B. VALORACIÓN DE EMPRESAS
3. Métodos de Valoración de empresas
3.4 Métodos basados en el descuento de flujo de fondos (cash flows)
In addition to the flow chart determining the extent and severity of orga- nized crime, there is a need for a systematic approach to fight organized crime by law enforcement. We call it a road map, where law enforcement starts by determining an ambition level for policing organized crime. An
Yes YES Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes YES YES Yes Yes No Organization still exists? Division of labor? End Start No No No No No Many criminals involved (>3)? Violence or threats? Substantial monetary value?
Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No No No Serious criminal activity? Yes Yes Yes No No No Political influence? Corruption and bribes? No No No Transnational
activities? At international level?
No May be
No Actions by
police? laundering? Money Series of offences? Substantial monetary value? Repetition likely? Damage to society? Surely crime organized?
Figure6.2. Organized crime investigation flow chart.
extreme, ultimate ambition would be to prevent that organized crime from developing into criminal organizations, as illustrated in Figure 6.2.
A road map represents a diagnostic and assessment-based framework for consolidating efforts, reflecting the collective engagement experiences
of all law enforcement stakeholders. A road map is a visual representation of phases and factors in a plan. The road map for fighting organized crime consists of four phases, and it is catalyzed by four critical success factors. The four phases are as follows.
(1) Ambition phase. The strategic ambition phase is where politicians and executive police management develop a strategy to fight organized crime. Several documents may result in this phase. For example, the Government may supply the Parliament with a document, where
134 Knowledge Management in Policing the issues and priorities are lined up. Often, such a document is so generally formulated that it is of low value to policing. However, the political document might be followed by a more specific document by the Police Directorate formulating goals and local documents in Police Districts formulating actions. The different document levels—
politics, directorate, constabulary—need to integrate with each other, while they often do not do. To secure alignment of political ambi- tions, criminology ambitions, social ambitions, policing ambitions, and other ambitions related to organized crime, alignment mech- anisms such as content analysis, milestones, goals, and evaluations should be institutionalized.
(2) Analysis phase. The strategic analysis phase is concerned with under- standing and insights. Too often, failing actions are based on frag- mented or completely missing analysis. When fighting street gangs based on ethnic backgrounds, it is sometimes compared to fighting local Hells Angels chapters. Nothing could be more wrong. While street gangs have to be understood in a context of temporary and dynamically changing relationships and finances, MC groups have to be understood as more permanent structures and finances. Under- standing both similarities and differences between criminal organiza-
tions is critical in successfully fighting organized crime. Understand- ing differences between criminal industries such as commerce versus
robbery is crucial in selecting appropriate and contingent policing actions.
(3) Project phase. Before moving into operations, policing actions should be organized as projects. Fighting a criminal organization successfully is normally not a matter of quick policing raids and interrogations. Rather, it is about removing the foundations for their operations. Both at the top and at the bottom, criminals have to be removed. Valuables belonging to the criminal organization have to be removed, and the markets, on which it operates, have to be closed down. To coordinate such a diversity of actions, a project structure should be put in place. A project has a goal, it is a coordinated undertaking of interrelated activities, it has limited duration, and it is unique in the sense of fighting a specific criminal organization or a specific kind of organized crime.
(4) Evaluation phase. In the evaluation phase, project results are eval- uated. Evaluation does not have to wait until the project duration is expired. Rather, all major deviations from project plan should be studied. If the goal was to close down a criminal Hells Angels Motor- cycle chapter in one city, and this goal was achieved, it may not
Strategic ambition
Organized crime never to develop into criminal organisations
Knowledge If police knew what they know, more crimes would be
solved with less resources
Strategic analysis
Global, national, and local intelligences using information technology
Project results
Metrics to measure organized crime frequencies and impacts Management
Coordination of knowledge work and actions
Technology Knowledge management systems linking electronic information to knowledge work
Strategy Expert approaches to fight organised crime based on law
enforcement experience
Strategic projects
Goals, resources, time frames, responsibilities, and actions
Figure6.3. Law enforcement road map.
be satisfactory if a new chapter is established in another city with the same gang members. Therefore, one needs not only to look at project goals, but also at ambitions from the ambition phase, when evaluating project performance, as the project is just one stone in building a safe and non-criminal society.
The road map consists of the following four critical success factors. (a) Knowledge. Basic knowledge in policing includes criminology, psy-
chology, sociology, and law. To fight organized crime, required knowl- edge includes management science, organizational theory, account- ing, finance, and business administration.
(b) Technology. Information systems have to be available to both analysts and project participants. Systems should cover all four stages in the
136 Knowledge Management in Policing knowledge management technology stage model: officer-to-tools sys-
tems, officer-to-officer systems, officer-to-information systems, and
officer-to-application systems. For example, geographic information
systems with information from various sources might be combined into a complete picture of activities for simulation and prediction of organized crime.
(c) Strategy. Based on experience, police officers have an understanding
of what works and what does not work. Strategy is about approaches that work. For example, the national intelligence model in the UK represents a collection of approaches based on experience [207]. Strategy is here a choice of approaches to fight organized crime, where the choice is a selection from a wider set of alternatives.
(d) Management. Leadership is required to coordinate knowledge work and policing actions when fighting organized crime. Management is both about individuals and tasks. Individuals may be both experts and newcomers that are in need of very different kinds of coaching
and feedback. Tasks may be both small and large that are in need of very different kinds of planning and evaluation.