CAPÍTULO IV PROPUESTA
4.1 MODELADO Y DISEÑO DE BASE DE DATOS
The analyses presented here do not exhaust the potential of the data col-lected, but are to be understood as examples of applications which may be joined by others. The data could for example be used for analyses of occupations in order to improve the occupational guidance of the employ-ment service centres. Further possible applications for educational plan-ning arise almost inevitably.
The analyses contained in this paper confirm the value of the data col-lected. The study design used permits cross-validation by comparing the results of the two waves and the individual variables in the two cross-sections. It can be seen here that the strategy pursued of collecting data about the labour market and the informal sector in a particularly differen-tiated and refined way has proved to be worthwhile for Vietnam.
Due to their quality the data can be of use for diverse applications and questions from the field of science as well as from labour-market, educa-tion, economic and development policy. One example is the model calcula-tion for the funding of unemployment benefit. Since the data are very reli-able and very detailed they permit the calculations required.
Further interesting conclusions concern the education and training estab-lishments. The wage analyses show that the returns on investment in edu-cation and training are generally somewhat greater in private enterprises than in state-owned enterprises. This points to the effectiveness of the investments. The finding supports the assumption that an expansion of vocational training reinforces the development process in Vietnam.
Beyond the practical use of the analyses, their scientific value is to be measured in the light of the fact that there are not many reliable sources of data about Vietnam. The survey conducted in 1999 was used by Viet-namese social research as a key input for further work. According to in-formation from ILSSA, the questionnaire was the basis for the design of other surveys as far as the global Labour Force Survey. It is to be hoped that more impulses for social research result from the 2005 survey. In particular the longitudinal perspective seems to be important for under-standing the Vietnamese economy and the labour market.
References
Blien, Uwe; Hauff, Michael von; Phan, thi Hong Van (2005): "A selective look at institutional factors behind Vietnam's development", in: Mutz, Klump (2005): 170-194.
Blien, Uwe; Hauff, Michael von; Phan, thi Hong Van (1998): "Walking on a Knife-Edge. The Development of Vietnam's Economy and Labour Mar-ket", in: Internationales Asienforum - International Quarterly for Asian Studies 29/3-4: 277-296.
Diekmann, Andreas (1995): "Empirische Sozialforschung. Grundlagen, Methoden und Anwendungen", Reinbek b. Hamburg: Rowohlt.
Friedman, Jed (2004): "Firm ownership and internal labour practices in a transition economy. An exploration of worker skill acquisition in Viet-nam", in: Economics of Transition 12/2: 333-366.
Gallup, John Luke (2004): "The Wage Labor Market and Inequality in Viet-nam in the 1990s", in: Glewwe, Paul; Agrawal, Nisha; Dollar, David (2004) (ed.): "Economic Growth, Poverty and Household Welfare in Vietnam", Washington D.C.: World Bank: 53-93.
Klump, Rainer (2006): "Pro-Poor Growth in Vietnam: Miracle or Model?"
Paper of the University of Frankfurt.
Mutz, Gerd; Klump, Rainer (2005) (Eds.): "Modernisation and Social Transformation in Vietnam. Social Capital Formation and Institution Building", Hamburg: IFA.
Münich, Daniel; Svejnar, Jan; Terrell, Katherine (2005): "Returns to hu-man capital under the communist wage grid and during the transition to a market economy", in: The Review of Economics and Statistics 87/1: 100-123.
Van Arkadie, Brian; Mallon, Raymond (2003): "Vietnam - a transition tiger?" Asia Pacific Press.
World Bank (2005) (Ed.): "World Development Report 2006: Equity and Development", Washington, New York: World Bank, Oxford University.
