups and industries according to age;

• For analysis of labor force supply and demand in short-term, medium-term, and long-term.

Even though each of the above-mentioned environments, according to their options and principles used in modeling, form a uniform complex model system, a separate description of each model must be performed for detailed modeling result description.

The labor market long-term and strategic evaluation forecasting model consists of calculation tables of long-term and strategic evaluation block and of ANL forecasting results. Short-term and medium-term forecasts are used therein for making the forecasts.

The MS Excel file ANLtab_ILGbloks.xls ensures analysis of long-term and strategic evaluation

forecasting results. However the goal of the long-term labor market analysis is to display the line of events, which is referable to the supply and demand balance of labor resources, within framework of certain specialties (profession groups), within a 10-15 year period. This analysis requires the most recent data and development trends, as well as short-term and medium-term supply and demand forecasts and expert forecasts. Considering the historical development of Latvia, the historical data in any of the previously mentioned spheres are very minimal, as well as considering many other initially unpredictable factors in order to be able to forecast specific long-term labor force demand, for instance, in a certain profession group (it is impossible to establish exactly, for instance, that in year 2015, there will be a demand for 20058 doctors). The results in long-term will be displayed as tendencies (interval provided, which would conform to the corresponding demand or supply, as well as surplus or deficit of labor force), moreover, balance in labor market situation is forecasted within framework of industries, profession groups in the country and profession groups of the regions.

The created long-term labor force demand, supply forecasts are provided for evaluation and analysis of long-term labor market situation and to find improvement opportunities for the system.

In order to forecast the possible situation development in labor market in long-term, considering all short available data rows and basic approaches of the statistical methods, additional data sources (expert evaluations) are necessary for the forecasts to be more realistic.

Therefore, considering the previously mentioned:

• In long-term, the calculation blocks elaborated in MS Excel environment are offered not with forecasts, but with development trends;

• In long-term, in addition to the dynamic data for the calculation blocks elaborated in MS Excel environment, also expert evaluations are used;

• The simultaneously elaborated DOM model complex mainly is scheduled for elaboration of long-term forecasts, therefore, considering the model structure, the results of the long-term forecasts must be more precise than the results of MS Excel. Therefore, the labor force supply and demand forecasts elaborated in these modules are used in MS Excel environment as an expert evaluation-assistance in long-term forecasting.

Table 3. Model dimensions used in MS Excel environment

Dimensions Description Module

Age groups Division of the economically active residents in age

of labor capacity: 15; 16; 17; ...; 74. Retirement block Profession groups Aggregation of the professions included in the

profession classifier into 37 profession groups,

combining the professions similar in respect to the skills and worker abilities, by formation of the labor force supply in certain education system level and industry.

Retirement block

Short-term forecasting block Medium-term forecasting block Long-term forecasting block Industries Display of economic structure, using Level 1 of

NACE classifier Retirement block Short-term forecasting block Medium-term forecasting block Long-term forecasting block

3 different dimensions are used in the model structure of MS Excel environment, which ensures model functionality, making its structure easier to comprehend, besides ensures stability of operations (See Table 3).

DOM elaboration is based on use of principles of system dynamics, by performing analysis of labor market as of a complex system, as well as structuring thereof and simulation of operations, demonstrating the behavior of the system elements under influence of decision making. “System dynamics is a perspective view and a set of conceptual tools, with the help of which complicated system structure, dynamics, and functionality can be comprehended” (Sterman 2000: 5).

Figure 8. Schematic illustration of DOM structure

The main goal of DOM is to perform forecasting alternative development scenarios of labor market as a modeling system in long-term. In order to ensure that, five partially independent system modules were created (see Figure 8):

• Social module, which establishes the quantitative (amount) and qualitative (professional qualification) of labor force supply;

• Economic module, which establishes the quantitative and qualitative labor force demand;

• The labor force market module, which results in ensuring balancing out of the labor force market, by summarizing the forecasts and reciprocal interaction results of both previously mentioned modules;

• Technology module, which mainly influences the dynamic behavior of the economic module and indirectly influences the labor force market;

• Environmental and resource module, which influences the social and economic modules and through them indirectly influences the labor force market.

Each of the balancing modules consists of several partially independent blocks.

The goal of the social module is to establish the supply of labor force in profession and age groups. Since the labor force supply is formed as a result of interaction of two influencing