8.3.1 Brief description of the model
The construction of new airport and transfer of traffic is influenced by a set of sub-dynamics and factors. First, the construction of a new airport is generally a long and complex process involving multiple stakeholders. It starts with the identification of the need for a new airport, is then followed by a planning process that involves the selection of a site and ultimately results in a master plan. The development is then carried out followed by the construction and delivery. In some cases, once the airport is operational, the second phase of the general dynamic involves the transfer of traffic to the new airport.
Several strategic solutions exist to make the transfer successful and sustainable.
The following section presents the detailed dynamics and factors that govern the evolution of multi-airport systems through this path of construction of new airports.
Figure 92: Feedback model of the dynamics and factors influence the construction of new airports
Passengers (i.e. latent & realized demand)
Airline Sector
Set of airports in the metropolitan region
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a. Sub-dynamics
Identification of a need to build a new airport
As shown on Figure 92, the construction of a new airport arises from the need for additional airport capacity in the region. This need can be the result of observed capacity shortfall at the existing primary airport (i.e. coupled with the inability to expand the airport) or limited capabilities of the existing airports (e.g. runway length requirements), (cf. Model, Figure 92, Congestion of the primary airport driving the need for additional capacity loop).
Planning, Financing and Construction of new airport
This need for a new airport in the metropolitan region and the decision to proceed with this process leads to the planning that is then followed by the construction process.
The process of airport planning can be blocked or delayed by local community input and opposition (cf. Model, Figure 92, Local community opposition loop).
Transfer of traffic/Entry of carriers
Regulatory processes have a significant role in the way traffic distributed in the case of the construction of a new airport and partial or total transfer of traffic from an original primary airport to the new airport. While the original primary airport can be successfully closed, it is generally difficult to do so (de Neufville, et al., 2003).
New airports are generally located further away from the city center than the original primary airport and keeping the original primary airport open makes the new airport less attractive for airlines and creates competition and market access problems. Regulatory solutions can be employed in these cases in order to force the distribution of traffic. (cf.
Model, Figure 92, Transfer of traffic loop). These mechanisms can involve, mandatory transfer of traffic, passed through local or regional legislations, or financial incentives or penalties resulting in differential costs of operation between airports, making one airport more attractive than another from a cost standpoint.
These regulatory tools can sometimes be effective to preserve the original airports (i.e. by avoiding to close it) while ensuring the successful emergence of a new primary airport.
b. Factors influencing the construction of new airports
Forecast of future passenger traffic within the metropolitan region
The projection of demand for air transportation within the region is one of the key initiating factors influencing the anticipatory dynamic of construction of a new airport (cf. Model, Figure 92, Demand forecast driven development loop).
Congestion of primary airports
For the same reasons as those mentioned in the case of the emergence of a secondary airport the congestion of the primary airport can be an initiating factor influencing the dynamic of construction of a new airport. However, unlike the initiating factor of forecast of the future traffic (i.e. to identify the future need of an airport), the congestion of the primary airport is the cause of a reactive process more than an anticipatory process (cf.
Model, Figure 92, Congestion of primary airport driving need for additional capacity loop).
Limitations of existing airports
The lack of adequate physical airport infrastructure such as runway length can also be a reason for initiating the process of planning and construction of new airports in a metropolitan region. Changes in aircraft fleet (e.g. historically the shift from propeller aircraft to jet propelled aircraft) can impose new requirements on airport infrastructure.
Lack of availability of airport infrastructure
While the obvious condition for the process of emergence of secondary airport to emerge (i.e. from an existing under-utilized airport) was the availability of existing under-utilized airports in the region, the lack of such airports can drive the need for the construction of new airports. Areas of the world where the set of under-utilized airports is weak are more likely to exhibit an evolution of multi-airport systems through the construction of new airports.
Availability and acquisition of land area in the metropolitan region
As shown on Figure 92, the overall process of construction of a new airport in a region requires access to land area sufficiently vast to develop an airport. The degree of success of acquisition of the necessary land depends on three key factors; (1) usage of the land (e.g. agricultural, residential, commercial, etc.), (2) the fragmentation and ownership of the land required and (3) the presence of natural habitats on the land. The overall process can also be influenced by local community input and potentially delayed or blocked (cf. Model, Figure 92, Local community opposition loop).
8.3.2 Results from the multiple-case study analysis
a. Factors influencing the construction of new airports
Congestion and physical limitations of the primary airports
The congestion and physical limitations of the primary airport that acted as initiating factors influencing the construction of a new airport was found in the following cases.
Table 22: Evidence of congestion and physical limitations of primary airports that motivated the construction of a new airport in a metropolitan region
World
Region Airport name Congestion and physical limitations of the primary airports Bangkok/Don Mueang Don Mueang airport was assessed by Airport of Thailand as; overloaded and not
expandable .
Hong Kong/Kai Tak Hong Kong/Kai Tak's footprint was constrained by urban development and terrain limitations.
Osaka/Itami
In the 1970s, the potential expansion of Osaka/Itami was limited due to urban encroachment and opposition from local communities. Due to the expansion of Osaka/Kansai and the construction of Osaka/Kobe additional capacity is available at Itami.
Seoul/Gimpo The airport could not be expanded to accommodate projected traffic growth in the region.
In the early 2000s, the airport was congested.
