4. Pacientes y métodos
4.6. Metodología del estudio
The Group makes estimates and assumptions that affect the reported amounts of assets and liabilities within the next financial year. Estimates and judgements are continually evaluated and based on historical experience and other factors, including expectations of future events that are believed to be reasonable under the circumstances.
i Future benefit payments from long-term insurance contracts
The estimation of future benefit payments from long- term insurance contracts is one of the Group’s most critical accounting estimates. There are several sources of uncertainty that need to be considered in the estimate of the liability that the Group will ultimately pay for such claims. Note 32 contains further details on this process.
The determination of the liabilities under long-term insurance contracts is dependent on estimates made by the Group. Estimates are made as to the expected number of deaths for each of the years in which the Group is exposed to risk. The Group bases these estimates on standard mortality tables that reflect historical mortality experience. The estimated number of deaths determines the value of the benefit payments and the value of the valuation premiums. The main source of uncertainty is that epidemics such as AIDS could result in future mortality being significantly worse than in the past for the age groups in which the Group has significant exposure to mortality risk.
However, continuing improvements in medical care and social conditions could result in improvements in longevity in excess of those allowed for in the estimates used to determine the liability for contracts where the Group is exposed to longevity risk. For contracts without fixed terms and with discretionary participation in profits, it is assumed that the Group will be able to increase mortality risk charges in future years in line with emerging mortality experience. Estimates are also made as to future investment income arising from the assets backing long-term insurance contracts. These estimates are based on current market returns as well as expectations about future economic and financial developments. The average estimated rate of investment return is 12.25% p.a.(2013:13.5% p.a.).
Notes to The Financial
Statements (Continued)
3 Critical accounting estimates and judgments
in applying accounting policies (continued)
ii Claims reserving and determination of IBNR
The estimation of future contractual cash flows in relation to reported losses and losses incurred but not reported is a key accounting estimate. There are several sources of uncertainty that need to be considered in the estimate of the liability that the Group will ultimately pay for such claims. Case estimates are computed on the basis of the best information available at the time the records for the year are closed. Further details on the process used to estimate claims incurred but not reported and amounts recorded as liabilities at the end of the current and previous year are set out in note 32 of the financial statements.
iii Fair value of financial assets
Fair values of certain financial assets recognised in the financial statements are determined using valuation techniques based on assumptions that are not supported by prices from current market transactions or observable market data.
The fair values of financial instruments that are not quoted in active markets are determined by using valuation techniques. Where valuation techniques (for example models) are used to determine fair values, they are validated and periodically independently reviewed by qualified senior personnel.
iii Fair value of financial assets (continued)
All models are certified before they are used, and models are calibrated to ensure that outputs reflect actual data and comparative market prices. To the extent practical, models use observable data, however, areas such as credit risk (both own and counterparty), volatilities and correlations require management to make estimates.
iv Recoverable amount of receivables
Critical estimates are made by the directors in determining the recoverable amount of impaired receivables. This process is set out in note 2(j). The carrying amounts of receivables are shown on note 4(b).
v. Goodwill impairment
Critical estimates have been made by directors in determining whether the goodwill is impaired. These assumptions are disclosed on note 18.
4 Risk Governance and Risk Management
System
Risk management objectives
Risk management is a central part of the Group’s strategic management process hence we continuously seek to enhance the risk management capabilities of the Group. It is anticipated that our risk management practices will increase the probability of success, and reduce both the potential of failure and the uncertainty associated with achieving the group’s overall objectives.
The objectives of the Group’s risk management activities are to achieve sustained competitive advantage via a rigorous, group wide risk management system that is fully aligned to the Group values, strategic business initiatives and processes. At a strategic level, our risk management objectives are to: • Identify the Group’s significant risks in relation to the
corporate strategies pursued;
• Formulate the Group’s risk appetite and ensure that business profile and plans are consistent with it; • Optimise risk/return decisions by taking them as
closely as possible to the business, while establishing strong and independent review and challenge structures; • Ensure that business growth plans are properly supported
by effective risk infrastructure;
• Manage risk profile to ensure that specific financial deliverables remain possible under a range of adverse business conditions; and
• Help executives improve the control and co-ordination of risk taking across the business.
