CAPITULO 11. ESTUDIO DE IMPACTO AMBIENTAL
2.2 MARCO LEGAL DE REFERENCIA
% of Peak 43% 39% 17% 0.568%
% of Min 23% 39% 37% 0.568%
Max Power 60,525 54,749 24,111 796
Min Power 12,679 21,874 20,737 316
Calc TWh 255 290 192 4.2
EPRI Load Factor 38% 53% 87% —
Calc Load Factor 48% 61% 91% 60%
Note: The calculated load factors may not match the EPRI results due to different data years and region definitions between the studies.
59 RE Futures recognizes that the sectoral load factors are not likely to remain constant throughout the study period
Figure I-5. Calculated load duration curves for East Central Area Reliability Coordination Agreement in 2050
Sectoral 8760 Hour Load Schedules
While the calculations described in the previous section provided hourly loads for all four of the sectors, the residential and commercial sectors did not use the same methodology. The
commercial and residential sectors used the load curve methodology from NEMS, as described in Appendix H. Using the sectoral hourly loads for each month and region, hourly loads for the average weekday (Daytype 1), average weekend (Daytype 2), and peak weekday (Daytype 3) were calculated. Values were calculated for 2006, 2008, 2010, and every 5 years thereafter up to 2050. Different demands were calculated for the High-Demand Baseline and the Low-Demand Baseline.
These average values for weekday and weekend are sufficient to calculate the ReEDS time slices. However, they produce the same load shape for every day of the month they represent, and there is no variation due to weather. In order to create a semblance of a fluctuating load demand based on historical data, algorithms were created to modify the loads for individual days depending on the relative system load for the region in that year (using the 2006 load shapes). At the same time, the average for the month was formulated to still match the values calculated earlier and used in the ReEDS work.
As an example, the calculations using the residential data set for 8:00 a.m. 7/11/2020 Region 1 are as follows:
• Find the average and peak system load (Sa and Sp) for 8:00 a.m. on a weekday in July:
Sa = Σ (8 a.m. weekday system loads) / 21 weekdays = 71,701 MW and Sp = Max (8 a.m. weekday system loads) = 81,082 MW
• Find the average residential load for 8 a.m. on a weekday from the Building dataset: Ra = (20 x Daytype 1 from dataset + Daytype3 from dataset) / (20+1) = 20,946 MW
Rp = Daytype 3 for the peak day = 23,490 MW R = [(S - Sa)/(Sp - Sa)] * (Rp - Ra) + Ra Where:
R = Adjusted Residential Load
S = the system load for any weekday hour in July (70,394 MW on 7/11) Sa = the average system load for that same hour in July (71,701 MW) Sp = the peak system load for that same hour in July (81,082 MW) Ra = average residential load for that hour (20,946 MW)
Rp = the peak residential load for that hour (23,490 MW)
So R = [(70,394 -71,701) / (81,082 – 71,701)] * (23,490 - 20,946) + 20,946 = 20,592 MW
The weekend calculations are a bit simpler (but less accurate) because peaks for the weekend values for residential and commercial are not available, just the average:
R = Adjusted Residential*(weekend) = S/Sa * Ra So for 8 a.m. on 7/9/2020
R = Adjusted Res = [53,377 / 59,489] * 18,548 = 16,643 MW Commercial calculations are done similarly.
Because the residential and commercial load shapes from the Buildings analyses do not match the actual load shapes within a given day or month, the resulting system loads (residential + commercial + industrial + non-PEV transportation) do not necessarily match the 2006 load shape template.
Adjustment to Updated National Energy Modeling System Run and Sectoral Energy Intensities
Each of the sector energy intensities were modified, as detailed in the corresponding appendices, and the load growth from the most recently released AEO report were combined to create new expectations of loads for these two regions. Rather than recalculate the daily load shapes for each region for the commercial and residential sectors, the ratio of each sector’s new national annual load to its previous national annual load was determined. Each hourly load for the sector and region was then multiplied by that year’s value. This implies that within the sector, the changes apply equally to each hour and to every region.
Application of Algorithm to Calculate Hourly Sectoral Demands
Once each sector’s hourly loads were calculated as described above, the hourly system load for any year and region could be calculated by summing the individual sectors. Figure I-6 shows the representative load shape for the East Central Area Reliability Coordination region in 2050.
Figure I-6. Calculated hourly loads by sector for East Central Area Reliability Coordination Agreement in 2050, High-Demand Baseline
Average Demands for Each Regional Energy Deployment System Time Slice
The ReEDS model uses only 17 time slices to model the system LDC. Once the hourly loads are known for each sector, the average amount of electricity demand in each time slice can be calculated. The top 40 hours of the summer peak season are pulled out of the summer afternoon slice H3 to make slice H17. Table I-5 shows the resulting time slices for the East Central Area Reliability Coordination for 2050. The system peak shows the power level in the highest hour and is therefore a bit higher than the average over the top 40 hours. In addition, the PEV loads are not included in the transportation sector described here. Rather, PEV loads were calculated separately as described in Appendix K.
Table I-5. East Central Area Reliability Coordination Agreement Average Loads for High-Demand Baseline 2050 for Regional Energy Deployment System Time Slices
Slice Name Hours Residential Commercial Industrial Transportation Total
H1 736 21.1 26.7 21.1 0.4 69.3 H2 644 29.4 34.5 21.5 0.5 86.0 H3 328 39.2 39.5 21.9 0.6 101.2 H4 460 38.5 36.5 21.9 0.6 97.4 H5 489 17.5 23.8 20.7 0.4 62.3 H6 427 24.3 29.0 21.1 0.5 74.9 H7 244 27.1 30.5 21.2 0.5 79.3 H8 305 27.0 29.1 21.3 0.5 77.9 H9 960 20.5 26.9 21.0 0.4 68.8 H10 840 27.1 31.1 21.4 0.5 80.0 H11 480 25.4 29.1 21.3 0.5 76.3 H12 600 27.4 30.1 21.5 0.5 79.5 H13 735 18.0 24.6 20.7 0.4 63.7 H14 1,104 25.6 28.7 21.1 0.5 76.0 H15 368 25.6 29.0 21.1 0.5 76.3 H16 40 49.7 44.4 22.8 0.7 117.6 System Peak (GW) 55.7 46.9 23.4 0.8 123.8 Sector Sales (TWh) 222.9 258.2 185.8 4.1 671.0