Capítulo III: Hipótesis
5.1. Descripción de resultados
5.1.8. Legislación comparada
¾ According to the analyses and ranking of drivers of change described on section 6, the following variables have been selected in order to construct scenarios for the future the European building and repairing of ships and boats sector:
¾ Economic cycle and future evolution of world trade and sea transport
¾ Preservation of the European technological advantage
¾ For each of these two variables, two hypotheses (one favourable, one unfavourable) are made, thus defining 4 prospective scenarios:
1. Economic cycle and future evolution of world trade and sea transport:
Two hypotheses are considered regarding future evolution of world trade or, to put it differently, regarding the impact of the economic cycle downturn in world trade (and recreational boat demand):
a. Favourable: small influence of economic cycle
• The economic slowdown is short, with a rapid recovery of the world economy
• World trade keeps on growing at a similar rate as in the last 5-10 years (5% annual for seaborne trade)
• The regulatory framework compensates the short slowdown
• No major financial restrictions
• Demand of ships and boats grows at current levels
• Demand of specialised and high technology vessels keeps expanding
b. Unfavourable: the cycle has an important impact
• Long term crisis (recession)
• Growth of world trade is severely affected (2% annual rate) for seaborne.
• Regulatory framework is not able to compensate (other sectors’ demands)
• Financial restriction affects particularly a sector as shipbuilding
• Demand of ships and boats is stagnant
• Demand of high-tech vessels is also affected
2. Preservation of the European technological advantage:
Two hypotheses could be established regarding the mid-term evolution of building and repairing of ships and boat industry in Asian countries:
a. Favourable: EU keeps technological competitive advantage against third countries
• Capacity and production of third countries keeps on growing at high pace
• But technological level lags behind that of European shipyards
• Main Asian production is of standard vessels
• European shipyards keep their current share in world production
b. Unfavourable: Asian countries technological level progressively equals the European
Building and Repairing of Ships and Boats sector
• Their technological level develops rapidly (especially in China)
• As a result, European competitive advantage decreases rapidly
• European shipyards decrease their current share in world production
8.2. SCENARIOS
The combination of the former variables and hypotheses give place to the following scenarios.
Table 51. Definition of future scenarios for the EU European building and repairing of ships and boats sector
COMPETENCE FROM THIRD COUNTRIES AND EU TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANTAGE Favourable: EU keeps technological competitive advantage Unfavourable: Asian technological level equals EU Favourable: Small influence of economic cycle
Scn1
++
Scn2
+-
ECONOMIC CYCLE AND WORLDSEABORNE TRADE Unfavourable: the cycle has an important impact
Scn3
-+
Scn4
--
SCENARIO 1: GROWING DEMAND OF SHIPS AND BOATS AND PRESERVATION OF EU TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANTAGE
ρ Key assumptions
¾ The economic slowdown is short, with a rapid recovery of world and EU economy
¾ European economy grows at similar pace as recently (2% a year)
¾ World trade keeps on growing at a similar rate as in the last 5-10 years
¾ Moderation of fuel prices
¾ The regulatory framework (sea motorways, safety and environmental regulations, etc.) helps compensate the short slowdown and fosters demand of specialised ships
¾ No major financial restrictions for shipbuilding activity
¾ High investment in R&D activities in EU, cooperation and IPR safeguard
¾ Capacity and production of third countries keeps on growing at high level
¾ But their technological level lags behind that of European shipyards
ρ Consequences
¾ Demand of ships and boats grows at current levels
¾ Demand of specialised and high technology vessels keeps expanding
¾ Continuing introduction of innovations
¾ Main Asian production remains of standard vessels (low-medium tech)
¾ European shipyards keep their current share in world production
¾ Important activity related to replacement of old vessels
¾ Important level of repairing (including complete transformation) and maintenance activity
Building and Repairing of Ships and Boats sector
¾ Outsourcing Î Auxiliary sector integrates and keeps strong position: technology contents as competitive factor
¾ Overall figures of employment increase in EU as a whole:
• Increases in EU15
• Restructuring of shipyards in some NM States could have a significant medium- term impact on labour. Although compensated by increases in the activity
¾ Replacement needs: ageing, restructuring, requalification
¾ High demand for qualified personnel (engineers, electronics, new materials, ICT specialists; metalworkers, project management, financial)
¾ Possible international workers mobility
SCENARIO 2: GROWING SHIPBUILDING DEMAND BUT LOSS OF EU
TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANTAGE
ρ Key assumptions
¾ The economic slowdown is short, with a rapid recovery of world and EU economy
¾ World trade keeps on growing at a similar rate as in the last 5-10 years
¾ Moderation of fuel prices
¾ The regulatory framework (sea motorways, safety and environmental regulations, etc.) helps compensate the short slowdown and fosters demand of specialised ships
¾ No major financial restrictions for shipbuilding activity
¾ Relatively high investment in R&D sectoral investments, although third countries’ technological level develops rapidly (especially in China) and rapidly catches up with European technological standards.
