Labor market theories related to over-education

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Blanchard – Macroeconomia – 3ª edição Blanchard – Macroeconomia – 3ª edição

". a%a%b. b. AnAnwwerer  wiwill ll dede'e'end nd on on whwhen en ththe e 'a'age ge i i acacceceeded..

c. ThThe dece declilinne in une in unemem'l'lo+o+mement dont doe noe not e:ut e:ual tal the inhe incrcreaeae in eme in em'l'lo+o+mementnt$ bec$ becauaue the thee labor ,orce i not con

labor ,orce i not contant. tant. )t ha increaed over th)t ha increaed over the 'eriod.e 'eriod.

CHAPTER '

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Blanchard – Macroeconomia – 3ª edição Blanchard – Macroeconomia – 3ª edição

Dig Deeper

b. The )0 curve i vertical? tThe )0 curve i vertical? the interet rate doe nohe interet rate doe not a,,ect e:uilibrium out a,,ect e:uilibrium out'ut.t'ut.

cc.. @@o o cchhaannggee..

A9 curve i vertical$ out'ual$ out'ut doe not changet doe not change$ but the 'rice level increa$ but the 'rice level increae. e. @ote tha@ote thatt out'ut i above it

out'ut i above it natural level.natural level.

,. ThThe Ae A0 c0 cururve ve hhi,i,t t u' u' ,o,orerevever$ ar$ and nd ththe 'e 'ririce ce lelevevel il incncrereaae e ,o,orerevever. r. NuNut't'ut ut dodoe e nonott change? it remain above it natural level ,orever.

change? it remain above it natural level ,orever.

 a,,ect the interet rate$ it doe

a,,ect the interet rate$ it doe not a,,ect out'ut.not a,,ect out'ut.

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Blanchard – Macroeconomia – 3ª edição Blanchard – Macroeconomia – 3ª edição



.. aa.. @@oo. . ))n tn thhe 1e 1!!""&&$ w$ we ee e66''eerriieenncceed hd hiiggh ih inn,,llaattiioon an annd hd hiiggh uh unneemm''lloo++mmeenntt. . TThhee e6

e6'e'ectctatatioionn%a%augugmementnted ed 5h5hilillili' ' cucurvrve e i i a a rerelalatitiononhhi' i' bebetwtweeeen n inin,l,latatioion n anandd unem'lo+m

unem'lo+ment conditional on the natural rate and in,latent conditional on the natural rate and in,lation e6'ectation. ion e6'ectation. Diven in,lationDiven in,lation e6'ectation$ increae in the natural rate <which reult ,rom advere hoc( to labor e6'ectation$ increae in the natural rate <which reult ,rom advere hoc( to labor mar(et intitutionGincreae in RGor ,rom increae in the mar(u'Gwhich encom'a

mar(et intitutionGincreae in RGor ,rom increae in the mar(u'Gwhich encom'a

oil hoc(= lead

oil hoc(= lead to an increae in to an increae in both the unem'lboth the unem'lo+ment rate and the in,o+ment rate and the in,lation rate. lation rate. )n)n add

increae in in,lation e6'ectation ma+ tend to increae hort run out'ut ,rom the demand increae in in,lation e6'ectation ma+ tend to increae hort run out'ut ,rom the demand

ide$ becaue o, the real interet rate e,,ec

ide$ becaue o, the real interet rate e,,ect. t. The real interet rate i introThe real interet rate i introduced in Eha'terduced in Eha'ter 18.

18.= = )n the 1!)n the 1!"&"&$ both th$ both the natue natural ratral rate and e6'ee and e6'ectected in,ld in,latiation incon increareaeded$ o both$ o both unem'lo+m

unem'lo+ment and ent and in,lation were relativel+ high.in,lation were relativel+ high.

b. @o. @o. The The e6'ectation%augme6'ectation%augmented ented 5hilli' 5hilli' curve curve im'lie im'lie that that maintaining maintaining a a rate rate o,o, unem'lo+ment below the natural rate re:uire increaing <not im'l+ high= in,lation.

unem'lo+ment below the natural rate re:uire increaing <not im'l+ high= in,lation.

Thi i becaue in,lation e6'ectation continue to

Thi i becaue in,lation e6'ectation continue to adCut to actual in,lation.adCut to actual in,lation.

3.. aa.. uunn>&.1/ >2>&.1/ >2 b.

b. VVtt>&.1%J.&3 > 82 ever+ +ear beginning with +ear t.>&.1%J.&3 > 82 ever+ +ear beginning with +ear t.

c. VV^eett> & and V> & and Vtt>82 ,orever. >82 ,orever. )n,lation e6)n,lation e6'ectation w'ectation will be ,ill be ,orever wrong. orever wrong. Thi iThi i

unli(el+.

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Blanchard – Macroeconomia – 3ª edição Blanchard – Macroeconomia – 3ª edição

d. the unem'lo+ment rate wa at a hitorical low$ in,lation roe ver+

the unem'lo+ment rate wa at a hitorical low$ in,lation roe ver+ little.little.

b. The natural rate o, unemThe natural rate o, unem'lo+ment 'robabl+ decr'lo+ment 'robabl+ decreaed.eaed.

