MARCO METODOLÓGICO

The available research on ethnic inequality in the vocational education system usually has focused on the amount of inequality at a specific point in time. However, the context has changed for different immigration cohorts. First, migration flows in itsself have changed over time with respect to the diversity of their ethnic groups and the causes of the migra- tion. Research usually has focused on people from the former recruitment countries, while only a few studies have described the integration processes for newer migration popula- tions. Since these current migration groups constitute an increasing share of the foreign population in Germany, it is important to analyze how the integration processes for these groups are different from those of migrants from the former recruitment countries so to better anticipate what to expect in the future regarding the degree of ethnic inequality. Second, the shift from the manufacturing to the service sector and educational expansion has changed the opportunity structures. Therefore, older studies on the ethnic inequality in the attainment of vocational degrees are not comparable to newer studies on this topic.

This present article contributes to the current research with the analysis of these research questions:

1. Is there a trend to integration in the attainment of vocational degrees for migrants of different immigration cohorts?

2. What is the impact of the level of general secondary school education and social integration on the level of ethnic inequality in the attainment of vocational degrees in different immigration cohorts?

By comparing the results between different immigration cohorts, I increase the under- standing of the impact that differences in individual characteristics have in the changing economic structure of Europe. Thereby, migrants from the former recruitment countries are contrasted to groups from recent migration flows.

The analyses are based on pooled German microcensus data from 1996 to 2011. I compare the attainment of vocational degrees by immigrants of the first generation who immigrated to Germany before the age of 15 to the attainment of vocational degrees by natives (the age range of both groups is 28 to 35). Students in general secondary school or vocational education programmes are not included in the sample. Ethnic inequality is compared within different immigration cohorts—migrants who moved to Germany be- tween 1960 and 1975, 1976 and 1989, or 1990 and 2001. These immigration cohorts are compared to Germans who are differentiated by three birth cohorts—Germans who were born between 1960 and 1967, 1968 and 1975, or 1976 and 1983.

To control for the differences in demographic characteristics between the cohorts, bi- nary logistic regressions were calculated. The outcome variable describes the existence or non-existence of a vocational degree. All models control for the nationality groups, age, federal state, sex, and year of the survey. Regarding the second research question that asks for the impact of the differences in the endowment of human and social capital, two additional models were calculated, including the general school leaving degree and immigrant-specific assimilation indicators such as Germans in the household or the per- centage of non-nationals living in the neighborhood. The group of immigrants and natives is distinguished by nationality. Individuals who only hold a German citizenship are defined as German nationals. The immigrant population is defined by having a foreign nationality or a foreign citizenship besides a German citizenship. The definition of vocational degree includes apprenticeships, full-time vocational schools, and university/university of applied science degrees.

The main findings can be summarized as follows. The results of this article are com- parable with previous research that found an ethnic gap in the attainment of vocational degrees, which is more or less pronounced for different nationalities. One of the contribu- tions of this paper is to show the development over immigration cohorts. It was found that the gap between natives and migrants grew for the first generation migrants who migrated to Germany between 1990 and 2001 compared to the group who came between 1960 and 1975. Above all, the large increase in the gap over cohorts between Germans and Turks is alarming. The gap between the group of Central-/Eastern-/Southeastern European coun- tries and natives with respect to the attainment of vocational degrees is smaller compared to the migrants from former recruitment countries. Also, this latter group shows a growing gap in the attainment of vocational degrees compared to the attainment of these degrees by native Germans, although the increase for migrants from former recruitment countries is only half as large as for the Turks.

The gap between non-national migrants and natives is still evident when holding con- stant the secondary school leaving degrees or social integration indicators, but decreases to a large extent. A low social integration has a negative effect on the attainment of vocational degrees, but the most negative impact is a low level of general secondary school education. Having a low secondary school leaving degree explains a large part of the ethnic gap in the attainment of vocational degrees as previous research also showed. As predicted, the results prove that the negative impact of a school leaving certificate has been increasing over cohorts. Consequently, a great deal of the negative trends can be explained by the increasing gap between the average level of general secondary education between German natives who benefited from the educational expansion and the newer im- migration cohorts. However, when holding the level of general secondary school education constant, the negative trend for first generation Turks is still large.