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that the problem is somewhat less, but is increasing. The result of this excessive screening out is a shortened panellist lifetime, increased dis- satisfaction with the research process, and, at worst, an incentive to cheat on surveys.

An alternative approach to the current invitation paradigm, is to decide which survey a panellist should be presented with as they arrive to take a survey, in response to a generic invitation. By presenting a (short) set of screener questions and adding this to the already known panellist profile, a real time profile of the respondent with respect to the currently open surveys can be built, and the panellists then routed to the most appropriate open survey.

By utilising such an approach we expect to improve data quality, but at what cost? The biases introduced by a survey router (as such systems are generally known) are complex, subtle and entirely dependent on the interplay of the surveys currently in the system. Our research takes the form of a Trial by Ordeal. We have re-created a random 50 projects con- ducted in the past and placed them in a survey router situation. In addition to describing the process and the potential for the introduc- tion of bias, we will examine data distributions to assess how much effect any biases introduce to the data itself and, through simulation, estimate the size of such biases. We will also present findings on data quality – validity and reliability – comparing the two approaches.

Author: Couper, Mick P. (1); Baker, Reg (2); Mechling, Joanne (2) [1: University of Michigan, United States of America; 2: Market Strategies International, United States of America] E-mail: [email protected]

[email protected] [email protected]

NON-SUBSTANTIVE RESPONSES AND NAVIGATION IN WEB SURVEYS

Key goals of effective online survey design are to minimize missing data and to optimize “flow”, through the instrument. This paper builds on methodological research on missing data and visual design theories to optimize the design of online instruments. We will present results from two experiments. In the first, we explore strategies for dealing with non-substantive responses, such as “don’t know’s” or skipped questions. In market research, it is common to require respondents to answer each question before proceeding (restrictive approach). In aca-

demic research, it is common to let respondents skip questions they would rather not answer (permissive approach). Between these ex- tremes is a strategy that encourages respondents to provide an answer by prompting them if they skip a question (encouraging approach). We tested these three alternatives, along with the presence or absence of a “don’t know” option in a fully-crossed (3*2) design. The instrument contains a variety of different question types including grid questions and items known to elicit high levels of nonresponse. Both attitudinal and behavior questions are included. We examine the effect of these design formats on breakoffs, speed of completion, item non-response, non-substantive responses, and response distributions.

In the second experiment, we explore the placement of the navigation (next, back) buttons in Web surveys. Some surveys (typically those that require answers) include only a “next” button and do not permit re- spondent to go back. Where both buttons are included, the logical place- ment is “back” on the left and “next” on the right, but this puts the “back” button in the main visual field below the response options (left-aligned) and makes it the default (on-focus) button after selecting a response. We evaluate several different design options for button placement, with a focus on their effect on speed of completion, backwards movement, and changed answers.

Both experiments are included in a survey of opt-in panel members (n=7200). The purpose of these experiments is to explore optimal design solutions for common problems faced by designers of online surveys, with the goal of maximizing data quality and enhancing the respondent experience. Both extend previous work we have done on these issues.

ABSTRACTS

Author: Donath, Thomas M. (1); Irmer, Christoph (2) [1: NORDLIGHT research GmbH, Germany; 2: ODC Services GmbH, Germany] E-mail: [email protected] [email protected]

IS THE CROWD WISE ENOUGH TO PREDICT THE ELECTION RESULTS FOR THE GERMAN “BUNDESTAG”?

Research Question Research Question

“The Wisdom of Crowds”, a book written by James Surowiecki in 2004 about the aggregation of information in groups, claims the many to be smarter than the few. According to Surowiecki, four key criteria have to be met to enable a large group (crowd) to make accurate predictions and the right decisions in terms of reaching common goals.

1. Diversity of opinion: a wide range of points of view in the group 2. Independence of opinion: individuals making guesses do not

influence each other

3. Decentralization: local and specialised knowledge

4. Aggregation: a mechanism to reach a collective guess or decision The goal of this study was to obtain a first indication on whether a “wis- dom of crowds” approach to election prognosis could potentially com- pete with or even outperform traditional means of prognosis.

Methods & Data Methods & Data

We asked 2,323 Germans, registered in an online-access panel, to pre- dict the official outcome of the German “Bundestagswahl 2009” one week in advance. There were three major differences to surveys execut- ed by institutes like “Forschungsgruppe Wahlen” or “Infratest dimap”. Firstly, the sample was not representative.

Secondly, no weighting of raw data was employed. Thirdly and most importantly, participants were asked to give their own prognosis for all major parties rather than state which party they would vote for the fol- lowing Sunday.

Results Results

The main outcome of the study is that – in this single trial – the wisdom of crowds approach yielded a slightly less precise prognosis compared to results of traditional surveys just before the election (sum of absolute difference in percentage points: 10.3 for Wisdom of Crowds vs. 8.4 for e.g. Forschungsgruppe Wahlen and Infratest dimap).

However the precision of the wisdom of crowds approach is still high enough to justify further interest.

Also, a large number of moderator variables such as interest in politics, gender, age, or the knowledge of other prognoses correlate with indivi- dual forecast performance.

Added Value Added Value

Based on these results, we shed additional light on the idea of the wis- dom of crowds – a method which may be an interesting methodological addition to various research purposes which require prognosis.

Author: Döring, Nicola; Bohn, Alexander

[Ilmenau University of Technology, Germany] E-mail: [email protected]

[email protected]

RELATIONSHIP MANAGEMENT ON SOCIAL NETWORK SITES: A SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY VIEW

The growing body of psychological and sociological research on Social Network Sites (SNS) – such as Facebook, MySpace or studiVZ – so far focuses mainly on identity issues (self presentation, impression forma- tion, identity work) and relationship effects (social capital). A neglected research topic is the actual management of personal relationships on SNS (formation, maintenance, and termination of relationships): How are SNS used to form new relationships? How do users maintain and manage their dyadic relationships and their social networks via SNS? The social psychological theories of interdependence and social pene- tration help us to understand relationship management both offline and online. Upon this theoretical framework a qualitative research design was developed. Four focus group discussions were conducted with n=17 undergraduate students at a German university (14 female, 3 male), who mainly used studiVZ and MySpace. The group discussions were videotaped, completely transcribed and examined using qualita- tive content analysis.

The study revealed that participants use nearly all functions and ap- plications provided by SNS, such as messages, pin/bulletin boards, status updates, photo upload and deletion of contacts, to foster their relationships in diverse ways. The students carefully consider the off- line consequences of their online acts, for example by trying to foresee the reaction of their peers if they delete a friendship link. SNS users try to manage their social networks by dividing their contacts into different groups. While studiVZ is limited to local and national contacts, MySpace is used to maintain social relationships across national borders. The

ABSTRACTS