MINISTERIO DE EDUCACIÓN

Cohort one. As shown on Table 3.76, Cox regression analyses for termination from outpatient treatment among cohort one produced regression models that were significantly different than null models. With the exception of either/both outpatient treatment, the addition of predictor variables at each stage generated significantly better fitting models, as indicated by decreased -2 log likelihood values and significant change statistics. With regards to either/both outpatient treatment, the regression model for stage three, with all predictors entered into the analyses was the only significant model.

Compared to findings based on the total sample, the Cox regression models predicting treatment termination among cohort one yielded slightly different results (see Table 3.77 for direct comparisons). For termination from any outpatient treatment among cohort one, the following variables were associated with an increased risk of termination at any time post-detention: male gender (HR = 1.27, CI = 1.19-1.36), higher number of prior arrests (HR = 1.04, CI = 1.02-1.06), conduct disorder (HR = 1.16, CI = 1.07-1.25), and pre-detention outpatient treatment (HR = 1.20, CI = 1.08-1.34) (Table 3.78). Variables associated with decreased risk of terminating outpatient treatment included being a violent offender (HR = 0.93, CI = 0.87-0.99), having a non-conduct mental disorder (HR = 0.62, CI = 0.56-0.68), having a substance-related disorder (HR = 0.91, CI = 0.85-0.98), and larger number of disorders (HR = 0.95, CI = 0.94-0.96). As shown in Table 3.77, results were similar for the total sample and cohort one, with the exception that age, charge severity, and pre-detention non-outpatient treatment were no longer significant predictors of termination among DAs in cohort one.

With regards to terminating mental health outpatient treatment for cohort one, male gender (HR = .19, CI = 1.09-1.29), larger number of prior arrests (HR = 1.35, CI = 1.01-1.55), conduct disorder (HR = 1.11, CI = 1.01-1.22), and pre-detention outpatient treatment (HR = 1.25, CI = 1.11-1.41) emerged as significant variables associated with increased risk of termination. In contrast, non-conduct mental disorder (HR = 0.40, CI = 0.35-0.47) and higher number of disorders (HR = 0.94, CI = 0.93-0.96) were associated with decreased risk of termination from post-detention mental health outpatient

107

detention non-outpatient treatment were not significant variables associated with

terminating mental health treatment, whereas these variables were significant predictors for the total sample (Table 3.77).

As shown in Table 3.79, significant variables associated with increased risk of terminating substance-related outpatient treatment among cohort one included male gender (HR = 1.60, CI = 1.38-1.85), age (HR = 1.07, CI = 1.02-1.12), and larger number of prior arrests (HR = 1.07, CI = 1.03-1.11). DAs with substance-related disorders (HR = 0.90, CI = 0.84-0.97) and more disorders (HR = 0.95, CI = 0.93-0.98) faced significantly decreased risk of termination from post-detention substance-related outpatient treatment. Contrary to findings for the total sample, number of charges, charge severity, conduct disorder, non-conduct mental disorder, and pre-detention outpatient treatment failed to remain significant variables for cohort one with regards to risk of termination from substance-related outpatient treatment services (Table 3.77). For termination from either/both post-detention outpatient treatment among cohort one, age (HR = 12.10, CI = 1.02-1.18) was associated with increased risk, while length of detention stay (HR = 0.98,

CI = 0.97-0.99), mental disorder (HR = 0.29, CI = 0.17-0.51) and number of disorders

(HR = 0.95, CI = 0.93-0.97) were associated with decreased risk of terminating services (Table 3.79). As noted in Table 3.77, compared to findings for the total sample, length of stay emerged as a newly significant variable and prior arrests failed to remain significant in impacting the risk of termination from either/both outpatient treatment among DAs in cohort one.

Cohort two. Table 3.80 displays the model summary statistics and change statistics for the Cox regression analyses for treatment termination among cohort two, with the addition of RAI scores and MAYSI-2 positive screen (yes/no) as independent predictors. Results from the chi-square tests indicate that the four regression models were significantly different than null models with no predictors. The addition of predictors at stage one and stage three significantly improved the models; however, the entry of criminal history variables at stage two (including RAI scores) failed to generate better fitting regression models. The following variables were associated with

108

among cohort two: age (HR = 1.37, CI = 1.31-1.42), larger number of prior arrests (HR = 1.02, CI = 1.00-1.03), charge severity (HR = 1.09, CI = 1.03-1.16), pre-detention non- outpatient treatment (HR = 1.19, CI = 1.03-1.27), and pre-detention outpatient treatment (HR = 1.31, CI = 1.13-1.53). In contrast, DAs diagnosed with non-conduct mental disorders (HR = 0.53, CI = 0.45-0.63), substance-related disorders (HR = 0.68, CI = 0.61- 0.71), and more disorders (HR = 0.91, CI = 0.90-0.93) faced a decreased risk of

terminating post-detention outpatient treatment. As shown in Table 3.77, male gender, violent offender, and conduct disorder were all significant variables associated with treatment termination for the total sample and cohort one, but these variables were non- significant for cohort two.

Regarding mental health outpatient treatment among DAs in cohort two, variables associated with increased risk of termination included male gender (HR = 1.19, CI = 1.01-1.40), age (HR = 1.63, CI = 1.25-1.36), number of prior arrests (HR = 1.02, CI = 1.00-1.04), pre-detention non-outpatient treatment (HR = 1.37, CI = 1.14-1.64), and pre- detention outpatient treatment (HR = 1.43, CI = 1.18- 1.68) (Table 3.81). Significant variables associated with decreased risk of termination included RAI scores (HR = 0.98

CI = 0.97-0.99), non-conduct mental disorder (HR = 0.45, CI = 0.35-0.58), substance-

related disorder (HR = 0.67, CI = 0.58-0.78), and larger number of disorders (HR = 0.92,

CI = 0.90-0.94). Compared to prior analyses for the total sample and cohort one,

substance-related disorders emerged as a significant variable for cohort two, whereas conduct disorder was no longer associated with risk of terminating mental health outpatient treatment (Table 3.77). It should be noted that RAI scores emerged as a significant variable; this marked the only regression analysis in which RAI scores were significant.

As shown in Table 3.82, four variables were significantly associated with terminating post-detention substance-related outpatient treatment among DAs in cohort two. Specifically, male gender (HR = 1.56, CI = 1.04-2.33) and older age (HR = 1.47, CI = 1.34-1.62) were linked to an increased risk, whereas substance-related disorder (HR = 0.78, CI = 0.44-0.93) and number of disorders (HR = 0.89, CI = 0.85-0.94) were linked to a decreased risk of termination. When considering results based on the total sample

109

(Table 3.77), charge number, charge severity, conduct disorder, non-conduct disorder, and pre-detention outpatient treatment were significant variables for the total sample, but non-significant variables for cohort two. Finally, with regards termination of post- detention either/both outpatient treatment among cohort two, older age (HR = 1.52, CI = 1.33-1.73) and length of stay (HR = 1.02, CI = 1.01-1.03) were associated with

significantly higher risk of termination. Mental disorder (HR = 0.52, CI = 0.32-0.86) and larger number of disorders (HR = 0.90, CI = 0.86-0.94) were associated with lower risk of terminating from either/both outpatient treatment services (Table 3.82). Compared to findings for the total sample and cohort one (Table 3.77), charge number and pre-

detention outpatient treatment were no longer significant variables and length of stay produced significant hazard ratios in the opposite direction for cohort one versus cohort two. Finally, screening positively on the MAYSI-2 failed to significantly impact the risk of termination from post-detention outpatient treatment during the study time frame.