MARCO HISTÓRICO SITUACIONAL

The following information and brief analysis have been compiled on the basis of articles and other types of written sources, electronic conversations with specialists in the field (both from research institutions as from utilities and NGOs) and personal conversations with a number of people in Brazil.

As written information is relatively difficult to find, and rarely reflect the current state of knowledge, the personal input by a number of experts has greatly contributed to this brief summary, and to parts of the analysis presented in the main body of the present report. In Brasil, we especially would like to thank Miguel Morales (USP), Claudio Ribeiro (CEPEL), Fabio Rossa (Ideaas) and prof. Roberto Zilles (USP).

It should be stressed that the analysis in the present summary are based on the interviews, but only reflect the ideas of the project team, and not of the before mentioned experts.

Analysis of ongoing efforts to introduce SHS in Brazil

In Brazil, centralised and state level institutions, have been developing ideas and implementing programs for the introduction of SHS in remote rural areas and other non electrified areas in the country. Amongst these institutions are the utilities in several states, such as CESP (Sao Paolo), CEMIG (Minas Gerais), COPEL (Parana) and COELPE (Pernambuco), and a federal program, PRODEEM, that has been aiming at installing PV to support social development in rural areas. Despite these large scale efforts to introduce SHS in the country, it seems that the right approach for the introduction of domestic systems as an alternative for grid electrification has not yet been found.

Analysing the problems with all previously mentioned top-down efforts it seems very difficult to assure the operationalisation of the following tasks:

• Scaling and installation of appropriate systems (size and composition). Under auspices of CESP, systems installed in the Valle do Ribeira were technically flawed (see Zilles 1999). Despite the fact that the formal evaluation of the PRODEEM federal program has not been published yet, it is expected that one of the results of this evaluation is that systems installed in the framework of the program are plagued by design failures. Systems acquired by the program do not meet the demand and physical possibilities of the areas in which they have to be installed and the purely technical design has been poor. Due to this design failures, training of the users seem to have had very little effect. Frequently, users seem to have been transforming the community systems, in order to better meet the conditions in which they ought to be used.

It is rather surprising to notice that these flaws in design are still occurring, given the fact that internationally recognised solar companies tend to be the main responsible for design and installation.

• Although the financing of SHS is most often an intrinsic part of project design in Brasil, in practice, it is very difficult to identify a scheme that has been fully operational and functional for a significant period of time. Surprisingly, in all projects in which the – privatised- utilities play a major role, no tariffs are being collected, despite the fact that the systems are operational (see Zilles 2000).

It should be noted that in the case of initiatives initiated by NGOs or Municipalities, this panorama might be somewhat different (see SBCS by FTV), but very little is known about their experiences. In case of the Valente project in Bahia (about 350 systems installed and operating), it seems that a strong community sense engenders a sound and sustainable financing structure, but it has not been possible to obtain any sound information on this project.

In case of PRODEEM, the program donates all the systems, and apparently no financing schemes have been put into place.

• Institutionally, early SHS programs (e.g. the CEPEL/ NREL initiative in the North Eastern regions of Brazil, in close co-operation with the state utilities) have suffered a lot from the privatisation process the utilities went through.

During privatisation, the focus has shifted away from SHS, which are still perceived to be a commercially non-viable enterprise. One of the probable causes of the traditional lack of interest for PV/ SHS is most probably caused by the fact that the Brazilian electricity sector is dominated by large scale, grid-related projects, aimed at the urban and industrial centres of the country. As most of the energy in Brazil is generated through hydropower plants, the need for the development of alternative renewable resources is not felt by most decision- makers. An important additional fact is that the rural sector for which SHS are deemed to be a sustainable (pre-)electrification option, is politically and economically marginal.

• A major problem signalled by research organisations and NGOs, is the lack of independent and systematic monitoring and evaluation. Although the CEPEL/NREL project was based on monitoring activities by the utilities, these activities were not sustained after the first year of the initiative; during the privatisation process the utilities lost all interest in the project, and did no longer meet prior agreements with NREL/ CEPEL.

Nowadays, independent monitoring and evaluation only takes place when the utilities or the federal program allow for it. Alternatively, utilities carry out their own monitoring and evaluation activities. Neither of the two activities guarantee the availability of publicly accessible results. The results presented to a wider audience could thus be biased. Independent checks of presented results indicate that this indeed might be the case.

Brazil vis a vis other countries in the region

Brazil seems to differ significantly from other Latin American countries, in the sense that people seem to be less inclined to co-operate in community structures. This can greatly hamper efforts to develop user associations or community-based credit schemes, and demands a major effort to stimulate the direct involvement of users. In fact, in all these cases, the need for electricity should be accepted as the main cause for inter-personal co-operation.

Positive development in Brazilian SHS sector

At this point in time, a series of SHS projects is starting; the initiatives by CEMIG, PRODEEM and Winrock International in the Amazon region, are mentioned as the most important ones in terms of scale and approach. These projects seem to built on previous discussions and experiences, and set out to overcome the major errors made in the past.

Two of the major utilities in the country –CEMIG and COPEL- have accepted the fact that solar still has to be subsidised, just as all other forms of rural electrification are currently subsidised in the country. Based on their conclusions and field experiences, they are treating solar exactly as they have other energy sources in rural areas.

Also, a number of bottom-up activities, initiated by Municipalities, NGOs or the inhabitants proper, are beginning to emerge. Examples are Winrock, the reaction of the users of the CESP SHS in Valle do Ribeira, and initiatives by NAPER in Pernambuco. It should be noted that on the first and last project only very general information is available, and that all projects are in an initial stage. It is therefore difficult to analyse their results in the framework of the present project. (see Zilles Glasgow 2000).

Word of caution

Despite the optimistic view towards the potential of the Brazilian SHS market, a word of caution is frequently uttered: currently, public opinion is turning against PV, as a direct result of badly managed programs and utility projects. Main example is the CESP-project in Valle do Ribeira, where the proper users are starting juridical procedures against the utility for delivering bad services. Possible, PRODEEM also will have a negative impact on the development of the market and willingness to accept PV.

ANNEX 8. LATIN IMPRESSIONS: MEXICO