Cost estimates for providing these increased levels of service were estimated first assuming current operating costs and then assuming a 20% increase in costs. The increased costs were considered based on a need for transit agencies to increase staff wages which would allow them to attract and retain qualified staff needed to maintain and increase service levels. Labor costs typically account for approximately 70% of total costs for rural and small urban transit agencies (Mattson and Ripplinger 2011), so an increase in wages would have a significant impact on total operating costs. Based on comments from transit agencies, wages may need to increase 25-30%. Considering increases in labor costs and possible increases in other operating costs, the impacts on funding needs resulting from a 20% operating cost increase was analyzed.
According to 2012 NTD data, as reported in the 2014 Rural Transit Fact Book, the average operating expense per mile for rural transit in North Dakota was $2.87. A 20% increase would raise operating costs to $3.44 per mile. Based on average 2012 NTD data for the three urban agencies, current operating costs were assumed to be $5.00 per mile for fixed-route transit and $3.80 per mile for demand-response service.
The number of new vehicles required to provide this additional service is uncertain, as there may be some excess capacity that already exists. It is assumed, however, that a new vehicle is required for every additional 23,000 miles of service for rural and urban demand-response transit and for every 30,000 miles for urban fixed-route service, which are the approximate averages for miles driven per vehicle per year. The cost of new vehicles is assumed by be $50,000 for rural agencies, assuming a mix of cutaways, vans, and minivans; $450,000 for urban fixed-route buses; and $65,000 for urban demand-response vehicles. (Actual costs vary based on size and type of technology chosen.)
Part of the increase in fixed-route service for Bismarck-Mandan can be funded by shifting resources from the Bis-Man paratransit system, as recommended by the most recent TDP for the city. The TDP estimated that limiting paratransit service to ADA-eligible individuals in Bismarck-Mandan would provide approximately $800,000 that could be shifted to fixed-route service. Eliminating paratransit service during hours in which the fixed-route system is not in service would provide $450,000. Doubling the fares for non-ADA riders on the paratransit service would provide $285,000. Bis-Man Transit could shift $500,000 from paratransit to fixed-route service and still provide more vehicle miles of paratransit service per capita than in Fargo and Grand Forks and approximately the same number of vehicle hours per capita. Therefore, it is recommended that part of the increase in Bismarck-Mandan’s fixed-route
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service would come from a $500,000 shift in resources, reducing the estimated increase in operating expenses by that amount.
The increased dollars needed to fund these service expansions is detailed in Tables 7.6-7.8. All expenses are expressed in 2014 dollars. The increased operating expenses for fixed-route transit depicted in these tables is the revenue needed after accounting for the $500,000 shift in funding for Bismarck-Mandan. Without this shift, increased operating expenses would be $500,000 greater than those shown in the tables.
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Table 7.6 Estimated Increases in Operating and Vehicle Expenses for Expanded Mobility Options, Given Current Population
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4
Rural Transit
Increase in Vehicle Miles 658,514 819,397 1,150,317 1,287,875
Number of New Vehicles Needed to Provide New Service
29 36 51 56
Cost of New Vehicles $1,450,000 $1,800,000 $2,550,000 $2,800,000
Operating Expense to Provide Additional Miles with Current Operating Costs
$1,889,936 $2,351,669 $3,301,410 $3,696,201 Operating Expense to Provide Additional
Miles with 20% Increase in Operating Costs
$2,267,924 $2,822,003 $3,961,692 $4,435,441 Total Expenses with Current Operating
Costs
$3,339,936 $4,151,669 $5,851,410 $6,496,201
Total Expenses with Increased Operating Costs
$3,717,924 $4,622,003 $6,511,692 $7,235,441
Urban Fixed-Route Transit
Increase in Vehicle Miles 299,051 299,051 390,236 482,996
Number of New Vehicles Needed to Provide New Service
10 10 14 17
Cost of New Vehicles $4,500,000 $4,500,000 $6,300,000 $7,650,000
Operating Expense to Provide Additional Miles with Current Operating Costs
$995,255 $995,255 $1,451,181 $1,914,981 Operating Expense to Provide Additional
Miles with 20% Increase in Operating Costs
$1,294,305 $1,294,305 $1,841,417 $2,397,977 Total Expenses with Current Operating
Costs
$5,495,255 $5,495,255 $7,751,181 $9,564,981
Total Expenses with Increased Operating Costs
$5,794,305 $5,794,305 $8,141,417 $10,047,977
Urban Demand-Response Transit
Increase in Vehicle Miles 0 0 0 83,824
Number of New Vehicles Needed to Provide New Service
0 0 0 4
Cost of New Vehicles $0 $0 $0 $260,000
Operating Expense to Provide Additional Miles with Current Operating Costs
$0 $0 $0 $318,533
Operating Expense to Provide Additional Miles with 20% Increase in Operating Costs
$0 $0 $0 $382,239
Total Expenses with Current Operating Costs
$0 $0 $0 $578,533
Total Expenses with Increased Operating Costs
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Table 7.7 Estimated Increases in Operating and Vehicle Expenses for Expanded Mobility Options, Given Projected 2020 Population