Our risk management strategy defines the extent of the risks we are prepared to incur for our clients and shareholders. The development of our risk strategy is embedded in the annual planning cycle and hence in our business strategy. That is, Integrating Strategy, Risk and Performance management takes place at strategy setting, first with a full Executive management consensus on clearly defined business objectives. Once Executive management have defined the objectives, they then identify the key risks that may present an opportunity to pursue those business objectives, or impede their ability to achieve them.
Notes to The Financial
Statements (Continued)
4 Risk Governance and Risk Management
System (continued)
Organisational structure
To ensure that our risk management operates efficiently and effectively, we have established a specific risk management function within UAP Global Services as a Shared Service for the entire Group. Our Risk Management supervises risk management Group-wide with the support of decentralised structures in all units of the Group. It is headed by the Group Risk and Compliance Manager (GCRM), who is supported by interdisciplinary teams of highly qualified staff. The Group’s activities expose it to a variety of risks, including insurance risk and financial risk.
The Group’s overall risk management programme focuses on the identification and management of risks and seeks to minimise potential adverse effects on its financial performance, by use of underwriting guidelines and capacity limits, reinsurance planning, credit policy governing the acceptance of clients, and defined criteria for the approval of intermediaries and reinsurers. Investment policies are in place which help manage liquidity, and seek to maximise return within an acceptable level of interest rate risk. Management Framework ensure that staff in our risk management structure and the Group as a whole are kept informed of our risk strategy, organisation and processes, enabling the risks incurred to be actively controlled.
Risk Management Framework
In order to achieve its mission and objectives, the Group has developed an Enterprise Risk management framework to provide a guide within which key risks affecting the group are identified, measured and managed.
This risk management framework also provides management with proven risk management guidelines that support their decision-making responsibilities and processes, together with managing the risks that impact on the objectives of the Group. At the heart of the risk management framework is a governance process with clear responsibilities for taking, managing, monitoring and reporting risks. The Group articulates the roles and responsibilities for risk management throughout the organization, from the Board of Directors and the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) to its businesses and functional areas, thus embedding risk management in the business
The UAP Risk Management Framework is the Group’s main risk governance document; it specifies the Group’s Target Risk Management Operating Model including Risk management
authorities and responsibilities, procedures and reporting requirements. The risk management framework also classifies the risks the Group faces into broad risk categories. The Group regularly enhances the ERM Framework to reflect new insights and changes in the Group’s environment.
One of the key elements of the Group’s risk management framework is to foster risk transparency by establishing risk reporting standards throughout the Group. The Group regularly reports on its risk profile, current risk issues, adherence to its risk policies and improvement actions both at a local and on a Group level. The Group has procedures in place for the timely referral of risk issues to senior management and the Board of Directors.
The implementation of the framework is driven by a risk management culture and awareness that permeates throughout the Group and is supported by a set of policies and procedures; Tools; and A robust reporting mechanisms The Group continues to consciously take risks for which it expects an adequate return. This approach requires sound judgment and an acceptance that certain risks can and will materialize in the future.
Significant risks
According to our classification, significant risks are risks that could have a long-term adverse effect on the Group’s assets, financial situation or profitability. We have applied this definition consistently to the individual business units and legal entities, taking account of their individual risk tolerance. The section below summarises the significant risks faced by the group and how they are managed.
(a) Insurance risk
The risk under any one insurance contract is the possibility that the insured event occurs and the uncertainty of the amount of the resulting claim. By the very nature of an insurance contract, this risk is random and therefore unpredictable. For a portfolio of insurance contracts where the theory of probability is applied to pricing and provisioning, the principal risk that the Group faces under its insurance contracts is that the actual claims and benefit payments exceed the carrying amount of the insurance liabilities.
This could occur because the frequency or severity of claims and benefits are greater than estimated. Insurance events are random and the actual number and amount of claims and benefits will vary from year to year from the level established using statistical techniques. Experience shows that the larger the portfolio of similar insurance contracts, the smaller the relative variability about the expected outcome will be.
Notes to The Financial
Statements (Continued)
4 Risk Governance and Risk Management System (continued)
(a) Insurance risk (continued)
In addition, a more diversified portfolio is less likely to be affected by a change in any subset of the portfolio.