Table 1: Indicators of economic development in Vietnam
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
GDP per capita (US$) 214 250 326 317 330 374 401 410 430 475 540 640
Growth rate in real terms (%) 8.8 9.5 9.3 8.2 5.8 4.8 6.79 6.9 7.04 7.24 7.7 8.4
Inflation rate 9.5 12.7 6.5 6.0 9.2 0.1 -0.6 0.8 4 3 9.5 8.4
“Residual growth” 6.37 6.01 3.05 1.09 0.11 5.88 4.24 2.00 -4.00 6.53 -10.74 GDP (bn Dong VN) 178534 228892 272036 313623 361017 399942 441646 484493 518601 605566 644700 Population (m) 70.8 72 73.2 74.3 75.5 76.6 77.6 78.7 79.7 80.9 82 83.12 Export (US$m) 4054.3 5198 7330 9145 9365 11540 14449 15027 16706 19880 26505 32230 Import (US$m) 5825.8 8353 10483 10461 10341 10460 14072 14401 24990 31958 36880 Balance of payments on current account
(US$m)
-1772 -3155 -3153 -1316 -976 1080 377 626 -5110 -5453 -4650
Foreign debt burden (US$bn) 5.6 6.9 8.5 8.8 19.9 20.5 11.6 12.2 13.3 17.2 Unemployment rate 5.9 5.8 6.9 7.4 6.44 6.28 6.01 5.78 5.6 5.3 Foreign investment: - carried out 1729.9 2986.6 2940.8 2334.4 1805.6 693.3 1525.6 1044.1 1825.8 - announced (both US$m) 3765.6 6530.8 8497.3 4649.1 3897.0 1568.3 2012.4 2503 3600 Sources: General Statistical Office, internal information from MOLISA, CIEM
Unit: persons
2005 1999
Total Women Men Total Women Men
Total 6577 3393 3184 6949 3554 3395
of working age 5766 2864 2902 6030 3037 2993
1. Working 3571 1794 1777 3285 1686 1599
2. Retired people doing spare-time work 547 306 241 813 476 337
of working age 346 171 175 613 366 247
4. Retired people without spare-time work 464 279 185 422 203 219
of working age 225 103 122 248 97 151
5. Training without spare-time work 1577 775 777 1985 916 979
of working age 1296 630 642 1478 715 763
6. Unemployed 128 46 82 259 96 163
Source: own calculations using the data from the labour market surveys conducted in Vinh in 1999 and 2005
Formal sector Informal sector
Vocational training Total Employees Self-employed
N % wage N % wage N % wage N % wage
No vocational training, no qualifications 162 9.7 421 896 30.3 407 163 39.8 284 733 44.5 435 Lowest vocational training without qualifications 93 5.6 478 181 6.1 405 30 7.3 274 151 9.2 431 Vocational school – incomplete, without qualifications 93 5.6 388 271 9.2 459 90 22.0 395 181 11.0 492 Vocational school – completed but no qualifications 261 15.6 478 248 8.4 543 73 17.8 502 175 10.6 560 Full-time vocational school 516 30.8 475 360 12.2 504 38 9.3 383 322 19.6 519 Polytechnic, university, other institution of higher
education 507 30.3 613 98 3.3 647 15 3.7 541 83 5.0 666
Master’s degree, doctorate 35 2.1 991 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other qualification 7 0.4 720 3 0.1 500 1 0.2 100 2 0.1 600
Total 1674 100 520 2057 69.6 459 410 100 364 1647 100 482
Source: own calculations using the data from the labour market survey conducted in Vinh in 1999
Formal sector Informal sector
Vocational training Total Employees Self-employed
N % wage N % wage N % wage N % wage
No vocational training, no qualifications 90 4.6 802 958 55.0 889 198 45.9 610 760 57.9 972 Lowest vocational training, without qualifications 133 6.7 1023 147 8.4 1081 41 9.5 1002 106 8.1 1114 Vocational school – incomplete, without qualifications 56 2.8 835 158 9.1 1100 60 13.9 710 98 7.5 1372 Vocational school – completed but no qualifications 260 13.1 1085 190 10.9 1228 70 16.2 1252 120 9.1 1213 Full-time vocational school 448 22.6 1114 182 10.4 1182 35 8.1 740 147 11.2 1299 Polytechnic, university or other institution of higher
education 823 41.6 1377 96 5.5 1950 23 5.3 976 73 5.6 2295
Master’s degree, doctorate 68 3.4 1652 3 0.2 1133 2 0.5 1100 1 0.1 1200
Other qualification 9 0.5 1318 2 0.5 475 7 0.5 1600
Total 1978 100 1194 1743 100 1062 431 100 797 1312 100 1149
Source: own calculations using the data from the labour market survey conducted in Vinh in 2005
Formal sector Private enterprise State-owned ent.