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4
Rural Transit
Increase in Vehicle Miles 823,584 1,169,145 1,642,788 1,729,805
Number of New Vehicles Needed to Provide New Service
36 51 72 76
Cost of New Vehicles $1,800,000 $2,550,000 $3,600,000 $3,800,000
Operating Expense to Provide Additional Miles with Current Operating Costs
$2,363,687 $3,355,447 $4,714,802 $4,964,540 Operating Expense to Provide Additional Miles
with 20% Increase in Operating Costs
$2,836,425 $4,026,537 $5,657,762 $5,957,448
Total Expenses with Current Operating Costs $4,163,687 $5,905,447 $8,314,802 $8,764,540
Total Expenses with Increased Operating Costs $4,636,425 $6,576,537 $9,257,762 $9,757,448
Urban Fixed-Route Transit
Increase in Vehicle Miles 445,546 520,460 624,063 629,360
Number of New Vehicles Needed to Provide New Service
15 18 21 21
Cost of New Vehicles $6,750,000 $8,100,000 $9,450,000 $9,450,000
Operating Expense to Provide Additional Miles with Current Operating Costs
$1,727,730 $2,102,298 $2,620,314 $2,646,798 Operating Expense to Provide Additional Miles
with 20% Increase in Operating Costs
$2,173,276 $2,622,757 $3,244,377 $3,276,157
Total Expenses with Current Operating Costs $8,477,730 $10,202,298 $12,070,314 $12,096,798
Total Expenses with Increased Operating Costs $8,923,276 $10,722,757 $12,694,377 $12,726,157
Urban Demand-Response Transit
Increase in Vehicle Miles 0 75,800 75,800 83,824
Number of New Vehicles Needed to Provide New Service
0 4 4 4
Cost of New Vehicles $0 $260,000 $260,000 $260,000
Operating Expense to Provide Additional Miles with Current Operating Costs
$0 $288,040 $288,040 $318,533
Operating Expense to Provide Additional Miles with 20% Increase in Operating Costs
$0 $345,648 $345,648 $382,239
Total Expenses with Current Operating Costs $0 $548,040 $548,040 $578,533
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Table 7.8 Estimated Increases in Operating and Vehicle Expenses for Expanded Mobility Options, Given Projected 2025 Population
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4
Rural Transit
Increase in Vehicle Miles 891,321 1,341,289 1,839,210 1,867,312
Number of New Vehicles Needed to Provide New Service
39 59 80 82
Cost of New Vehicles $1,950,000 $2,950,000 $4,000,000 $4,100,000
Operating Expense to Provide Additional Miles with Current Operating Costs
$2,558,093 $3,849,500 $5,278,534 $5,359,186 Operating Expense to Provide Additional Miles
with 20% Increase in Operating Costs
$3,069,711 $4,619,400 $6,334,241 $6,431,023
Total Expenses with Current Operating Costs $4,508,093 $6,799,500 $9,278,534 $9,459,186
Total Expenses with Increased Operating Costs $5,019,711 $7,569,400 $10,334,241 $10,531,023
Urban Fixed-Route Transit
Increase in Vehicle Miles 660,607 693,719 806,443 806,443
Number of New Vehicles Needed to Provide New Service
23 24 27 27
Cost of New Vehicles $10,350,000 $10,800,000 $12,150,000 $12,150,000
Operating Expense to Provide Additional Miles with Current Operating Costs
$2,803,037 $2,968,596 $3,532,215 $3,532,215 Operating Expense to Provide Additional Miles
with 20% Increase in Operating Costs
$3,463,645 $3,662,316 $4,338,659 $4,338,659
Total Expenses with Current Operating Costs $13,153,037 $13,768,596 $15,682,215 $15,682,215
Total Expenses with Increased Operating Costs $13,813,645 $14,462,316 $16,488,659 $16,488,659
Urban Demand-Response Transit
Increase in Vehicle Miles 0 140,136 140,136 140,136
Number of New Vehicles Needed to Provide New Service
0 7 7 7
Cost of New Vehicles $0 $455,000 $455,000 $455,000
Operating Expense to Provide Additional Miles with Current Operating Costs
$0 $532,517 $532,517 $532,517
Operating Expense to Provide Additional Miles with 20% Increase in Operating Costs
$0 $639,020 $639,020 $639,020
Total Expenses with Current Operating Costs $0 $987,517 $987,517 $987,517
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In urban areas, farebox revenue currently covers about 16% of operating expenses, while federal funds cover 35-40%, state funds about 9%, and local funds about 24% (with other sources accounting for the remainder), with some variations between the three agencies. Farebox revenue currently covers about 14% of operating expenses in rural areas, with local, state, and federal funds accounting for about 11%, 26%, and 47% of expenses, respectively. Federal funds are used for a majority of capital expenditures in the state, with the remainder largely coming from local sources. Table 7.9 shows federal funds covering 91% of capital expenses in the state in recent years, but these numbers were influenced by federal spending from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA). Excluding ARRA funds, the federal share of capital expenses is 80%.
Table 7.9 Sources of North Dakota Transit Funding, 2009-2012
Rural Urban Operating Expenses Federal $4,456,161 47% $17,131,707 39% State $2,358,052 26% $3,954,924 9% Local $1,192,456 11% $10,465,944 24% Fares Revenue $1,206,608 14% $7,022,624 16% Other $274,916 3% $5,678,406 13% Capital Expenses Federal $5,806,093 91% $14,242,120 91% State $658 2% $45,703 0% Local $315,943 8% $848,803 5% Other 0% $584,636 4%
Source: National Transit Database, 2009-2012
Note that the funding needs estimated in this section are strictly to cover the increased operating costs and new vehicles needed to provide this service. Transit agencies also have other funding needs for improving facilities and regular replacement of existing vehicles.