Método para el Diseño del Pavimento

While the overall size of the population in Saskatchewan is important, the age and gender distribution is at least as important from the point of view of the labour market. This is because the labour force participation rates (the percentage of the population that “participates” in the labour market by either working or looking for work) varies dramatically by age group and gender. Participation rates are zero for children and decline rapidly among older residents to reach near zero among older seniors. At the other extreme, the rates are over 95% among men 25 to 54 years of age. In effect the size of the population in a specific age-sex cohort has just as much of an impact on the supply of labour as the participation rate for that age and sex cohort. Doubling the size of a population in a given age group with no change in participation will double the supply as will doubling the participation rate with no change in the size of the population.

Figure 3.6 shows labour force participation rates for men in Saskatchewan by age group. The same information is shown for women in Figure 3.7. These figures are from the Labour Force Survey and therefore exclude the population living on Reserve.

The participation rates make it clear why the 25 to 54 age group is considered as the “primary labour market” age group. Participation rates among those in this age group are above 90% for men and approaching that level for women Young adults, namely those 15 to 24 years of age, have lower participation rates because many are attending school or at home looking after young children. Among older adults, the participation rate falls off rapidly to between 60% and 70% among those 55 to 64 years of age and to less than 25% among seniors. These figures show that the increase in participation rates that has occurred in the last thirty years has been the result of an increase in the participation rates among women in the primary labour force age group. Participation rates among men were largely unchanged over the period.

Figure 3.8 shows the age distribution of the province’s residents in 2007, the large number of people in their fifties who will soon be considering retirement and the large number in their ‘teens and early twenties poised to enter the labour market age groups.

The labour market supply can be increased in three different ways.

• Firstly, the population can increase although the increase has to occur in the primary labour market age group in order to have much of an impact on the supply.

• Secondly, there is a natural flow to the population’s age distribution. An increase in the number of young adults relative to the number of persons in the retirement age group will yield a “natural” increase in the labour force even with no migration or change in participation rates.

• Thirdly, the participation rates can increase so that a higher proportion of those currently in the province are available for work.

The age distribution in Figure 3.8 shows that in the short to medium term, the number of people turning fifty-five years of age will be about the same as the number turning twenty-five years of age. In other words, there is no “natural” growth in the labour force on the horizons. The participation rates in Figures 3.6 and 3.7 suggest that this third strategy will be the most successful for women and those in older age groups. These two groups currently have the lowest participation rates.

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 15 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 plus

Figure 3.6 Labour Force Participation Rates by Age Group, Men, Saskatchewan, Off Reserve

Population Only 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 15 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 plus

Figure 3.7 Labour Force Participation Rates by Age Group, Women, Saskatchewan, Off Reserve

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 25 to 54 years of age Boom Echo (Gen Y) Bust (Gen X)

The population in the primary labour market age group (25 to 54 years) was on an upward trend until it levelled off near 400,000 in the 1990s. The population projection prepared for Saskatchewan Advanced Education, Employment, and Labour shows a resurgence in the size of this population. This is because of several demographic factors, some actual and some projected.

a) In the next ten years the “echo” generation will be entering the primary labour market age group.

b) The young Aboriginal population will be entering the labour force in increasing numbers.

c) The recent increase in the number of people moving to Saskatchewan from other countries is expected to continue and many of these immigrants are in the 25 to 54 age group.

d) The number of interprovincial in- migrants (net of out-migrants) is expected to remain positive and the majority of these new residents are in the 25 to 54 age group.

This means that even without any increase in participation rates, the labour force will grow because international and interprovincial migration has increased the number of people in the primary labour market age group. The analysis in Section 2.1 shows, however, that with reasonable assumptions about economic growth, this will be insufficient to meet the demand. Any increase in the supply will therefore have to come from a combination of: • higher participation rates among the increasing number of people in the 25 to 54 years of age, and

Aboriginal people in particular;

• higher participation rates among those outside this primary labour market age group, that is, 15 to 24 years of age or 55 and older; and

• even higher levels of immigration from other provinces or countries.

Section 3.3 looks at opportunities for higher participation rates among the province’s Aboriginal population and Section 3.4 looks at other groups who are traditionally under-represented in the labour force. Section 3.5 looks at opportunities for increasing the participation rates of older workers. Increasing the participation rates among those 15 to 24 years of age is not seen by many as desirable because the focus for this group should be on higher levels of education rather than labour market participation.

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 1978 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008 2014 2020 2026 thousand actual projected

Figure 3.9 Population in the Primary Labour

Market Age Group (25 to 54 years), Actual and Projected, Saskatchewan