In the face of a persistently low fertility rate, high long-term unemployment and an increasing share of non-standard employment over the past decades, this chapter investigated the effects of em- ployment insecurity on first childbirth among couples in Germany. The analyses extended the ex- isting literature firstly by investigating a more refined list of indicators of objective employment insecurity. Secondly, the chapter paid more attention than prior studies to the interplay between the employment situation and the gender regime for fertility decisions by comparing the effects of employment insecurity in East and West Germany and by looking at changes in gender-specific ef- fects over time in West Germany. Finally, the chapter contributed to the literature by taking on an explicit couple perspective and acknowledging the important role of partnership dynamics and both partners’ employment characteristics for childbearing decisions.
140 Fixed effects models would be preferable as they do not assume that unobserved heterogeneity is uncorrelated with the variables in the model. However, this was not feasible for the analyses in this thesis for lack of a convincing fixed effects event history approach for non-repeatable events such as first childbirth (Andress et al. 2013:278).
150 As a consequence of the historical experiences as GDR and FRG, the institutional settings in East and West Germany have differed in some important dimensions during the period of observa- tion (1985-2013 for West Germany, 1990-2013 for East Germany). Labour market chances in the East were lower than in the West, particularly for women, manifesting themselves in a higher un- employment rate, a higher prevalence of fixed-term contracts and more involuntary part-time work in the East. Moreover, the two regions still differ considerably regarding their gender regime: While East Germany is marked by the dual breadwinner model, West Germany sees a dominance of the modified male breadwinner model. That said, it has to be added that West Germany’s gender re- gime is currently in transition, having departed from the male breadwinner model, which was dom- inant in the Golden Age of Marriage of the 1960s. Against this background, the current chapter investigated to what extent the effect of employment insecurity differs by region and whether we see change in the effects over time in West Germany. The research questions were addressed by means of discrete-time event history analysis of the Socio-Economic Panel Study (1985-2013).
The comparative analysis of the hazard and survival rates in East and West Germany has demonstrated different patterns of family formation behaviour in relation to partnership duration. In West Germany, the timing of the first child is strongly tied to the time of household formation, while this link is relatively loose in East Germany. In both regions, the hazard rises steeply right after partnership formation but goes into decline much earlier in the West than in the East. As a result, childlessness is less widespread among East German couples after a long partnership duration.
The multivariate event history analysis focused on objective and subjective indicators of em- ployment insecurity reflecting two different dimensions of insecurity, namely economic insecurity, in the form of financially insecure employment situations, and temporal insecurity, relating to inse- curity regarding the continuity of the current job or employment in general. Overall, the analysis revealed the importance of temporal security in the form of a permanent employment position for women: Women in fixed-term positions – be it full-time or part-time – were shown to postpone first childbirth. Women on fixed-term contracts often do not have a job to return to after parental leave, which renders finding permanent employment before childbirth important to them. When comparing the two regions, it becomes clear that fixed-term full-time work has detrimental effects on first motherhood only in East Germany, pointing to the more difficult labour market chances of women on these contracts in the East. The results for the subjective measure of temporal insecurity support the crucial meaning of a secure job for childbearing decisions for women: Both in East and West Germany, women delay childbearing if they are concerned about their job security.
In contrast, a position outside employment seems to be supportive for first motherhood: Women who are inactive or unemployed exhibit a significantly increased risk of first childbirth.
151 Comparing the two regions, the positive effect of unemployment and inactivity for women can only be found in West Germany, while in East Germany, there is the tendency of a negative effect. This difference can be explained by the different gender regimes in East and West: In West Germany, the modified male breadwinner model requires women to stay home and care for the child for some time after childbirth, which creates high opportunity costs if the woman has to give up an employment position that is well paid or that promises a successful career. Furthermore, the role as homemaker and mother is socially more accepted in West Germany, which makes the compen- sation strategy more likely, meaning that women who are unsatisfied about their employment sit- uation withdraw from the labour market to focus on family and children. Women in East Germany mainly prefer continuous full-time employment. In order to avoid a further decrease in their em- ployment chances, they prefer to postpone first childbirth during unemployment until they are back in employment. While positions outside employment are therefore regarded as good opportunities for childbirth in West Germany, the results for the subjective indicator of economic insecurity seems to contradict this trend: In both East and West Germany, women postpone first childbirth if they are concerned about their economic situation. This finding suggests that unemployment and inactivity are only used for family formation if the economic situation is secured otherwise, e.g. by the income of the male partner. This assumption could be asserted by the subsequent constellation analyses (see below).