Explre Fur!her

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Blanchard – Macroeconomia – 3ª edição Blanchard – Macroeconomia – 3ª edição

8. a.a. 0e0ee e tete6t 6t ,o,or r ,u,ull ll ananwwerer. . DrDradaduaualilim m rereduducece  neneed ed ,o,or r lalargrge e 'o'olilic+ c+ wwiningg$ $ wiwith th e,e,,e,ectct

that are di,,icult to 'redict$ but immediate reduction ma+ be more credible and encourage that are di,,icult to 'redict$ but immediate reduction ma+ be more credible and encourage ra'id$ ,avorable change i

ra'id$ ,avorable change in in,lation e6'ectan in,lation e6'ectation. tion. Nn the other hand$ the Nn the other hand$ the taggering o,taggering o, wage deciion ugget that$ i, the 'olic+ i credible$ a gradual diin,lation i the o'tion wage deciion ugget that$ i, the 'olic+ i credible$ a gradual diin,lation i the o'tion conitent with no change in the unem'lo+ment rate.

conitent with no change in the unem'lo+ment rate.

b. @ot clear. @ot clear. Baed in Ball* evidenBaed in Ball* evidence$ 'robabl+ ,at diince$ 'robabl+ ,at diin,lation$ de'ending on ,lation$ de'ending on the ,eaturethe ,eature

lited in 'art <c=.

c. 0om0ome ime im'or'ortantant ,t ,eateatureure; ; the the degdegree ree o, o, indinde6ae6atiotion$ n$ the the natnature ure o, o, the the wagwage%e%ettetting ing 'ro'rocece$$

and the initial rate o, in,lation.



.. aa.. ))nn,,llaattiioon n wwiilll l ttaarrt t iinnccrreeaaiinngg..

b. )t hould let unem)t hould let unem'lo+ment increae to it n'lo+ment increae to it new$ higher$ natural rate.ew$ higher$ natural rate.

Dig Deeper

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Blanchard – Macroeconomia – 3ª edição Blanchard – Macroeconomia – 3ª edição

ttHH!!;; 11..22 88..3322 ttHH11&&;; 11..22 88..!!22 c.

c. )n,la)n,lation tion doe doe not not decldecline ine moomoothl+thl+. . )n )n the the earl+ earl+ +ear+ear$ $ the the large large unemunem'lo+'lo+ment ment raterate

<relative to the natura

<relative to the natural rate= reduce in,lation to negal rate= reduce in,lation to negative value. tive value. 0ince mone+ growth > 30ince mone+ growth > 3 2 > normal out'ut growth in thi e6am'le$ negative in,lation drive real mone+ growth 2 > normal out'ut growth in thi e6am'le$ negative in,lation drive real mone+ growth

<and hence out'ut growth= above the normal out'ut growth rate$ and

<and hence out'ut growth= above the normal out'ut growth rate$ and unem'lo+munem'lo+ment ,all.ent ,all.

ventuall+$ unem'lo+ment ,all below the natural rate$ in,lation begin to increae again.

Thee c+cle continue$ with decreaing am'litude.

h.. UUnncceerrttaaiinn..



.. aa.. 66aamm''llee; ; --rraannccee; ; <<11..&&8811==^&^&J$8!>I8&.! (.J$8!>I8&.! (.

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Blanchard – Macroeconomia – 3ª edição Blanchard – Macroeconomia – 3ª edição

e. //@>@>8 8 imim'l'lieie  L/L/@>@>. . //@>@>  imim'l'lieie  L/L/@>@>..33. . NuNut't'ut ut lele  ththan an dodoubublele..

,,.. @@oo..

g. @o@o. . )n )n 'a'art <rt <,=,=$ we $ we arare loe loo(o(ining ag at wht what hat ha'a''e'en n to to ouout't'ut ut whwhen wen we ie incncrereaae cae ca'i'itatal onl onl+l+$$

not ca'ital and labo

not ca'ital and labor in e:ual 'ro'ortionr in e:ual 'ro'ortion. . There are decreaing return There are decreaing return to ca'ital.to ca'ital.

h.. LLee..

Dig Deeper Dig Deeper



.. aa. . d d lln n ++//ddt t > > ..  d d lln n ((//ddtt

growth rate o, out'ut > 1/ growth rate

growth rate o, out'ut > 1/ growth rate o, ca'italo, ca'ital b.

b. 8 28 2

cc //L L iinnccrreeaaee

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Blanchard – Macroeconomia – 3ª edição Blanchard – Macroeconomia – 3ª edição

the e6'ene o, curren

the e6'ene o, current conum'tion. t conum'tion. N, coure$ there are other N, coure$ there are other argument ,or ubidargument ,or ubidiRingiRing education$ 'articularl+ ,or low%income

education$ 'articularl+ ,or low%income houehold.houehold.

.

. @o@o. . <1= <1= The The 4a'4a'aneanee e ratrate oe o, g, growrowth th i i not not o o highigh ah an+n+momore. re. <= <= ), ), the the 4a'4a'aneanee e avaving ing ratrate he haa

alwa+ been high$ then thi cannot e6'lain the di,,erence between the rate

alwa+ been high$ then thi cannot e6'lain the di,,erence between the rate o, growth in 4a'an ando, growth in 4a'an and the United 0tate in the lat 8& or & +ear.

the United 0tate in the lat 8& or & +ear. <3= ), the 4a'anee aving rate ha been higher than it<3= ), the 4a'anee aving rate ha been higher than it ued to be$ then thi can e6'lain ome o, the high 4a'anee growth.

ued to be$ then thi can e6'lain ome o, the high 4a'anee growth. The contribution o, highThe contribution o, high

aving to growth in 4a'an hould$ however$ come to an

aving to growth in 4a'an hould$ however$ come to an end.end.

b. 0ame out'ut 'er wor(er. 0ame out'ut 'er wor(er. #igher out'ut 'er ca'#igher out'ut 'er ca'ita.ita.

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In document Aleksander Kucel (página 30-33)