Vocational training
N % wage N % wage N % wage No vocational training, no qualifications 162 9.7 421 26 27.1 742 136 8.6 360 Lowest vocational training, without qualifications 93 5.6 478 4 4.2 400 89 5.6 482 Vocational school - incomplete, without qualifications 93 5.6 388 24 25.0 502 69 4.4 349 Vocational school – completed but no qualifications 261 15.6 478 17 17.7 492 244 15.5 477 Full-time vocational school 516 30.8 475 19 19.8 550 497 31.5 473 Polytechnic, university or other institution of higher
education 507 30.3 613 5 5.2 910 502 31.8 610
Master’s degree, doctorate 35 2.1 991 1 1.0 800 34 2.2 997 Other qualification 7 0.4 720 0.0 7 0.4 700
Total 1674 100 520 96 100 595 1578 100 515
Source: own calculations using the data from the labour market survey conducted in Vinh in 1999
Formal sector Private enterprise State-owned ent.
Vocational training
N % wage N % wage N % wage No vocational training, no qualifications 90 4.6 802 34 22.1 618 156 8.6 841
Lowest vocational training, without qualifications 133 6.7 1023 14 9.1 1228 119 6.5 999 Vocational school – incomplete, without qualifications 56 2.8 835 10 6.5 704 46 2.5 863 Vocational school – completed but no qualifications 260 13.1 1085 29 18.8 1027 231 12.7 1092 Full-time vocational school 448 22.6 1114 29 18.8 1275 419 23.0 1102
Polytechnic, university or other institution of higher
education 823 41.6 1377 36 23.4 1509 787 43.1 1371
Master’s degree, doctorate 68 3.4 1652 2 1.3 1100 66 3.6 1669
Other qualification 0.0 0.0
Total 1978 100 1194 154 100 1097 1824 100 1202
Source: own calculations using the data from the labour market survey conducted in Vinh in 2005
2005 1999 Change as a
Number Income Number Income percentage
Formal sector 1978 1218 1674 520 134.2
of which: state administration 779 1248 768 523 138.6 state-owned enterprises 1045 1168 868 499 134.1 private enterprises 154 1097 96 595 84.4
Informal sector 1743 992 2057 459 116.1
of which: employees 431 797 410 364 119.0
self-employed 1312 1151 1647 482 138.8
Source: own calculations using the data from the labour market surveys conducted in Vinh in 1999 and 2005
Formal sector Informal sector
Employees in priv. ent.
State admin.
State-owned ent.
All Private State All Employees
Dep. variable=logarithm of the hourly wage N: 1560 N: 83 N: 1477 N: 1259 N: 318 N: 401 N: 644 N: 833 R2= 0.21 R2=0.17 R2= 0.23 R2= 0.10 R2= 0.31 R2= 0.22 R2= 0.23 R2= 0.24
Coef. Coef. Coef. Coef. Coef. Coef. Coef. Coef.
_cons 0.7** 0.500 0.65* 0.490 0.240 0.170 0.690
Age 0.04*** 0.04*** 0.08*** 0.08*** 0.09*** 0.04** 0.04**
Age2 -0.0003** -0.0003** -0.001*** -0.001*** -0.001*** -0.0004* -0.0003
Woman -0.16*** -0.17*** -0.28*** -0.37*** -0.27*** -0.12** -0.20***
Primary school, no qualifications (reference cat.) Primary school qualification 0.390 0.500 -0.02 -0.06 0.030 0.390 Lower secondary school qualification 0.350 0.470 0.040 0.200 0.080 0.740 0.370 Upper secondary school qualification 0.380 0.500 0.100 -0.07 0.040 0.800 0.380 No vocational training, no qualifications (ref.) Lowest vocational training, no qualifications 0.060 0.080 0.002- 0.32* 0.180 0.020 0.110 Vocational school – incomplete, no qualifications 0.130 0.02- 0.060 0.13* 0.13* 0.040 -0.06 Vocational school – completed but without
qualifications 0.110 0.13* 0.19** 0.42*** 0.35*** 0.29** 0.070
Full-time vocational school 0.13** 0.15*** 0.850 0.170 0.23* 0.14* 0.15*
Polytechnic, university, other institution of
higher education 0.32*** 0.34*** 0.37** 0.370 0.60*** 0.38*** 0.31***
Master’s degree, doctorate 0.54*** 0.56*** 0.75*** 0.42***
Other qualification 1.06*** 1.08*** 1.08***
Results for private enterprises in the formal sector can not be interpreted due to low case numbers
* significant at the 5% level, ** significant at the 1% level,*** significant at the 0.1% level
Source: own calculations using the data from the labour market surveys conducted in Vinh in 1999
Formal sector Informal sector Employees in priv. ent.
