Current Age All Women No.of EMW Ref .P e r .Births ASFR ASMFR
15-19 140 7 0 — — 20-24 128 59 17 133 288 25-29 102 88 16 156 181 30-34 86 80 6 69 75 35-39 77 73 4 51 54 40-44 59 59 0 — — 45-49 49 45 0 — — TFR 2.045 TMFR 2.9 641 411 49
Source: Pregnancy History, 1984-85.
Age specific marital fertility also indicates the effect of delayed age at marriage during the early ages and fertility control during later years. The age specific marital fertility rate indicates that child bearing occurs mainly among women in their twenties. Since age at marriage is high, there is a tendency for women to have their first child immediately. The age specific marital rates among the older couples are indicative of fertility control. Couples use birth control methods soon after they have the desired number of children.
Nevertheless, the low level of total fertility may be inferred as a decline in fertility, because of the fact that the total marital fertility rate for Ernakulam district (in which the study village is located) during the period 1965-70 was 6.5 and declined to a level of 4.5 during the period 1975-80 (World Bank, 1981:148). Moreover, the total fertility rate estimate based on the 1981 census
for the state as a whole is 2.4 (2.5 for rural and 2.05 for urban areas) which indicates a low fertility level (Census of India, 1981). A comparison of religious groups shows
that Hindus and Christians have lower fertility than Muslims: the total fertility rates for Hindus, Muslims and Christians for the state as a whole are 2.16, 3.64 and 2.07 respectively. Hence, the total fertility rate of 2.0 for the village is reasonable because the village has a predominantly Hindu and Christian population.
5.3 Fertility Trends
Owing to the absence of proper records of vital statistics for the village, the pregnancy histories recorded for each woman were used to estimate the fertility levels in the past by calculating from them the average parity at exact ages within the age cohorts. This method clearly shows that if fertility were constant the differences in the average parity at the same ages for women in all age cohorts would be negligible. On the other hand, if fertility were declining the differences in parity values at exact ages for women in different age cohorts would be significant.
Although pregnancy histories were recorded for all women, only the women in the age range 15-59 were considered in order to calculate the average parity, on the assumption that women in this age range could recall their pregnancies. On the other hand, a few women aged 60 years and above had problems in recalling pregnancies. Of the 47 women in the age group 60-69, the complete pregnancy histories could be recorded for only 21 women. Thus, the number of older women for whom the data on pregnancies were
recorded was small and this group was excluded from the analysis.
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Table 5.2.Average Parity Attained by Exact Ages for Age cohorts, All Women,
Exact Age at Interview
Age 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 15 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 16 .00 .00 .00 .01 .02 .04 .03 .02 17 .01 .00 .00 .01 .05 .04 .03 .02 18 .02 .05 .02 .04 .05 . 12 .09 .04 20 .10 .21 .17 .25 .27 .31 .21 .30 23 .71 .60 .92 1.02 .88 .85 . 94 25 1.10 1.00 1.38 1.63 1.55 1.62 1.60 27 1.43 1.87 2.20 2.12 2.24 2.28 30 1.90 2.36 3.03 3.04 3.29 3.17 33 2.81 3.63 3.82 4.26 4.11 35 2.99 3.90 4.29 4.79 4.66 38 4.10 4.78 5.56 5.28 40 4.17 4.90 5.85 5.60 43 4.94 6.06 5.87 45 4.98 6.18 5.94 47 6.18 5.98 N 140 128 102 86 77 59 49 34 47
Source: Pregnancy History, 1984-85
In calculating the average parity at exact ages, the information on age of woman and the number of births refers to the data collected at the beginning of the study. A single point of time is chosen in order to maintain uniformity in calculating rates. While cumulating average parity at exact age for each age cohort, the lower limit of that particular age cohort is considered because all the women in that cohort would have passed through that age. On the other hand, if an upper age limit is considered, a woman at the upper age limit would have had a higher number
of children than a woman in the lower age limit which could result in problems of censoring or truncation.
Although there are a few fluctuations, the average parity at exact ages indicates a declining trend in
fertility levels (Table 5.2) . The following inferences can be made from this table. First, the zero parity at exact age 15 and also lower parity values during the early reproductive period suggest that even in the past, childbearing started in late adolescence because of delayed age at marriage. The zero parity at exact ages 16 and 17 for women in age groups 15-19, 20-24, 25-29 and 30-34 also suggests that fertility is controlled at early ages because of a rising age at marriage. Secondly, the small differences in parity values at exact age 25 for all cohorts suggest that though marriage is delayed among the age groups 25-29 and 30-34, there is no delay in having the first child. Thirdly, the large differences in parity values at later ages suggest that fertility is increasingly controlled once couples have smaller desired numbers of children. For example, by exact age 30, women in age cohort 30-34 had had 1.9 live births while women over 40 years had had over 3 live births by the same age. Similarly, by exact age 40, the current age cohorts 40-44 and 45-49 had had lower parity values than age cohorts 50-54 and 55-59. It is highly unlikely that the women in age cohort 30-34 could attain the parity of over 4 children that was reached by women in age cohorts 40-44 and older. These trends indicate a marked decline in fertility.
Women in age cohort 35-39 will not achieve an average parity of 5 or 6 as in the case of women in age groups 50- 54 or 55-59, because the average parity at exact age 35 is
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