This PhD thesis is based on studies conducted from 2012 to 2017 within the context of several projects applied in Spain and Chile. In Spain, a study was conducted from 2012 to 2014 within the framework of the EU ULYSSES (Understanding and coping with food markets volatility towards more Stable World and EU food SystEmS) project at the School of Agricultural, Food and Biosystems Engineering of the Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (UPM). In Chile, a study was conducted from 2014 to 2017 as part of the Environmental Economics and Climate Change (eec2) project and The Water Resources Centre for Agriculture and Mining (CRHIAM) project. The former was conducted at the School of Economics and Business of the Universidad del Desarrollo
(UDD) while the latter was conducted through the Faculty of Agricultural Engineering of the Universidad de Concepción (UdeC).
The now complete EU project ULYSSES was a project of the Seventh Framework Programme co-funded by the European Commission (EC) (http://www.fp7-ulysses.eu/). The main aim of ULYSSES was to address a strategic theme entitled "Volatility of agricultural commodity markets", for which understanding and coping with long-term volatility was a key research aim. Within this context, research tasks involving projections of long-term drivers of price variability and levels were coordinated by Professor Maria Blanco. These tasks were developed in close collaboration with the Joint Research Centre (JRC), which ran biophysical simulations of agricultural production.
This project played an important role in the development of this thesis. Through this project, the author participated in several activities that generated knowledge bases for assessing the economic effects of climate change on agriculture at different scales of application through the use of regional mathematical programming models. Among these activities, the author conducted an extensive literature review of the integration of biophysical and agro-economic models for assessing economic impacts of climate change on agriculture; participated in an analysis of different results based on crop yield changes; and acquired modelling skills needed to develop agro-economic models. The outcomes of these activities are presented in four working papers and in a scientific paper published in 2015.
In Chile, projects eec2 and CRHIAM applied acquired knowledge at the regional level. Supported by the International Development Research Centre (IDRC - Canada), project eec2 aimed to quantify relationships between the expected impacts of climate change and the quality of life of the Vergara Basin's inhabitants. Project CRHIAM aimed to assess and solve problems associated with water availability levels for the Chilean agriculture and mining sectors. Both projects supported the development of two different modelling approaches used to assess impacts of climate change at the micro level for two different regions of Chile. A hydro-economic model for the basin level was used to assess the economic impacts of climate change on small-scale farmers of the Vergara River Basin, and a household model was used to assess the economic
impacts of climate change for farm households of four rural communes in the Maule region (a region highly vulnerable to climate change).
Research supported through the above-mentioned projects involved an extensive literature review and quantitative analyses of two different regions of Chile. The project resulted in the generation of four academic papers (three as a first author and one as a co-author) and of several working papers on the latest in terms of linking biophysical and agro-economic models to assess the impacts of climate change on agriculture. Further, during the thesis period, presentations were made at several conferences, and the author participated in various projects directly or indirectly related to the research.
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with this study and the various outputs generated.
Table 1. List of projects and outputs generated Ulysses project
Publication in JCR journal
Fernández, F. J. & Blanco, M. (2015). Modelling the Economic Impacts of Climate Change on
Global and European Agriculture. Review of Economic Structural Approaches. Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, 9 (2015-10): 1—53.
http://dx.doi.org/10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2015-10
Scientific papers
Fernández F.J., Blanco M., Ceglar A., M’Barek R., Ciaian P., Srivastava A.K., Lecerf R., Ramos F.,
Niemeyer S., Van-Doorslaer B. (2013). Still a challenge - interaction of biophysical and economic models for crop production and market analysis, Working Paper nº 3, ULYSSES project, EU 7th Framework Programme, Project 312182 KBBE.2012.1.4-05, http://www.fp7-ulysses.eu/ , 96 pp. Artavia M., Blanco, M., Araujo Enciso, S., Ramos, F., Van Doorslaer, B., Fumagalli, D., Niemeyer, S.,
Fernández, F.J., M’Barek R.. (2014). Production and crop roots (causes?) of volatility measures
including partial stochastic simulations of yields and macroeconomic variables, Scientific Paper nº 2, ULYSSES project, EU 7th Framework Programme, Project 312182 KBBE.2012.1.4-05, http://www.fp7-ulysses.eu/ , 36 pp.
Araujo Enciso, S., Blanco, M., Artavia, M., Ramos, F., Fernández, F., Van Doorslaer, B., Fumagalli, D. & Ceglar, A. (2014). Volatility modelling: long-term challenges and policy implications, Scientific Paper nº 5, ULYSSES project, EU 7th Framework Programme, Project 312182 KBBE.2012.1.4-05, http://www.fp7-ulysses.eu/ , 39 pp.
EEC2 and CHRIHAM projects
Publications in JCR journal
Fernández, F. J., Ponce, R. D., Blanco, M., Rivera, D., & Vásquez, F. (2016). Water variability and
the economic impacts on small-scale farmers. A farm risk-based integrated modelling approach. Water Resources Management, 30(4), 1357-1373.
Fernández, F. J., Blanco, M., Ponce, R. D., Vásquez, F., Roco, L. Implications of climate change for
dualistic agriculture: a case study in Central Chile. Regional Environmental Change, submitted Ponce, R. D., Fernández, F. J., Stehr, A., Vásquez, F. Godoy-Faúndez, A. Distributional impacts of
climate change on basin communities: an integrated modeling approach. Regional Environmental Change, accepted.
Conference Proceedings
Fernández, F.J. (2016) Modelling Climate change effects at micro-level scale: A Household-model
approach for the Maule region. Conference Paper: Encuentro Anual 2016 de la Sociedad de Economía de Chile (SECHI). Sept 1, 2016
Fernández, F.J. (2015) Water variability and the economic impact on small-scale farmers at basin
level. A risk-based integrated modelling approach Conference Paper: Encuentro Anual 2015 de la Sociedad de Economía de Chile (SECHI). Sept 25, 2015
Vásquez, F., Ponce, R. D., Letelier, E., Stehr, A., Rivera, D., Fernández, F. Economic Evaluation of Climatic Change Impacts on Water Resources at River Basin Scale: Insights from the Vergara River Basin. Paper presented in the World Water Congress XV. International Water Resources Association (IWRA). Edinburgh, Scotland. 25 to 29 May 2015.
Ponce, R. D., Fernández, F.J., Vásquez, F. Analyzing Agriculture-Water Links at River Basin Scale. Poster session presented at: World Water Congress XV; 2015 May 25; Edinburgh, Scotland
Other projects and outputs
Project
Musels – Forzantes Múltiples. Proyecto financiado por la Iniciativa Científica Milenio del
Ministerio de Economía, Fomento y Turismo Chile
Publication in JCR journal
Fernández, F.J., Ponce, R.D., Vásquez, F., Figueroa, Y., Gelcich, S., Dresdner, J. Exploring
typologies of artisanal mussel seed producers in southern Chile. Ocean and Costal Management (under review)
Government Projects
Valuing Hydrological Environmental Services provided by the Nonguén National Reserve, Chile. Tendered by Corporación Nacional Forestal – CONAF, Región del Bío Bío, Chile.
Conditions analysis for the hydro-electric development on the basins of the rivers Palena, Cisnes, Aysén, Baker, and Pascua, from the generation potential to the socio-environmental dynamics. Tendered by the Ministry of Energy, Chile.
Proposals for economic instruments for pollution control in the Villarrica lake basin. Tendered by the Subsecretaria del Medio Ambiente, Chile.