5. MARCO PARA LA INVERSIÓN
5.5. Legislación sobre propiedad intelectual
Jungheinrich’s strategy focuses on sustainably profitable and organically generated growth. We do not envisage changing our proven business model or strategic orientation. Our financing policy remains conservative especially as regards our liquidity position, enabling us to maintain our operational and strategic flexibility.
Economic and sector outlook
The world economy is likely to continue recov-ering and display tangible growth in 2014. North America, China and the Eurozone countries are expected to make the largest contributions to this growth. Experts anticipate an increase in global growth of 3.5 per cent in 2014 following 2.9 per cent last year. US GDP will probably rise by 2.8 per cent after growing by 1.9 per cent last year. The Chinese economy is forecast to maintain its high growth rate, expanding by 7.3 per cent (2013: 7.7 per cent). India should see
its economy increase by 5.8 per cent, gaining momentum over last year (4.9 per cent).
After experiencing its gross domestic prod-uct decline by 0.4 per cent in 2013, the Euro-zone is expected to post economic growth of 0.9 per cent this year. Among the countries ex-pected to make a positive contribution are those in Southern Europe. Jungheinrich’s core Euro-pean markets besides Germany, namely France and the United Kingdom, have brighter growth prognoses for the current year than for 2013.
Following last year’s recession, Italy—another of Jungheinrich’s core markets—is expected to re-cord a marginal rise in economic output. Growth rates in the key countries of Eastern Europe, such as Poland and Russia, should improve signifi-cantly. Germany is expected to post 1.7 per cent growth in 2014 after 0.4 per cent in the year un-der review. The German Engineering Feun-deration anticipates a 3 per cent increase in production.
Growth rates of selected economic regions Gross domestic product in %
Region Forecast for
2014
World 3.5
USA 2.8
China 7.3
Eurozone 0.9
Germany 1.7
Source: Commerzbank (as of February 2014).
Against the backdrop of the forecast world economic growth—including the much more positive assessment of the development of the
Eurozone’s economy—we currently expect the world material handling equipment market to continue to expand and European market
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volume to display positive development as well.
Demand in Eastern Europe should continue to rise and the recovery of the Western European economy should present opportunities for growth. We anticipate that the Asian market will record further growth if the good development of the Chinese market persists. The North Ameri-can market should also continue to grow.
Future development of the Jungheinrich Group
In light of the positive economic forecasts across the board—especially for the Eurozone—and the positive development of market volume in Europe, Jungheinrich expects incoming orders in 2014 to range between €2.4 billion and
€2.5 billion (2013: €2.36 billion). Consolidated net sales should amount to between €2.3 billion and €2.4 billion (2013: €2.29 billion). As in the preceding years, our focus will be on organic growth, to which all three business fields are expected to contribute. Net sales in the high- margin after-sales services business should be of an order similar to that of last year. The ‘Logistics Systems’ division is anticipated to display dispro-portionately strong growth as part of new truck business.
Current estimates have earnings before in-terest and taxes (EBIT) amounting to between
€170 million and €180 million (2013: €172 mil-lion). The corresponding EBIT-ROS would be at least 7 per cent. Earnings before taxes should total between €150 million and €160 million (2013: €150 million) resulting in an EBT-ROS of at least 6 per cent. These figures consider the high level of orders on hand as of December 31,
2013 and the continued increase in personnel.
The strengths of Jungheinrich’s products, such as energy efficiency, are based on innovation.
Therefore, we plan to spend about €45 million on research and development once again in the year underway. We do not expect the cost of materials or personnel expenses to experience unusual changes exceeding its budget.
Now that our large-scale strategic projects have been completed, we plan to have another large capex volume in 2014. Besides the normal level of capital expenditures on maintenance and expansion, the focus in the current financial year is on the following investment projects:
Ŕ the construction of new corporate head-quarters in Hamburg,
Ŕ the construction of a training centre at the Norderstedt factory,
Ŕ the construction or acquisition of sales offices in Asia,
Ŕ the modernization of production facilities in the Moosburg plant, and
Ŕ the expansion of the used equipment centre in Dresden.
