4. Construcción de una propuesta de modelo metodológico de análisis
4.2. Construcción del modelo
4.2.1. Metáfora: Fin en sí mismo individual
behaviour involve choices among discrete alternatives. Therefore, it is observed that a Multinomial logit (MNL) procedure is adopted in international literature when the dependent variable is a choice variable with more than two options. The main advantage of this procedure is to evaluate more than two decisions.
In the international literature, it has also been observed that the issues related to developed economies are entirely different from that of developing countries. As depicted by studies related to Australia and New Zealand. In those countries the problem is not that women have to choose between working and leisure rather their choice lies among switching between the employment states i.e. full time to part time employments. They tend to take such a decision due to the child birth or child rearing activities. On the other hand, a woman belonging to under developed soci- eties like Pakistan has to choose between states of employment given their cultural, demographic
and socio-economic constraints, specifically within the household and generally in the society.
Chzhen (2009) explores the effect of childbirth on the risks of downgrading (i.e. switching from full-time employment to part-time) in thirteen European countries. It has been observed that in Netherlands, Belgium, Austria and the UK, the part-time rates are relatively higher. Therefore, women are more likely to switch to part-time jobs than to remain employed as full-time worker. However, in case of Italy, despite lower part-time wages females are still moving to the part- time work. Furthermore, the likelihood of moving from full-time job to unemployment becomes higher with the increase in child birth in Ireland, Italy, the UK and Finland. Similarly, recent childbirth increases the risk to switch to inactivity in Netherlands, France, Italy, Greece, Germany and Austria. However, the results from Denmark and Spain contradict the point of view, if human capital and workplace characteristics are controlled, for those full-time workers who gave birth in
year t, the probability to stay as full-time in the following year t+1 is high. Du and yuan Dong
(2010) examine the impact of labour force participation on childcare choices during the economic
transition in urban China. The Multinomial Logit model takes the options 0 mother does not work, 1 mother works but does not use non-parental care, 2 mother works and uses formal care relative to option 3 that mother works and uses informal care suggesting that due to childcare reform, access to informal caregivers became increasingly critical for women’s labour force participation.
The probability of being in full employment, part-time employment, unemployed or out of
labour force is observed byDu and yuan Dong(2010) andWinkelmann and Winkelmann(1997).
The factors namely age, marital status, education, unemployment rate and location are used as explanatory variables in the MNL model. They sample of 150,000 Maori and non-Maori working- age individuals is taken from the census of New-Zealand for the period of 1981, 1986 and 1991. The findings support the viewpoint that the probability of full-employment increases and that of unemployment decreases with the increase in qualifications. Moreover, the results highlight that married men are more likely to be in full-time employment than non-married men.
De Munoz(2007) also estimates the determinants of FLFP for Venezuela using cross-section data between 1995 and 1998. MNL regressions are performed on a sample of women 15-60 years old and also for sub-samples of married women, single women and women heads of household using individual, demographic, socioeconomic, and geographical characteristics to examine labour market behaviour. There are three choices: whether to participate in the formal sector; the informal sector or not to participate at all. The findings underlie important observations that a woman who is a head of household is significantly more likely to participate in both the informal and formal
sectors. Age and marital status of women also has a significant positive impact on participating in the employment activities. The marginal effects of education show that probability of participation increases with greater educational attainment. By utilizing the labour force surveys of 2007 and 2010 for Swaziland on a sample of youth aged 20-29 years, the MNL model has been applied among five groups of labour market status, (inactive, employed in an informal private sector, formal private sector, public sector or is self-employed), where unemployment is the reference
status. The independent variables are age in years, gender, region and educational level.Brixiova
and Kangoye(2013) show that age has a positive relationship with the likelihood of being in the private sector, public sector employment or self-employed, rather than being unemployed (base
category). Compared with men, females are more likely to be inactive than unemployed.Stephens
(2010) explores the factors affecting the labour market status of indigenous individuals in Australia
by utilising the 2002 “ National Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Social Survey (NATSISS)”. The MNL regression analysis is used to model labour force status as a function of factors covering the geographic, demographic, education, health, culture, crime and housing characteristics. Given the significant variation across remote and non-remote areas, a particular attention is given to the geographical areas. The study demonstrates the relevance of all the diversified factors in determining labour force status among the Indigenous population. Also, it highlights the complex array of key issues which are crucial in raising the employment.
The impact of education on female labour market participation is measured bySackey(Sackey)
using Ghana living standards survey cross-section data for 1998-99, covering the sample of fe- males aged 15 years and above. On the basis of MNL estimates, she proposes that female school- ing matters in both rural and urban areas. Improvements in the human capital as well as productive employment of females always impacts favourably on participation and a negatively on their fer- tility.
A MNL approach has also been applied to investigate labour market status of female carers in
Australia. Gray and Edwards(2009) modelled the labour force states as employed, not employed
but wants to be in paid employment, and not in the labour force. They claim that major factors associated with lower rates of employment for female carers are: low levels of education attain- ment, poor health, caring for a child with disability and not having people outside the household to provide support.
Neimann(2007) explores the impact of having a spouse on the labour force participation deci- sion of older married individuals by using monthly observations from the German Socio-Economic
Panel (GSOEP). The analysis focuses on the relationship between the retirement decision and the labour market status of the partner. Therefore, transition probabilities of a set of discrete labour force states defined by the employment status of the two spouses are estimated by using multino- mial logit models. He notices that the labour force status of the spouse effects the labour market behaviour not only through its financial consequences but also through the possibilities to share leisure time together.
Multinomial models of labour market exit are estimated for UK and Germany. Oswald(1999),
using panel data from the BHPS (1991 to 1997) and GSOEP data (1984 to 1997) takes the sample of individuals in a status of work from the age of 50 to 68. The sample includes two possible non-working states of labor force from Germany i.e. unemployed and retired, and three from UK i.e. retired, unemployed and sick. In Germany, the development was mostly attributed to the favourable conditions in the social security system. In UK, the increasing coverage of occupational and private pensions seems to be responsible for the low labour force participation of older persons.