¾ Capacity and production of third countries keeps on growing at high pace
ρ Consequences
¾ Demand of ships and boats grows at current levels
¾ Demand of specialised and high technology vessels keeps expanding
¾ Continuing introduction of innovations, increasingly in third countries
¾ Main Asian production increases its technological standards (increasing output of high-tech vessels)
¾ European technological competitive advantage decreases rapidly
¾ European shipyards decrease their current share in world production
¾ Stiffening of world competition
¾ Important activity related to replacement of old vessels
¾ Important level of repairing (including complete transformation) and maintenance activity
¾ Outsourcing Î Technology contents of auxiliary sector as competitive factor is increasingly lost.
¾ Relatively high demand for qualified personnel (engineers, electronics, new materials, ICT specialists; metalworkers, project management, financial)
¾ Relative decreases in employment levels, specially in manufacturing functions and specially in the old EU-15 Member States)
¾ Reduced international workers mobility
¾ Possible closure of shipyards.
Building and Repairing of Ships and Boats sector
SCENARIO 3: STAGNANT SHIPBUILDING DEMAND BUT PRESERVATION OF EU TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANTAGE
ρ Key assumptions
¾ Long term crisis (recession)
¾ Growth of world trade is severely affected.
¾ The regulatory framework (sea motorways, safety and environmental regulations, etc.) helps partially compensate the economic slowdown and fosters demand of specialised ships and boats
¾ Financial restriction affects particularly a sector as shipbuilding
¾ Reduction of R&D sectoral investments, although investments are still very significant and important. Technological cooperation and IPR safeguard
¾ Capacity and production of third countries keeps on growing at high level
¾ But their technological level lags behind that of European shipyards
ρ Consequences
¾ World demand of ships and boats is stagnant
¾ Demand of high-tech vessels is also affected
¾ Continuing introduction of innovations
¾ Main Asian production remains of standard vessels (low-medium tech)
¾ European shipyards keep their current share in world production
¾ Replacement of vessels is reduced
¾ Repair activity increases as old ships are kept functioning
¾ Outsourcing Î Auxiliary sector integrates and keeps strong position: technology contents as competitive factor
¾ Important demand for qualified personnel (engineers, electronics, new materials, ICT specialists; metalworkers, project management, financial)
¾ In absolute terms, relatively important employment decreases (both EU15 and NM States), specially in manufacturing activities
¾ Possible international workers mobility, especially for conception-related professionals.
SCENARIO 4: STAGNANT SHIPBUILDING DEMAND AND LOSS OF EU
TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANTAGE
ρ Key assumptions
¾ Long term crisis (recession)
¾ Growth of world trade is severely affected.
¾ Regulatory framework is not able to compensate (other sectors’ demands)
¾ Financial restriction affects particularly a sector as shipbuilding
¾ Reduction of R&D sectoral investments
¾ Capacity and production of third countries keeps on growing at high pace
¾ Their technological level develops rapidly (especially in China)
ρ Consequences
¾ World demand of ships and boats is stagnant
¾ Demand of high-tech vessels is also affected
¾ Introduction of innovations slows down
Building and Repairing of Ships and Boats sector
¾ European shipyards decrease their current share in world production
¾ Replacement of vessels is reduced
¾ Repair activity increases as old ships are kept functioning
¾ Both at shipyards producing standard cargo ships and high-tech
¾ Demand for qualified personnel decreases
¾ Important employment decreases (both EU15 and NM States)
¾ Inexistent international workers’ mobility
¾ Outsourcing Î Auxiliary sector also affected. Technology contents as competitive factor is lost.
¾ Possible closure of shipyards.
¾ Possibility of third countries setting up in EU (acquisition of shipyards in crisis)