LA EDUCACIÓN SUPERIOR EN SONORA: UN PROCESO DIFERENTE

(Villain’s flaw) (Difficulty rating) (Hero’s exploit) Related Missions: 5, 23

As you are playing at the table, watch the other players. You will find certain players, the LAGs and TAGs, fire a second barrel when good barreling cards come. Whenever you can predict what a player will do before they do it, they are exploitable. Bluffing the bluffer is the next level of poker thinking. Raising this bluff is an excellent option, especially if you have a draw to back you up. The other reason this semi-bluff works is that it is rare at this level for a turn check-raise to be anything but a strong made hand. This induces a lot more folds because we look so strong. This is how to play against players that are playing like us.

$2-$5 The Bike

Image: Action: Hand: Starting Stack:

…

Hijack Hero $25 $600

Cutoff LAG Call Covers

Button Nit Call $400

Small Blind Weak player Call $550

…

We certainly do not like being out of position to the Loose Aggressive player; he tends to make our hands hard to play because he will bet or raise when he senses weakness. We expect the LAG to not have complete garbage, but he does not need to be too strong either. Most pairs, any two Broadway cards, suited Aces, suited Kings, and one or two gappers are all reasonable. He is capable of flat calling with premium hands if the mood suits him. We are on the border of folding or opening in this hostile situation. The weak players in the blinds and the predictable Nit on the Button give us reason to open here.

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Pot: $105 Range: Starting Stack: Unknown (Small Blind) Check/Fold … Hero (Hijack) Check/Call $575 LAG (Cutoff) $35 Covers Nit (Button) Fold …

We have very little hand strength on this flop, and terrible equity when called. Because of this, we do not like continuation betting into three opponents. However, after the LAG bets, we can close the action heads-up with an inside straight draw, backdoor Hearts, two over cards and a board that is unlikely to have hit him either. We are getting great odds from his small bet. Having this relative position on the LAG has advantages as his bet clears out the rest of the table.

Pot: $175 Range: Starting Stack: Hero (Hijack) Check/$225 $540 LAG (Cutoff) $75/Fold Covers

This is a very sneaky card for us. We have a well-hidden double belly buster straight draw. It is a good barreling card for the LAG. It is an over card, we have shown weakness and we are the only opponent.

It is hard for us to simply call his bet, because we need to make a hand on the river to realize our showdown value. However, our hand also has stealing value. The stealing value combined with the showdown value makes this a profitable spot. His small bets and prior history of two- barreling gives us reason to try this move. The range analysis later in the alternative lines section applies here too. He does not likely have a strong hand, so we can push him out with a check-raise.

If he shoves over our check-raise, it comes down to pot odds and our perception of his range. We would be getting 2.4:1 on the shove. If he has even an overpair like AA, we need 4.5:1. If he only has an Eight, then we can barely squeak in a call since we would need at least 2.14 to call.

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If he flat calls and we miss on the river, it is doubtful he called with anything that he would fold on the river for the small amount we have left.

We got really lucky with the draw we picked up on the turn. Let us look at an alternative line and see what happens if we are less fortunate.

Alternate Line: unhelpful over card on turn

Pot: $127 Range: Starting Stack: Hero (Hijack) Check/$225 $540 LAG (Cutoff) $75/Fold Covers

Villain bets again on the turn. Let us look at his range; he called a late raise pre-flop and we had put him on a range like this:

Pre-flop cutoff calling range (25%)

AA AKs AQs AJs ATs A9s A8s A7s A6s A5s A4s A3s A2s AK KK KQs KJs KTs K9s K8s K7s K6s K5s K4s K3s K2s AQ KQ QQ QJs QTs Q9s Q8s Q7s Q6s Q5s Q4s Q3s Q2s AJ KJ QJ JJ JTs J9s J8s J7s J6s J5s J4s J3s J2s AT KT QT JT TT T9s T8s T7s T6s T5s T4s T3s T2s A9 K9 Q9 J9 T9 99 98s 97s 96s 95s 94s 93s 92s A8 K8 Q8 J8 T8 98 88 87s 86s 85s 84s 83s 82s A7 K7 Q7 J7 T7 97 87 77 76s 75s 74s 73s 72s A6 K6 Q6 J6 T6 96 86 76 66 65s 64s 63s 62s A5 K5 Q5 J5 T5 95 85 75 65 55 54s 53s 52s 4A K4 Q4 J4 T4 94 84 74 64 54 44 43s 42s A3 K3 Q3 J3 T3 93 83 73 63 53 43 33 32s A2 K2 Q2 J2 T2 92 82 72 62 52 42 32 22

This is about 25% of all starting hands. This range only hits this flop about 20% of the time. Half of those times with an overpair, a third of the time with just top pair. Sets and a straight draw make up the rest. Here are the hands that hit:

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value range in white (20% of pre-flop) AA AKs AQs AJs ATs A9s A8s A7s A6s A5s A4s A3s A2s

AK KK KQs KJs KTs K9s K8s K7s K6s K5s K4s K3s K2s AQ KQ QQ QJs QTs Q9s Q8s Q7s Q6s Q5s Q4s Q3s Q2s AJ KJ QJ JJ JTs J9s J8s J7s J6s J5s J4s J3s J2s AT KT QT JT TT T9s T8s T7s T6s T5s T4s T3s T2s A9 K9 Q9 J9 T9 99 98s 97s 96s 95s 94s 93s 92s A8 K8 Q8 J8 T8 98 88 87s 86s 85s 84s 83s 82s A7 K7 Q7 J7 T7 97 87 77 76s 75s 74s 73s 72s A6 K6 Q6 J6 T6 96 86 76 66 65s 64s 63s 62s A5 K5 Q5 J5 T5 95 85 75 65 55 54s 53s 52s 4A K4 Q4 J4 T4 94 84 74 64 54 44 43s 42s A3 K3 Q3 J3 T3 93 83 73 63 53 43 33 32s A2 K2 Q2 J2 T2 92 82 72 62 52 42 32 22