Turning to the results for men, the first thing that meets the eye is that, across the board, no significant effects of men’s employment situations were found in East Germany. This result suggests that the dual breadwinner model combined with the tight East German labour market, particularly for women, leads couples to link the timing of their first child to a good employment situation of the female partner. The situation is to some extent different in West Germany. Similarly to the East, temporal insecurity in the form of fixed-term contracts does not hamper first fatherhood. As most men remain in employment continuously even after the birth of their child, the job guarantee dur- ing parental leave that comes with permanent employment is not as important for them. A rather puzzling result is the fact that we see a positive effect of concern about job security on first father- hood in West Germany. This suggests that men who anticipate fatherhood and taking over the role as primary earner become more conscious about the security of their job. In contrast, economic insecurity in the form of (permanent) part-time work proves detrimental for first fatherhood in the West. This points to the fact that such positions are not regarded as suitable for a primary earner. However, men’s concern about the economic situation has no effect on first fatherhood.
On the grounds of the changing gender regime in West Germany – from the male breadwinner model to the modified version – the chapter has furthermore investigated whether the gender-
152 specific effects of employment insecurity on first childbirth have changed over time. In this respect, the comparative analysis of two West German cohorts of partnership formation (1973 to 1996 vs. 1997 to 2011) revealed only few insights. Among women, fixed-term part-time work is only detri- mental for childbearing for the late cohorts, which might point to the fact that a secure full-time position has become more important over time. In contrast, the results suggest that men’s full-time employment was more important for childbearing in the early cohorts than in the late cohorts. This can be regarded as an indicator for women’s strengthened role in employment, which has relieved men from their breadwinning responsibilities to some degree. Women’s subjective economic inse- curity, in turn, is only detrimental for childbirth in the late cohorts, possibly reflecting increasing costs of children and a general trend for couples to increasingly condition parenthood on a good economic situation.
In a final step, the chapter went beyond the existing studies by investigating to what extent the specific employment constellation of the partners plays a role in childbearing decisions. This analysis was rather exploratory as New Home Economics, bargaining theories and the concept of Cumulative (Dis)advantage led to different predictions. The results point to the validity of several of these approaches for childbearing decisions: New Home Economics, stating that a specialised division of labour fosters childbearing, gathered support from the fact that a female partner outside employment is only beneficial for childbearing if backed up by a full-time working male partner. This constellation has a particularly high risk of childbirth. The egalitarian rule, suggesting that em- ployment insecurity has a negative effect no matter which partner is affected, was also partially supported: Childbearing becomes unlikely if either partner is in education, even if the other partner is in full-time employment and would therefore be able to support the family. Further, there was some support for the sphere of interest rule, predicting that only the female partner’s employment situation matters: As long as the female partner is in permanent employment, the employment position of the male partner does not significantly affect the risk of childbirth. If the female partner is in a fixed-term position, there is always a negative effect on first childbirth, regardless of the specific employment situation of the male partner. However, the male partner’s employment situ- ation is not irrelevant in this respect: A fixed-term contract of the female partner is particularly harmful if the male partner is not in dependent employment. This result, in turn, is an indicator for cumulative disadvantage. Cumulative disadvantage was also reflected in the fact that a constella- tion in which no partner is in dependent employment exhibits a significant negative effect on first childbirth. Furthermore, educational participation is most detrimental if both partners are in edu- cation. The fact that evidence was found for several decision-making rules underlines the complex- ity and situation-dependence of fertility decision processes in couples.
153 Besides other aspects, this chapter has contributed to the literature in particular by developing an explicit couple’s focus and recognising the partnership dynamics behind childbearing trends, i.e. partnership formation and dissolution. The SOEP data were chosen due to the long period of ob- servation and the rich information on couples’ employment situations. However, working with the SOEP, the focus on couples came at the expense of a comparatively small sample size, preventing very detailed analyses of specific (rare) employment constellations and comparing the effects of employment constellations between East and West Germany or across partnership formation co- horts. It is up to future research to plunge deeper into the effects of specific secure and insecure employment constellations and to compare their effects in Germany across region and time. For this purpose, an even larger sample would be needed. Furthermore, the effect of different gender role attitudes could not be tested directly on the level of the individual due to the unavailability of this information in the SOEP. Therefore, the effects of gender regimes were investigated by com- paring East and West Germany. Testing the moderating effect of gender role attitudes on the em- ployment-fertility nexus directly on the level of the individual could be another task for future re- search.
In addition, the analysis of changing effects of employment insecurity over time had to be re- stricted to West Germany due to the longer period of observation and larger sample size. As time passes and more waves of data become available for East Germany, it will also be interesting to investigate whether and in what way the gender-specific link between employment and fertility is also changing in the East and whether the two regions are converging over time.
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