CAPITULO V: ANÁLISIS E INTERPRETACION DE RESULTADOS
5.5 Línea De Conducción
The expansion of the hydropower production in the two future scenarios is based on the scenario 1 of the CEDREN report6 (Jaehnert 2012). This amounts to a production capacity increase of 11 GW. In the EMPS dataset, this is implemented through an expansion of the existing hydro modules in Norway. In the 2030 dataset, some PHS plants from scenario 1 were already included. We removed these to include only present PHS plants. It should be noted that no additional inflow was calculated, i.e. no climatic effect was incorporated. The future development of the thermal power production originates from the ENTSO-E numbers on the generation capacity and generation mix of 2010 (Entsoe.net – the transparency platform, cited in Jaehnert 2012). In addition an EU report on energy trends up to 2030 (EU Energy Trends to 2030 2010, cited in Jaehnert 2012), and scenarios for the offshore grid (Woyte et al. 2011, cited in Jaehnert 2012). There are about 350 individual thermal power plants in the model. They are implemented based on the ADAPT-sheet of thermal
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power plants (ADAPT 2007, cited in Jaehnert 2012). The decommissioning of old plants and the commissioning of new plants are included to correspond to the net generation capacities found in the EU energy trends report. The dispatchable power plants are modelled by the available generation
capacities per week, and their marginal production costs (based on ADAPT 2007, ibid). For the future 2020 and 2030 scenarios, the fuel costs are assumed unchanging, and the CO2 price is increased from 13 €/t (2010) to 44 €/t
(2020/2030).
In the future scenarios, the nuclear power production is completely
decommissioned in Germany and Belgium, while it is halved in the Northern Europe. It is slightly increased in Finland and Great Britain.
Wind power production is based on wind speed energy series per m2, and further converted to energy inflow series (through the wind power production capacity per m2). The wind simulations are supported by “Reanalysis wind speed data”, which gives an account for 1948 – 2005(SUSPLAN, cited in Jaehnert 2012), while the installed wind power generation capacities stem from the EWEA scenarios (E.W.E. Association 2009, cited in Jaehnert 2012). Solar production is modelled in the same manner as wind power production – i.e. solar radiation data and the installed solar production capacities are used to calculate energy series. The solar data (for 1948 – 2005) is also based on SUSPLAN. The solar power production capacities are found for Germany and The Netherlands in the model, and omitted in the rest of the continent.
The following table sums up the energy series in MW of wind and solar power in the dataset:
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Table 5 - Energy series of wind and solar power in Germany, 2030
Source: Jaehnert 2012
The reserve capacity is ensured through a 95 % availability of the
dispatchable thermal power plants. In the Nordic area, it is expected that the hydropower plants can offer sufficient reserve capacity throughout the year. However, this is a simplification.
The electricity consumption for each country is based on the data found in the previous EMPS dataset. The future scenarios are in turn based on the EU energy trends. For instance, the case for the Norwegian and the Swedish consumption is expected to increase with 6 % from 2010 to 2020, and 9 % the last ten years up to 2030. The figure for Germany is respectively 5 % and 10 %, while Belgium may exhibit as much as 14 % and 30 %.
More specifically, the consumption in Germany is projected to 648 TWh in 2020 and 678 TWh in 2030. Similarly, for Norway’s case the 2020 scenario assumes a 121 TWh consumption, while it is 124 TWh in 2030.
The EMPS model is divided in several areas, connected through transmission corridors, which are defined by net transfer capacities (NTC) and linear losses in transmission. The NTCs specified in the 2010 scenarios are based on the
Price Area Wind power Solar power
TYSK-OST 21.589 1.245 TYSK-NORD 12.633 1.245 TYSK-MIDT 5.273 1.245 TYSK-SYD 0.678 11.208 TYSK-SVEST 0.968 11.208 TYSK-VEST 12.806 3.734
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previous EMPS model, and adjusted according to the grid description provided through NVE (“Norges vassdrags- og energidirektorat –
Kraftsystemdata”, cited in Jaehnert 2012). In the future scenarios, the grid development in Norway corresponds to the network development plan of Statnett (Statnett 2010, cited in Jaehnert 2012). The developments are based on the upgrade of the transmission networks, through increasing the voltage level and thereby the capacity. The transmission corridor of Sima-Samnanger is also added, to strengthen the western coast areas.
NTCs for cross-border capacities are for the most part based on ENTSO-E. The scenario for 2020 are updated both nationally and internationally. This is based on ENTSO-E’s Ten-years-network-development plan (2011, cited in Jaehnert 2012). For instance, there is an addition of a 1 400 MW cable connecting the southern Norway (SORLAND) with the northern Germany (TYSK-NORD) through Nord.Link. Additionally, NorNed II will be connecting SORLAND with The Netherlands, doubling the already existent 700 MW cable. Furthermore, there is an increased transmission capacity between Norway (SORLAND) and Denmark (DANM-VEST), totaling 1 600 MW (up from 900 MW). The 2030 scenario is further expanded with the offshore grid project in the North Sea (Woyte 2011, ibid). Central in this grid is the Doggerbank wind farm, which acts as a connection hub to other offshore wind farms in Norway,
Germany and The Netherlands. The offshore grid is as follows (OWP means the offshore wind power production – SORLAN-OWP is thus an area that includes offshore WPP and is connected to SORLAND, main land):
SORLAN-OWP (Norway) and DOGGERBANK (1 000 MW) TYSK-V-OWP (Germany) and DOGGERBANK (1 000 MW)
NEDERL-OWP (The Netherlands) and DOGGERBANK (1 000 MW) BELGIA and NEDERL-OWP (1 000 MW)
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Figure 11 - Transmsission lines 2030
Source: Jaehnert 2012
However, to accommodate for another 1 400 MW cable between Norway and Germany (NorGer), we have altered Jaehnert’s dataset to include this one as well. Further discussions on transmission lines are found in chapter 6.4.1.
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