How many of those hands like betting when a King of Clubs comes on the turn? Only about half of them:

value range in white (10% of pre-flop) AA AKs AQs AJs ATs A9s _{A7s A6s A5s A4s A3s A2s} AK KK KQs KJs KTs K9s K8s K7s K6s K5s K4s K3s K2s AQ KQ QQ QJs QTs Q9s Q8s Q7s Q6s Q5s Q4s Q3s Q2s AJ KJ QJ JJ JTs J9s _{J7s J6s J5s J4s J3s J2s} AT KT QT JT TT T9s _{T7s T6s T5s T4s T3s T2s} A9 K9 Q9 J9 T9 99 _{97s 96s 95s 94s 93s 92s} A8 K8 Q8 J8 T8 98 88 _{86s 85s 84s 83s 82s} A7 K7 Q7 J7 T7 97 87 77 76s 75s 74s 73s 72s A6 K6 Q6 J6 T6 96 86 76 66 65s 64s 63s 62s A5 K5 Q5 J5 T5 95 85 75 65 55 54s 53s 52s 4A K4 Q4 J4 T4 94 84 74 64 54 44 43s 42s A3 K3 Q3 J3 T3 93 83 73 63 53 43 33 32s A2 K2 Q2 J2 T2 92 82 72 62 52 42 32 22

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The point of looking at this is that rarely does he have a hand here. Only 20% of his starting range hits; only 50% of that 20% hits the turn too. So, only 10% of the time does he have a hand strong enough to bet here. It seems far more likely that he is just betting because we showed weakness. This is not some nit that is out of character betting because he got lucky and hit a great hand. This is a guy that has shown a proclivity towards betting into weakness. That is why the check-raise will work, even if we did not have a draw to back us up.

What are we representing on this board? Nothing, absolutely nothing. He will probably give us credit for a set that we played sneaky. This is a bluff that is pressuring his weak range while not particularly representing anything.

This kind of analysis shows that almost no card really helps him. We would likely check-raise any card with similar prospects.

Let us look at a different alternative line. We checked the original turn and got in a check-raise. What happens if the Villain checks behind on the turn?

Alternate line: turn checks through, induce action

Pot: $127 Range: Starting Stack: Hero (Hijack) $20 $540 LAG (Cutoff) ??? Covers

If we hit one of our straight cards, we could just sell our hand for whatever we think we can get. A standard bet might be about $100 when we make it.

We could also try something strange – bet $20. What LAG is going to fold to this small bet? It would prove that he had nothing. Calling is just not his style. He might convince himself that this strange little bet is a blocking bet. If we are making a blocking bet then we would fold to a raise. In this book, we raise when we think someone will bet-fold. Often our small bet size telegraphs the intention to fold to a raise. Villain likes raising when people show weakness. Give it a try. This is how we beat people that play like us.

Also, the Seven might make him a tempting two pair if he had suited connectors 67 or 78. If he held this, his raise would very likely come, giving us a chance to shove.

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Alternate line: turn checks through, big bluff

Pot: $127 Range: Starting Stack: Hero (Hijack) $175 $540 LAG (Cutoff) Fold Covers

If the turn checks through and we do not hit our miracle straight, we know that he bet the flop, but then checked back the turn. From earlier analysis, we suspect that he has a very weak hand. He wants to get to a cheap showdown. A healthy donk over-bet here really pressures his holdings. It appears as if we have one last chance for value and do not want to miss it. We are not representing anything in particular, but we do not need to. He will not need much of a story to fold his hand. He seems to only have a single pair, one beaten by a single Queen. He will fold pretty much everything here.

NEW HAND

This semi-bluff requires courage and observation of patterns. While we will have some showdown equity with our draw, this play is mostly about noticing that a player is willing to double barrel with air. Just as we might bluff-raise a continuation bet, we are now bluff-shoving a frequent two barreler.

$1-$2 Image: Action: Hand: Starting Stack:

UTG+1 Unknown Limp/Fold …

MP1 Loose passive Limp/Call $262

MP2 TAG $12 $312

…

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Pot: $41 Range: Stack:

Loose passive (MP1) Check/Fold $250 TAG (MP2) $30 $300 Hero (Button) Call …

It all starts when he fires the first barrel on a flop that does not really hold much for anyone. Certainly he could do this legitimately with JJ+ and some good Tens. More likely, he has two missed overcards, some tenuous suited connectors or possibly some low pairs that are now essentially a bluff.

Pot: $101 Range: Stack:

TAG (MP2) $60 $270 Hero (Button) Shove …

The only value hands that like this King are AA, KK, TT, TK and flush draws. Maybe he was leading out with AK/KQ/KJ on the flop too. This is a very small amount of his range. Imagine you were this TAG and were following the barrel plan with AQ, AJ, QJ, JJ, 89s, 88. Would you make a hero call on the chance we were making a play? Exactly. We have just as empty of a range as him, but it is harder to call a bet than to make one.

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