In sum, this will cause the amount of capital spent on tangible assets in 2014 to amount to between €85 million and €95 million.
As regards the product portfolio, plans envisage launching about 20 new products on the market this year.
We plan to increase headcount even more than in 2013, in order to strengthen our sales or-ganization. The expansion of our worldwide sales organization combined with the introduction of
98 | 99 new products will enable us to increase our mar-ket penetration, gain marmar-ket share and further enlarge our share of the European market.
Since our capital structure remains conserva-tive, our Group’s financial position should prove to be extremely robust. We will maintain our high level of liquidity with a view to remaining financially independent and keeping an appropri-ate degree of financial room for manoeuvre. The remaining €46.5 million of the promissory note bond is scheduled to be redeemed as planned during the financial year underway. We are aim-ing for a net credit exceedaim-ing last year’s level by the end of 2014.
As shareholders’ equity increases, the return on capital employed (ROCE) should be between 15 per cent and 20 per cent.
We generally pursue a policy of paying steady, attractive dividends. As usual, the level of the dividend will be in line with the development of consolidated net income.
In 2014, the focal points of the financial ser-vices business are the expansion of business with IC engine-powered counterbalanced trucks and logistics systems. All in all, we expect the number of new trucks and pieces of used equipment sold via financial services to rise continuously.
Since developments cannot be foreseen, the actual business trend may deviate from the ex-pectations based on assumptions and estimates made by Jungheinrich company management.
Factors that may lead to such deviations include changes in the economic environment, changes within the material handling equipment sector as well as exchange and interest rate fluctua-tions. Therefore, no responsibility is taken for
forward-looking statements made in this Group management report.
General statement concerning the Jungheinrich Group’s anticipated development
The financial year that just ended was marked by the slow recovery of the global economy and the recession in countries belonging to the Euro-zone. The European material handling equip-ment market posted a marginal gain, growing by 2 per cent. The momentum leading to this development did not occur until towards the end of fiscal 2013. Demand in Europe in the fourth quarter of 2013 was up nearly 11 per cent on the level experienced in the fourth quarter of 2012.
Against this backdrop, we had a very good level of incoming orders at the end of 2013, enabling us to get off to a good start to the new financial year in terms of production figures. Problems encountered in commencing production in the new warehousing and system equipment factors in the third quarter of 2013 have since been resolved entirely.
We will continue to work on structural im-provements within the Group and press ahead with the refinement of our strategy. We will invest in employees, in tangible assets in line with our strategic positioning, and in our short-term hire fleet. Our integrated business model including the new truck, short-term hire, used equipment and after-sales services business fields along with our strong financial services operations form a robust basis for this. The suc-cessful conclusion of the strategic capex projects in 2013 established the prerequisites for
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izing on the positive development of the market expected to occur in 2014 and subsequent years.
In 2014, we will step up our efforts to strengthen our presence on the Asian market, successfully launch the new generation of IC-engine pow-ered trucks on the market, and further develop the logistics systems business in a focussed manner.
We anticipate that the framework conditions regarding the development of economic out-put—especially in Europe—will improve markedly and that the world material handling equipment market will grow in the 2014 financial year.
Against this backdrop, we expect both incoming orders and net sales to post substantial gains.
The preconditions for this are that the economy develops in line with our assumptions and our sales markets do not display drastic recessionary developments. The global trends in the field of
intralogistics, such as the trend to profession-alizing and modernizing warehouses, the trend towards automated solutions, and customers’
focus on intralogistics as a core competence continue to provide our integrated business model with huge opportunities.
Jungheinrich has a robust balance sheet and enough liquidity to implement measures re-quired to position itself strategically over the long term even in the event that the development of the economy and market fails to meet our expectations. Thanks to an equity ratio of about 30 per cent and a constantly high net credit, our financial position is extremely solid. We will continue to attach high importance to this in the future as well.
We are confident of being able to achieve our goals this year.