soybeans, cotton and rapeseed) represent around 80% of the total number of commercialized GM events, whereas by 2015 this figure will fall to around 60%. New varieties for some of the most important crops for global agriculture, such as rice (no GM rice is yet commercially used) or potatoes, will eventually be included in the list of available GM varieties. Also for “smaller” (but no less relevant) crops, such as tomato, eggplant, papaya, alfalfa, or cabbage, new genetically engineered varieties are expected to be available by 2015. Thus, there will be a slight but significant diversification in terms of genetically modified species, but also in terms of traits. Even if the two main existing ones (herbicide tolerance and insect resistance) will still dominate by 2015, other agronomic traits are also expected. These traits (some new) include resistance to viruses, improved resistance to diseases and tolerance to abiotic stresses (such as drought or high salinity). The first ‘second generation’ GM crops are also expected to be commercially available by 2015. These crops will specifically address the needs of consumers through, for instance, improved fatty acid profile or higher content in beta carotene. Some crops with events designed to meet the needs of the industrial sector (including the biofuel industry) will also be available.
Major changes are expected in the years to come concerning the region of origin of GM events. Indeed, while in 2008 three out of four commercialized GM events were still developed by North American or European companies, the coming years will see the emergence of technology providers from Asia as a major source of GM events. This region will be especially active by putting on the market the first GM rice varieties, even if the release of some of the GM rice events in the pipeline a few years ago has been delayed or even cancelled. Most of the rice events close to commercialization are insect resistant varieties, in addition to the biofortified rice called Golden Rice.
However, both in India and China, governments do not consistently support the release of GM rice and other GM food crops. In China, concerns about possible low consumer acceptance of GM food and recently tightened controls on Chinese rice exports to the EU appear to have slowed down the approval process for GM rice. In India, various new regulations regarding biotechnology are waiting to be promulgated. Nevertheless, in both countries the dynamic of the research pipeline seems unaffected by the uncertainties of governments. Recently, a Bt rice event (Bt63) received a biosafety certificate from the Chinese regulatory agency, but variety registration is still delayed. Numerous field trials are conducted in China for crops with different traits, including insect resistance, herbicide tolerance, drought and salt tolerance, nitrogen use efficiency, and grain quality, many of them developed by public national centres.
In India, the central government continues to authorise new field trials, but they are subject to the final approval of the local state governments. Nevertheless, late stages of regulatory trials for a Bt rice developed by a private company have recently been conducted, and other trials are following. In the case of Golden Rice, an event genetically modified to express genes that lead to the accumulation of beta carotene in the rice grain – beta carotene is a precursor of vitamin A – the development is already quite advanced, and a regulatory dossier could be delivered to the authority in the Philippines by 2013. Indeed, among Asian countries, the Philippines and Indonesia might be the ones releasing the first commercial GM rice in the next years.
New GM events and implications for socio- economic impact assessment
The new traits incorporated by the GM crops in the pipeline would require new socio- economic indicators to assess their impact. Improvement in crop quality may generate nutritional or health benefits for consumers, and thus may change their attitude toward GM crops.
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New evaluation methods and new economic indictors are required to measure the direct nutritional or health effects of these crops with new traits for nutritional improvement, and to compare the cost effectiveness of the use of these crops with alternative public health measures.
Actually, some ex ante assessments of the impacts of new GM crops are already available. In the case of Golden Rice, recent studies estimated (using a Disability Adjusted Life Years [DALY] indicator) the reduction in morbidity and mortality potentially generated by the introduction of this crop. Results show a significant beneficial health impact, at a lower cost when compared with alternative public measures. Ex ante studies for Bt rice conducted in China estimated huge internal gains for rice production, even when considering the potential loss of export markets.
In the case of the European Union, a recent ex ante study simulated the level of adoption and the economic impacts of the introduction of a GM maize designed to control the Western Corn Rootworm, a pest that arrived in Central Europe in the 1990s. This trait is available in the USA but not yet in the European Union. Different options for crop protection were compared (crop rotation, chemical protection or GM maize), and the high heterogeneity within farmers in the region was taken into account in the model. The bio- economic simulations predict that in Hungary, for 69% of the farmers in a land constraint situation, the crop rotation option will ensure a higher income than GM maize, whereas 78% of maize monoculture farmers would be better off relying on GM maize than on insecticide applications. Results from other Central European countries indicate that, in general terms, the introduction of this new GM maize in Central Europe would significantly reduce the quantity of soil insecticides used, and offer a better protection against the economic loss due to Western Corn Rootworm by increasing the available crop protection toolbox.
Discussion:
Experts discussed the accuracy of the commercial pipeline of GMOs. Big discrepancies were noted in the past between the announced and actual dates of release for certain GM events. However, it was also noted that, in some cases, new GM crops had been available in a shorter time than expected. In sum, commercial pipelines are not very reliable when dealing with longer term, and should instead be focused on events in the later stages of R&D. But with time, experts expect an increase in the probability of developed events eventually being commercially released, as more public or public-related actors, who have a more accurate view of the needs of the market, will be involved in the research funding.
The experts also discussed the impact of the evolution of world agricultural markets on the development and trade of GM crops, with a special reference to the recent ’food crisis’, i.e. the 2007-08 rise in food prices. It was noted that in some Asian countries, such as Bangladesh, the increase in food prices concentrated the consumption of the poorest households on rice, dramatically reducing their dietary diversification. Therefore this situation reduced the intake of higher nutrient foods, exacerbating micronutrient deficiency troubles, especially among women, and thus made the biofortified crops more relevant. Additionally, in sub-Saharan Africa, the so-called food crisis or some acute drought conditions have made a number of poor countries more tolerant of importing GM white maize and incorporating it into their food system. This might eventually change attitudes there towards GM crops.
Prospects:
This session brought back to mind the fact that the pipeline for GM events is really active and that the number of crops and traits developed with the help of biotechnology will strongly increase in the coming years. Experts