Shanghai/Pudong
In the 1990s, the projections of growing demand in the region coupled with limited expansion at Shanghai/Hongqiao due to urban development surrounding the airport motivated the need for a second airport in the region.
Taipei/Songshan
Taipei/Songshan was constrained by capacity in the 1970s. In addition, the runways (i.e.
the longest runway today is 8,547 ft long) were too short to accommodate wide-body jets.
Tokyo/Haneda
Tokyo/Haneda was becoming congested in the 1960s and it was impractical to expand the airport (i.e. large amounts of land would have needed to be reclaimed on the harbor).
Gothenburg/Torslanda Gothenburg/Torslanda was constrained by its footprint and expansion was needed to accommodate larger aircraft in the 1970s.
Oslo/Fornebu Oslo/Fornebu had only one operational runway and no room for expansion, with sea constraints
Paris/Orly Paris/Orly was constrained by urban development limiting the ability to expand the airport footprint.
Rome/Ciampino
Rome/Ciampino has one single runway and its expansion is constrained. Even after its reemergence phase, the airport is still constrained and local community pressure attempted to curb traffic in 2007.
Stockholm/Bromma Stockholm/Bromma was heavily congested in the 1950s and had limited expansion capabilities (i.e. surrounded by dense urban development).
Belo Horizonte/Pampulha
Belo Horizonte/Pampulha was congested in the 1970s-1980s which motivated the development of the primary airport in the region; Belo Horizonte/Neves. The expansion of the footprint of the airport is also heavily constrained by surrounding urban development.
Buenos Aires/Newbery Buenos Aires/Newbery is constrained by urban development. As a result it was not possible to expand it.
Rio de Janeiro/Santos Dumont The airport was built on reclaimed land, leaving no space for expansion. The airport is heavily congested.
Sao Paulo/Congonhas
Sao Paulo/Congonhas’s expansion is limited due to its footprint and has short runways (i.e.
longest runway 6,365 ft long). These runways constraints motivated the construction of Viracopos in the 1960s. Sao Paulo/Congonhas remained congested in the 1980s which motivated the construction of Sao Paulo/Guarulhos International in 1985 and partial transfer of traffic.
M. East
Tehran/Mehrabad
Tehran/Mehrabad faced congestion and expansion limitations.
Chicago/Midway
In the mid 1940s, Midway reached saturation. In the 1950s, it was also constrained by its infrastructure (i.e. runways too short) that prohibited the first generation of jet airplanes to access the airport.
Dallas/Love Field Dallas/Love Field faced capacity constraints and expansion constraints.
Houston/Hobby In the 1960s, Houston/Hobby faced land limitations and constraints that motivated the construction of Houston/Intercontinental.
Washington/Reagan
Washington/Reagan's footprint is heavily constrained due to urban development on the west side and the Potomac River on other sides. There is no available space in the current footprint to add runway capacity.
North AmericaAsia/PacificEuropeLatin America
Forecast of future passenger traffic within the metropolitan region
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is driving air transportation activity and conversely (cf. Chapter 2; background on the air transportation system). The projected rate of growth of traffic in a metropolitan region influences directly the traffic forecasts used for airport planning purposes. As a consequence, regions where the projections of traffic show large increase in traffic (and where the existing airport infrastructure in the region is limited) are more likely to exhibit the dynamic of construction of new airports. Conversely, more mature regions that are growing according to slower rates that require marginal airport capacity addition are more likely to exhibit the dynamic of emergence of a secondary airport through the utilization of an under-utilized existing airport.
Countries where secondary airports have emerged were in general those where slower growth rate of air traffic was observed. Conversely, countries where high annual growth rate of traffic are observed or anticipated exhibit predominantly the mechanism of construction of new airports.
Based on the historical analysis of the airports within multi-airport systems, it was found that in Europe and in North America, existing primary and secondary airports were constructed prior to World War II (Figure 93). Whereas in Asia-Pacific, the major phase of construction of airports is more recent (i.e. 1970s and 1990s/2000s). For airport constructed in the 1990s and 2000s, the projection of demand for these metropolitan regions was key factors in the initiation of the planning and construction process (e.g.
Osaka/Kansai, Hong Kong/Intl, Shanghai/Pudong, Guangzhou/Baiyun, and Bangkok/Suvarnabhumi).
Figure 93: Histogram of the year of construction of primary and secondary airports within multi-airport systems (by world regions)
Role of regulatory and political factors in the closure of airports and mandatory transfer of traffic
Regulatory factors played a significant role in the way traffic distributed in the case of the construction of a new airport and partial or total transfer of traffic from an original primary airport to the newly constructed airport. While in few cases the original primary airport was successfully closed (e.g. Denver/Stapleton in 1995, Oslo/Fornebu in 1998, Hong Kong/Kai Tak in 1998, Athens/Ellenikon in 2001), it is generally difficult to do so.
Given that in all the cases in the study, the new airport was located further away from the city center than the original primary airport, keeping an original primary airport open makes the new airport less attractive for airlines and creates competition and market access problems. Regulatory solutions were often employed in these cases in order to force the distribution of traffic. In the United States, the Wright Amendment limited Southwest Airlines’ operations at Dallas/Love Field (DAL) in order to ensure transfer of traffic to Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW) illustrates the role and the impact of such regulatory and political factors on the evolution of multi-airport systems. These regulatory tools can be effective to preserve the original airports (i.e. by avoiding to close it) while ensuring the successful emergence of a new primary airport.
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1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Number of airports