Limitación de concentración de cloruros por agua de amasado.

Setting

The demographic profile of Iraq is such that each ethnic group or sect inhabits a different part of the country. Kurds are located in the 4-5 provinces of the North East, Sunnis are predominant in the 5-6 provinces of the Middle, and the West, while Shia are the majority in the 7-8 provinces of the South and South East. Figure 4.2 illustrates the numerical size of all the 18 provinces represented in parliament and, based on the 2010 elections, displays the number of each ethnic or religious group in different colours in each.

In the Iraqi 2010-2014 and 2014-2018 parliaments, the Shia composed 52 percent of the total population, Sunnis 28 percent and Kurds 18 percent. Figure 5 illustrates the demography of each province represented in the Iraqi House of Representatives in the Iraqi parliamentary elections of 2010, and the parliamentary members of each province based on ethnic or religious background. The data was accessed in February 2014. In addition to the numbers shown in figure 5, others from the minorities include; 5 Christians,1 Baghdad, 1 Erbil, 1 Ninawa, 1 Dhuk, 1 Kirkuk; 1 Yazidi, 1 Shabak from Ninawa, and 1 Sabea from Bagdhad, a total of 8 seats based on a quota system. This data was helpful in setting and conducting the surveys.

Changes in the number of the seats allocated to each province alters the numerical strength of a certain ethno-religious group. Prior to the 2010 elections, the Iraqi parliament passed a law, adding seats to each province in a complicated process that ultimately favoured the Shia. In total, 77 seats were added affecting all 18 provinces. The Shia received 45 seats, the Sunni 22 and the Kurds 10. Although the Shia actually formed 48 percent of parliament based on 2005 Iraqi parliamentary elections, the percentage increase in seats was 58, the Sunnis increase of 22 actually formed 31 percent of the parliament, and the Kurd’s percentage increase was 13, translating to 21 percent of the parliament. This represented an overall 10 per cent increase in Shia seats even before holding the elections, enabling them to claim a majority in parliament in 2010. By identifying who is Sunni and who is Shia among the Arab representatives, it becomes clear that the additional seats and the changes to the numbers of the main groups had resulted in a clear advantage to the Shia. The following pie charts illustrate this point.

Sampling

This research takes the numerical strength of each group in the Iraqi parliament based on the 2010 elections, to devise a sample representing the Iraqi political elites’ preference for either consensus or majoritarian democracies. The sample was derived from the total number of parliament Members and the number for each group in the years 2010-2014. This representative choice enhances the validity and the reliability of this research. Table 4.4 indicates the base for the sampling process.

Table 4.4 shows the total number of Iraqi parliament members from each group. As the Shia represent 52 percent of the parliament, the number of Shia participants in this research is 52, the Sunni percentage is reflected by 28 respondents, and there are 18 respondents, mirroring the percentage held by the Kurds. The other minorities account for only 2 percent, therefore, they will have two respondents, one Christian and one Turkmen. However, the sampling used is Random Sampling (Burnham et al. 2004: 86- 7), the purpose being to use a technical and rigid procedure to eliminate bias in choosing respondents. To improve the accuracy of simple random sampling ‘stratified random sampling’ has been used, as relevant information about the members of the Iraqi political elite and their backgrounds is available. Additionally, to improve ‘systematic random sampling’, the Shia have 52 respondents in both surveys but include those holding divergent views such as the political factions affiliated to either Muqtada Sadr, Abdul Aziz al Hakim or Ayatullah Ali Sistani. This principle has also been applied to Kurds and Sunnis.

The questionnaires on support for different institutional arrangements and federalism were distributed in the Iraqi House of Representatives and the Iraqi Council of Ministers. Each questionnaire surveyed 31 percent of the Iraqi Council of Representatives (100 out of 325). The Iraqi Constitution Article 49 states that the Council of Representatives consists of a number of members, based on a ratio of one seat per 100,000 Iraqis representing the entire Iraqi people. The 100 respondents were sampled accordingly. With the Shia composing 52 percent of the parliament, this equates to 52 percent of the entire population. Therefore, out of the 100 participants the 52 respondents among the Shia is representative sample of the Shias in parliament at a ratio of 1: 3.19 and this sample is representative of the Iraqi Shia population at a ratio

TABLE 4.4 IRAQI PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS, 2010 AFTER 77 SEATS ADDED

GROUPS Shia Sunni Kurd Minorities Compensatory TOTAL

NO OF SEATS 166 87 57 8 7 325

1: 319, 230. For the Sunnis, with 28 respondents, this sample is representative of the Sunnis in parliament at a ratio of 1: 311, and of the entire Sunni population in Iraq at a ratio of 1: 310,714. Kurds have 18 respondents and this sample is representative of Kurdish Iraqi Parliament members at a ratio of 1: 3.17 and of the Kurdish population in Iraq at a ratio of 1: 316,666. The same equation applies to the two respondents of other minorities.

For the survey on support for different institutional arrangements, 25 percent of the Iraqi Council of Ministers, 12 ministers out of 31 and 15 additional Ministers of the State, including Iraq’s current and former Presidents, were all involved. The respondents in each of the surveys originally totalled more than 200 but through a process of elimination this number was reduced by half. A response was dismissed when it was incomplete, fortunately a rare occurrence, or because a group had exceeded allocation. For example, there were 35 Kurdish respondents, but only 18 of these were selected at random, to ensure a representative sample.