State admin.
State-owned ent.
All Private State All Employees
Dep. variable=logarithm of the hourly wage N: 1901 N: 139 N: 1762 N: 1323 N: 373 N: 512 N: 734 N: 1028 R2= 0.33 R2=0.35 R2= 0.31 R2= 0.15 R2= 0.23 R2= 0.24 R2= 0.38 R2= 0.27
Coef. Coef. Coef. Coef. Coef. Coef. Coef. Coef.
_cons 1.66*** 2.8*** 1.67*** 1.32*** 1.33*** 1.72*** 1.4*** 1.94***
Age 0.05*** -0.18 0.05*** 0.07*** 0.06** 0.040 0.07*** 0.03**
Age2 -0.0003** 0.0005 -0.0004*** -0.0007*** -0.0006* -0.0003 -0.006*** -0.002 Women -0.18*** -0.32** -0.17*** -0.24*** -0.28** 0.28*** -0.16*** -0.19***
Primary school, no qualifications (reference cat.) Primary school qualification -0.18 -0.11 -0.02 -0.18 -0.12 -0.14 0.360 -0.015 Lower secondary school qualification -0.12 -0.33 -0.09 -0.03 0.060 -0.0007 -0.57 0.070 Upper secondary school qualification 0.030 -0.03 0.040 0.050 0.050 0.060 -0.22 0.140 No vocational training, no qualifications (ref.) 0.120 Lowest vocational training, no qualifications 0.11* 0.270 0.070 0.20** 0.25** 0.27*** 0.29** 0.025 Vocational school – incomplete, no qualifications -0.03 -0.06 -0.05 0.120 0.040 0.020 -0.03 -0.014 Vocational school – completed but without
qualifications 0.15*** 0.012 0.14** 0.68*** 0.34*** 0.24*** 0.23* 0.15**
Full-time vocational school 0.27*** 0.37* 0.23*** 0.030 0.23** 0.29*** 0.22***
Polytechnic, university, other institution of
higher education 0.45*** 0.41** 0.44*** 0.160 0.47*** 0.50*** 0.44*** 0.46***
Master’s degree, doctorate 0.64*** 0.350 0.62*** 0.420 0.60*** 0.63***
Other qualification -0.39 -0.44
* significant at the 5% level, ** significant at the 1% level,*** significant at the 0.1% level
Source: own calculations using the data from the labour market survey conducted in Vinh in 2005
2005 1999 Only earned
income
All sources of income
Only earned income
All sources of income
No. % No. % No. % No. % With a monthly income below US$ 7.6 per head 49 2.23 12 0.55 31 1.41 20 0.91
With a monthly income below US$ 10 per head 62 2.83 18 0.82 185 8.42 128 5.83
Income below US$ 16 per month (according to new poverty threshold)
191 8.71 106 4.83 374 17.02 308 14.02
Source: own calculations using the data from the labour market surveys conducted in Vinh in 1999 and 2005
The first three columns with values from the sample The last three columns with extrapolated values
Unem-ployed people
All employees of the formal
sector
Only people employed by the state
Unem-ployed people
All employees of the formal
sector
Only people employed by the state Sum of wages (VND 1000s) 2,169,310 2,355,227 42,057,625 38,737,679
Employees 1806 1962 35,036 32,250
1) Average wage per person 1201 1200 21,436 21,449 Sum of contributions (VND 1000s) at contribution rate
of 2.5% 54,233 58,881 1,051,441 968,442
Individual contribution 30 30 536 536
Unemployed (pers.) 128 2286
Unemployed people with a period of unemployment
<12 months 53 946
Employees in the informal sector who lost their job in
the formal sector 96 1714
Employees in the informal sector who lost their job in
the formal sector less than 12 months ago 5 89 2) Sum of benefits: for 53 persons 34,980 624,643 for (53+5) persons 38,293 683,812 3) Average unemployment benefit 660 660
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IABDiscussionPaper No. 23 / 2006
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