Metodología de evaluación

5.2.1 Various end uses compete for biomass

Biomass can be used for multiple applications, e.g. electricity production, the chemical industry, industry heat generation, household heating and biofuels for mobility. Since biomass is only limitedly available, increasing the amount of

biomass to be used for one application, decreases the amount available for others. For some applications other low-carbon energy sources are available or are likely to become commercially viable in the near future. Some examples are light duty electric vehicles , sustainable electricity production by means of solar or wind. However, for industrial heat, household heating and the chemical industry, suitable alternative sources are for not expected in the short term. This is also the case for energy carriers for heavy duty vehicles and vessels.

In the end, the ways in which biogas is produced and used, depend on

governmental incentives and the specific conditions at the sites where the biomass becomes available.

43 _{Land grabs for biofuels driven by biofuels policies. Carlo Hamelinck, 2013 July.} 44

Analysing the effect of biofuel expansion on land use in major producing countries: evidence of increased multiple cropping biomass research report 1301. Biomass Research, Wageningen, 1 July 2013

5.2.2 Global availability of biomass

The global biofuels production has increased significantly in the last decade ((figure 19). Ethanol is by far the most produced end-product, followed by biodiesel.

Between 2010 and 2050 the production of biofuels is expected to grow significantly in all regions of the world (Figure 20). In this period the share of biodiesel and biomethane is expected to increase (Figure 21). The IEA expects that 50% of the feedstock for advanced biofuels and biomethane will be obtained from wastes and residues.

Figure 19 Global biofuel production between 2000 and 201045

Figure 20 Biofuel demand by region between 2010 and 205045.

Figure 21: Demand for biofuels (left) and resulting land demand (right) 45.

Figure 22: Global energy use in the transport sector (left) and use of biofuels in different transport modes (right) in 2050 (BLUE Map Scenario)45.

5.2.3 Availability of biomass in Europe

As shown in Figure 20, the share of biofuels in the European energy supply for transport is expected to increase significantly. Part of this additional demand is likely to be produced within Europe. Therefore Eastern Europe has been identified as region in which approximately 40 Mha of underutilised and abandoned

agricultural land could be cultivated to produce additional biomass feedstock46. In other parts of Europe, land availability is a potentially limiting factor and more efficient use of waste and residues will play an important role to enable further development of the biofuel sector.

Het IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy47 gives for Europe a biomass

potential for non-food applications of 18 to 27 EJ in 2030. Refer to Figure 23, which

46 _{REFUEL (2008), Eyes on the track, Mind on the horizon. From inconvenient rapeseed to clean}

wood: A European road map for biofuels, REFUEL, Petten.

47

IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation. Prepared by Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

also shows production costs and supply quantities of first and second generation feedstock:

- 1e generation: plant oil, sugar and starch

- 2e generation: wood and grass

The first generation biomass includes Used Cooking Oil and waste streams from food production. The first generation biomass gives the natural feedstock for bio- diesel and bio-ethanol. Bio-ethanol, biodiesel (BTL) and bio methane can also be produced from the second generation feedstock, although these production routes are still in a research phase. So far ethanol production is the most developed one. Production of biogas from wood may be an option in order to produce large quantities of biogas from second generation feedstock.

Figure 23 Left: European biomass potential for biomass

Right: cost-supply curves for specific biomass options for Europe and Ukraine Source: IPCC (2011).

The IEA World Energy Outlook (2013)48 presents an energy mix for Europe for

2013. Refer to Table 20. The table shows a (liquid) biofuels quantity of 13% to 25% depending on the scenario. Gaseous fuels are limited to 2% in these scenarios. The study also projects a 20% share of second generation biofuels for 2035, which means that for the coming decades first generation feedstock49 and fuels may dominate. The European Commission and Dutch government want a faster transition to second generation biofuels. The question is whether policies will enter into force in time and whether R&D and up scaling of production are sufficient to make this transition faster.

Table 20. Energy mix for transport for EU in 2030 for two scenarios (IEA 2013).

New policies scenario 450 scenario

Mtoe PJ % Mtoe PJ %

Oil 212 8880 77% 137 5740 59%

Bio-fuels 35 1470 13% 58 2430 25%

Electricity 10 420 4% 16 670 7%

Other (incl. gas) 5 210 2% 5 210 2%

Total 275 11510 233 9760

48

IEA World Energy Outlook 2013. International Energy Agency, Parish.

5.2.4 Availability of biomass in The Netherlands

In a Dutch fuel mix assessment in 2014, energy consumption projections for road transportation for 2030 and 2050 were made. The maximum availability was estimated as presented in table 21. For 2030 however a range was given of 5 to 80PJ50.

Table 21 Estimated maximum available biofuel quantities, based on Dutch fuel mix assessment

PJ 2030 2050

Biofuel (liquid) 64 144

Biogas 16 36

Total (max) 80 180

The current energy use for transport in the Netherlands is currently about 500 PJ. So the estimated maximum biofuel availability for 2030 and 2050 correspond to respectively 15% and 35% of the current energy use.

According to a recent publication by the Dutch Biogas Forum51, an increase of biofuels produced via fermentation is expected in The Netherlands up to 2030, because additional fermentable (wet) waste streams are likely to become available for biogas production:

 manure, in particular cattle manure because of changing market conditions and

regulation; in addition, also pig and chicken manure;

 sewage sludge;

 grass;

 by 2030, an additional biomass stream is to be expected, i.e. seaweed.

Biogas could potentially generate approximately 13-20 PJ52,51 by 2020, which would

be between 4 and 7% of the Dutch renewable energy target.

50

G. Koornneef e.a. (TNO), H. van Essen e.a. (CE Delft), M. Londo e.a. (ECN): Verzamelde kennisnotities t.b.v. de visie duurzame brandstoffenmix (collected knowledge notes for Dutch fuel mix assessment). 27 June 2014

51

Routekaart hernieuwbaar gas, juni 2014

52

Breeuwer J. Deploying liquid biomethane in the Dutch transport sector Analysing economic, environmental and organisational sustainability

Figure 24 Potential energy from biogas obtained from anaerobic digestion in the Netherlands51.

Compared to fermentation, gasification technology is still immature: further

development of gasification technologies is required before large-scale applications become viable. In the end, strategic choices have to made on the final products produced via gasification. i.e. which existing intermediate and final products will be competed with. Prices of those competing products ultimately determine the route and determines the allowable costs of biomass conversion technologies.