The group has developed its insurance underwriting strategy to diversify the type of insurance risks accepted and within each of these categories to achieve a sufficiently large population of risks to reduce the variability of the expected outcome. Factors that aggravate insurance risk include lack of risk diversification in terms of type and amount of risk, geographical location and type of industry covered. The following tables disclose the concentration of insurance risk by the class of business in which the contract holder operates and by the maximum insured loss limit included in the terms of the policy. The amounts are the maximum insured loss limit of the insurance liabilities (gross and net of reinsurance) arising from insurance contracts.
Year ended 31 December 2014 Class of business
Maximum insured loss Total Kshs Kshs Kshs Kshs’ (Amounts presented in Kshs ‘000) 0-15m 15-250m 250-1000m 000 General insurance business
Motor Gross 4,408,647 9,706,147 29,801,063 43,915,857 Net 3,008,472 4,338,726 1,401,268 8,748,466 Fire Gross 1,953,844 22,035,557 465,136,394 489,125,795 Net 1,941,969 12,926,165 424,428,386 439,296,520 Accident Gross 3,416,087 18,279,058 136,641,696 158,336,841 Net 2,986,386 12,114,477 12,714,023 27,814,886 Other Gross 1,729,969 18,428,253 280,998,139 301,156,361 Net 1,546,671 5,266,738 159,691,031 166,504,440
Life assurance business
Ordinary life Gross 5,480,030 76,472 - 5,556,502
Net 5,480,030 76,472 - 5,556,502
Group life Gross 156,624,959 289,952,470 1,573,376,035 2,019,953,464 Net 144,927,847 140,592,989 166,487,878 452,008,714
Total Gross 173,613,536 358,477,957 2,485,953,327 3,018,044,820 Net 159,891,375 175,315,567 764,722,586 1,099,929,528
Notes to The Financial
Statements (Continued)
4 Risk Governance and Risk Management System (continued)
(a) Insurance risk (continued)
Year ended 31 December 2013 Class of business
Maximum insured loss Total Kshs Kshs Kshs Kshs’ (Amounts presented in Kshs ‘000) 0-15m 15-250m 250-1000m 000 General insurance business
Motor Gross 168,476,154 42,999,496 27,657,719 239,133,369 Net 71,202,059 24,288,847 24,088,914 119,579,820 Fire Gross 50,865,749 181,956,950 1,878,497,428 2,111,320,127 Net 48,277,183 149,503,666 524,052,869 721,833,718 Accident Gross 57,480,314 121,019,174 131,355,729 309,855,217 Net 42,617,920 73,100,208 100,927,152 216,645,280 Othe Gross 44,516,137 104,901,481 364,827,237 514,244,855 Net 35,480,283 54,091,446 22,825,828 112,397,557
Life assurance business
Ordinary life Gross 3,495,236 41,472 - 3,536,708 Net 3,495,236 41,472 - 3,536,708 Group life Gross 103,763 6,014,209 23,434,506 29,552,478 Net 99,717 5,320,810 15,951,543 21,372,070
Total Gross 324,937,353 456,932,782 2,425,772,619 3,207,642,754 Net 201,172,398 306,346,449 687,846,306 1,195,365,153
The concentration by sector or maximum insured loss at the end of the year is broadly consistent with the prior year.
(b) Financial risk
The Group is exposed to financial risk through its financial assets, financial liabilities (investment contracts and borrowings), reinsurance assets and insurance liabilities. In particular the key financial risk is that the proceeds from its financial assets are not sufficient to fund the obligations arising from its insurance and investment contracts. The most important types of risk are credit risk, liquidity risk and market risk. Market risk includes currency risk, interest rate risk, equity price risk and other price risks.
These risks arise from open positions in interest rate, currency and equity prices, all of which are exposed to general and specific market movements. The risks that the Group primarily faces due to the nature of its investments and liabilities are liquidity rate risk and equity price risk.
The Group manages these risks through policies set out by the Finance and Investment Committee of the Board (FIC). These policies have been developed to achieve long-term investment returns in excess of the Group’s obligations under insurance and investment contracts. The principal technique is to match assets to the liabilities arising from insurance and investment contracts by reference to the type of benefits payable to contract holders. For each distinct category of liabilities, a separate portfolio of assets is maintained.