Índice 2.1 Introducción 32
2.4. La fiscalidad de los activos financieros en España
2.4.1. Legislación fiscal para los activos financieros
To examine the relationship between economic growth and inflation in low-income countries, we reviewed the following academic articles. Our review of the literature included academic studies, using data from low- income countries, published from 1999 to 2009. Due to the lag between publication and submission, we included working papers produced in the last 2 years. The studies indicated with an asterisk (*) provided empirical estimates of the threshold level of inflation for low-income, developing or nonindustrial countries that serve as the basis for figure 11 in the report. The list includes widely cited studies published prior to 1999, although they either combine low-income and high-income countries when estimating the threshold inflation rate or determine the threshold on the basis of judgment.
Barro, Robert. “Inflation and Economic Growth,” Federal Reserve Bank of
St. Louis Review 78 (1996).
Bruno, Michael and William Easterly. “Inflation Crises and Long-Run Growth,” Journal of Monetary Economics 41 (1998).
Bruno, Michael and William Easterly. “Inflation and Growth: In Search of a Stable Relationship,” Review of Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 78, no. 3 (1996).
*Burdekin, Richard C.K., Arthur T. Denzau, Manfred W. Keil, Thitithep Sitthiyot, and Thomas D. Willett, “When Does Inflation Hurt Economic Growth? Different Nonlinearities for Different Economies,” Journal of
Macroeconomics 26 (2004).
Fischer, Stanley. “The Role of Macroeconomic Factors in Growth,”
Journal of Monetary Economics 32 (1993).
Ghosh, Atish and Stephen Phillips. “Warning: Inflation May be Harmful to Your Growth,” IMF Staff Papers 45 (1998).
*Gillman, Max, Mark Harris, and Laszlo Matyas. “Inflation and growth: explaining a negative effect,” Empirical Economics 29, no. 1 (2004). Gylfason, Thorvaldur and Tryggvi T. Herbertsson. “Does Inflation Matter for Growth?,” Japan and the World Economy 13 (2001).
*Khan, Mohsin S. and Abdelhak S. Senhadji. “Threshold effects in the Relation Between Inflation and Growth,” IMF Staff Papers 48 (2001).
*Kochar, Kalpana and Sharmini Coorey. “Economic Growth: What Has Been Achieved So Far and How?”, in Hugh Bredenkamp and Susan Schadler (eds), Economic Adjustment and Reform in Low-Income
Countries (Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund, 1999).
*Kremer, Stephanie, Alexander Bick and Dieter Nautz, “Inflation and Growth: New Evidence from a Dynamic Panel Threshold Analysis,” Sonderforschungsbereich Discussion Paper 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany (2009).
*Kremer, Stephanie, Alexander Bick and Dieter Nautz, “Inflation and Growth: New Evidence from a Panel Data Threshold Analysis,” Goethe
University Working Paper, Frankfurt (2008).
*Pollin, Robert and Andong Zhu, “Inflation and Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Non-linear Analysis,” Journal of Post Keynesian
Economics 28, no. 4 (2006).
Sarel, Michael. “Nonlinear Effects of Inflation on Economic Growth,” IMF
Staff Papers 43 (1996).
*Sepehri, Ardeshir and Saeed Moshiri. “Inflation-Growth Profiles Across Countries: Evidence from Developing and Developed Countries,”
International Review of Applied Economics 18, no. 2 (2004).
*Vaona, A. and S. Schiavo, “Nonparametric and Semiparametric Evidence on the Long-run Effects of Inflation on Growth,” Economics Letters 94, no. 3 (2007).
We reviewed the following empirical studies in the crisis “early warning system” literature written since 1998. For each study, we documented the variables that were predictive of an economic crisis. Where possible, we used a conservative standard for identifying key predictor variables. Under the signals method, we selected only variables that had a noise-to-signal ratio (NTSR) of 0.5 or less (less than 1 indicates more signal than noise). Noise indicates an incorrect prediction while a signal indicates a
correct prediction, so a NTSR of less than one implies more correct than incorrect predictions. Under traditional regression methods, we selected only variables whose coefficients had p-values less than 0.05. (Several studies we reviewed reported coefficients that were statistically significant at the 10 percent level.)
Berg, Andrew and Catherine Patillo. “Predicting Currency Crises: The Indicators Approach and an Alternative,” Journal of International Money
and Finance 18 (1999).
Borio, Claudio and Philip Lowe. “Assessing the Risk of Banking Crises,”
BIS Quarterly Review (December 2002).
Burkart, Oliver and Virginie Coudert. “Leading Indicators of Currency Crises for Emerging Countries,” Emerging Markets Review 3 (2002). Bussiere, Matthieu and Marcel Fratzscher. “Towards a New Early Warning System of Financial Crises,” Journal of International Money and Finance 25 (2006).
Ciarlone, Alessio and Giorgio Trebeschi. “Designing an Early Warning System for Debt Crises,” Emerging Markets Review 6 (2005).
Davis, E. Philip and Dilruba Karim. “Comparing Early Warning Systems for Banking Crises.” Journal of Financial Stability 4 (2008).
Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli and Enrica Detragiache. “The Determinants of
Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries,” IMF Staff Papers 45, no. 1 (1998).
Edison, Hali J. “Do Indicators of Financial Crises Work? An Evaluation of An Early Warning System,” International Journal of Finance and
Economics 8 (2003).
Esquivel, Gerardo and Felipe Larrain. “Explaining Currency Crises.” Harvard Institute for International Development (1998).
Hemming, Richard, Michael Kell and Axel Schimmelpfennig. “Fiscal Vulnerability and Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies,” Occasional Paper 218 (Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund, 2003).
Kamin, Steven B., John Schindler, and Shawna Samuel. “The Contribution of Domestic and External factors to Emerging Market Currency Crises: An Early Warning Systems Approach,” International Journal of Finance and
Economics 12 (2007).
Kaminsky, Graciela L. “Currency Crises: Are They All the Same?” Journal
of International Money and Finance 25 (2006).
Kaminsky, Graciela, Saul Lizondo, and Carmen Reinhart. “Leading Indicators of Currency Crises,” IMF Staff Papers 45 (March 1998).
Kaminsky, Graciela L. and Carmen Reinhart. “The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance of Payments Problems,” American Economic
Review 89 (1999).
Komulainen, Tuomas and Johanna Lukkarila. “What Drives Financial Crises in Emerging Markets?” Emerging Markets Review 4 (2003). Kumar, Mohan, Uma Moorthy, and William Perraudin. “Predicting Emerging Market Currency Crashes.” Journal of Empirical Finance 10 (2003).
Manasse, Paolo, Nouriel Roubini, and Axel Schimmelpfennig. “Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises,” IMF Working Paper WP/03/221 (November 2003). Manasse, Paolo and Nouriel Roubini. “‘Rules of Thumb’ for Sovereign Debt Crises,” IMF Working Paper WP/05/42 (March 2005).
Shimpalee, Pattima L. and Janice Boucher Breuer. “Currency Crises and Institutions,” Journal of International Money and Finance 25 (2006).
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