MADUREZ DEL SECTOR EN ESPAÑA

As it is shown in Figure 7.4, from the 26 years of SRAs, about 53% were negative. In this regard, Hauskin (2000) stated that above 50% of rainfall anomalies below the mean considered severe metrological drought. Thus, the study area experiences severe meteorological drought for the last couple of decades and there is a tendency towards greater frequency of dry years. Ayalew et al. (2012) also noted that the standardized rainfall anomalies for the Amhara region range from 46.7% for Debark to 63.3% for Metema. Figure 7.5 also showed that three years (1988, 1991 and 2002) were the most severe or extreme drought occurrences recorded. The years from 1986-1996 were characterized by deficiency of rainfall in the study area. The overall results showed that the study area like most of the northern highlands was predominantly characterized by moderate to severe drought.

161 The drought severity classes of Lay Gaint district is presented in Table 7.5. From the total SRAs calculated, 55% are found between moderate and extreme drought. Years with no drought accounted for 45% indicating that drought is a serious problem in the study area. Kinyangi et al. (2009) calculated the severity index for the northern highlands of Ethiopia and said that drought becomes severe even when many highland regions in Ethiopia receive sufficient amount of precipitation. The same authors also indicated that there is a higher likelihood for the occurrence of droughts in the north central and eastern parts of Ethiopia for the coming decades.

Table 7.5. Drought severity classes in the study area (1986-2011)

Drought severity classes Status of drought % Total - 2.0 and less Extreme drought 3.8

- 1.5 to -1.99 Severe drought 7.7

- 1.0 to -1.49 Moderate drought 43.5

- 0.99 or above No drought 45.0

Total 100

Figure 7.4. Standardized rainfall anomalies in Lay Gaint district Source: ANRS meteorological office

162

The mean annual temperature showed that there was a great change in distribution in Lay Gaint district (Figure 7.6). The paired t-test showed that the variability of temperature over the years was statistically significant (at p < 0.01). More importantly, the result of the temperature data in the study area revealed that there was an increase of temperature by about 1.250C for the last three decades. Supporting the result, World Bank (2006) reported that the mean annual temperature for Ethiopia had increased by about 1.30C between 1960 and 2006. Halonen et al. (2009) indicated that for the period between 2040 and 2069, temperatures are projected to increase between 10C and 30C for Ethiopia. Keller (2009) also indicated that the patterns of temperature in Ethiopia showed an increasing trend but the increase is more pronounced since 2000; and this result is quite similar to that of the present study. The Spearman‟s rho test, for example, evidenced that there is a positive and statistically significant change in mean temperature over the years in the study area (r = 0.56, at P < 0.01).

The increasing of temperature especially in the degraded and drought-prone areas aggravates evaporation directly affecting the moisture absorbing capacity of the soils. Halonen et al. (2009) argued that higher temperature would also probably increase the rates of evaporation and, assuming other influences remain unchanged, increase surface water evaporation affect the soil moisture balance. Tropical diseases common to the study area such as malaria, yellow fever and meningitis (among others) are mainly caused by temperature variability and change. For example, as KIs indicated, cooler areas once suitable for living are invaded by mosquito now days. The district health expert also informed that meningitis becomes one of the killer diseases in the Kolla zone of the study area during the very hottest season.

Kinyangi et al. (2009) have also reported a correlation between high temperatures and incidences of in-patient malaria; suggesting that malaria epidemics might migrate to highland regions that are experiencing an increase in maximum and minimum temperatures. Verchot et al. (2007) also indicated that diseases and insect populations are

163 strongly dependent upon temperature and humidity, and changes could alter their distributions. Disruption to agricultural production, reduced food security, increased malnutrition resulted in drought, reduced access to clean water, more favorable conditions for the spread of vector-borne diseases; increased heat stress are the results of climate change (McDevitt, 2012).

To sum up, the decline of crop production and increasing safety nets beneficiaries were the result of erratic rainfall, land degradation, high population pressure and increasing frequency of droughts. Consequently, households in the study area suffered from chronic and transitory food insecurity for many years; and the extent of the crisis was more broad and deep. Failure or unpredictable rainfall is the main cause for the decline of crop production and incidence of food insecurity. Especially, late rains have brought the total failure of maize, barely, potatoes and cabbage, which can be used as transition food for the poor. Thus, food self-sufficiency at household level is mainly caused by drought and erratic rainfall. To this end, responsive measures such as livelihood diversification, coping and adaptive strategies could be taken to become food self-sufficiency and hence food security.

Figure 7.5. The trend of temperature in Lay Gaint district (1986-2011) Source: ANRS meteorological office

164 According to Halonen et al. (2009), taking the potential increase in climate extremes into account, Ethiopia will have to find ways to adapt these scenarios. Likewise, Thomas et al. (2007) pinpointed that individuals, communities, and nations have to cope with and adapt to climate variability to mitigate the changes. As discussed in the preceding topics, the frequency and severity of droughts have increased through time that demands to develop diverse coping and adaptive strategies based on the resources owned to secure food at household level. For that reason, detail discussions have been made on households‟ coping and adaptive strategies based on agro-ecological zones and wealth categories. 7.7. Households’ Coping and Adaptive Strategies

The agricultural activity in the study area is characterized by low level of technology, low crop production and risky subsistence. Even in the modest harvesting years, the use of production enhancing technologies and crop production were extremely low. In addition, there are severe constraints in livestock sector in general and draught animals in particular. These situations forced the poor households to engage in short-term (coping) and long-term (adaptive) strategies to climate and climate-related shocks. Adaptations strategies are more of planned and anticipated, while coping strategies are usually spontaneous and have greater damage to the natural environment (Chapter 2). Sample households in the study area employ both coping and adaptive strategies in the face of wide variety of risks through their own labor, capability and resources to relieve the challenges. Thus, the succeeding discussions focus on the coping and adaptation strategies employed by the sample households during food crises and climate change scenarios.