Modelos de Gestión de Calidad

116

Introduction

1. International migration from Poland before and after EU accession

1.1 Introduction

1.2. International migration from Poland before and after EU accession 1.2.1 Introduction

1.2.2 International migration before Poland’s accession to the EU 1.2.3 International migration after Poland’s accession to the EU 1.3 Migration to Germany, Great Britain, Ireland and Sweden

Great Britain and Ireland Germany

Sweden

1.4 Individual determinants of Polish international migration 1.4.1 Introduction

1.4.2 Migration of healthcare workers 1.4.3 Migration of students

1.4.4 Migration of university graduates 1.4.5 Migration of the unemployed

1.5 Determinants of Polish international migration at aggregate level 1.6. Impact of international migration on the labour market and economy

2. Internal mobility and work commuting

2.1 Intensity of internal migration in Poland compared with other EU countries 2.2 Individual determinants of internal migration

2.3 Regional determinants of internal migration

2.4 Substitutability of internal migration for other forms of mobility 2.5 Regional determinants of work commuting

2.6 Individual determinants of work commuting time

2.7 Consequences of internal migration and commuting for the labour market and economy

Summary 119 120 120 120 120 121 123 129 130 134 134 135 135 137 137 138 138 140 141 143 143 145 148 152 154 157 159 161

117 LIST OF TABLES

Table III.1. Number of Polish long-term migrants before EU accession Table III.2. Main Polish migration destinations before and after EU accession

Table III.3. Number of work permits issued to Polish citizens engaging in work in selected EEA countries Table III.4. Inflow and number of Polish immigrants in Great Britain (in thousands)

Table III.5. Inflow of immigrants from Poland and other NMS to Sweden in the period 2000-2005

Table III.6. Determinants of inclination to migrate at the individual level and their impact on factors operating at the aggregate level

Table III.7. Spatial description of regions versus internal migration intensity

Table III.8. Structure of migrants and population of 15-year-olds and over by labour market status prior to migration (percentages)

Table III.9. Logit model results for change in residence during 12 months before survey Table III.10. Average migration outflow and inflow in poviats by clusters (percentages) Table III.11. Migration effectiveness in poviats by clusters (percentages)

Table III.12. Model results for the first stage of the migration process – decision on emigrating from the region of residence Table III.13. Model results for the second stage of the migration process – choice of destination (region)

Table III.14. Gross and net monthly pay of a childless person with a wage equal to 100 per cent of the average wage in Poland and 67 per cent in other EU countries in 2004 (in EUR and PPSa))

Table III.15. Volume of interregional work commuting by region of residence and structure of hired workers commuting to work outside their region of residence

Table III.16. Effectiveness of work commuting between regions

Table III.17. Model results for work commuting volume outside the region of residence

Table III.18. Logit model results for commutes lasting longer than 30 minutes in the EEA countries

LIST OF BOXES

Box III.1. Analysed types of migration

Box III.2. Potential data sources on international migration Box III.3. Polish communities abroad

Box III.4. Seasonal migration - why do the Polish do seasonal work abroad? Box III.5. Migration movements in Spain after EC accession

Box III.6. Is Polish migration exceptional compared with other new EU Member States? Box III.7. Legal grounds for freedom of worker movement in the EU

Box III.8. Obstacles and difficulties encountered by emigrants in Ireland and Great Britain Box III.9. Immigrants versus social security – what do the Polish do in other EU countries? Box III.10. Migration as investment

Box III.11. Migration versus level of education – czy istnieje zjawisko drenażu mózgów? Box III.12. Social networks versus migration

Box III.13. Methods for searching jobs abroad Box III.14. Gravitational models

Box III.15. Local labour market characteristics versus migration intensity Box III.16. Two-stage model of decision-making about migration Box III.17. Moving to Warsaw or Dublin?

Box III.18. Migration versus work commuting 122 126 128 130 134 141 144 146 147 149 150 151 151 153 155 155 156 158 119 120 121 123 127 129 130 133 135 136 136 139 139 143 149 150 153 154

118

LIST OF CHARTS

Chart III.1. Growth rate for the number of people staying abroad (left axis) (compared with a given quarter of the preceding year) and of real GDP (right axis)

Chart III.2. Number of migrants (in thousands) by duration of stay abraod (quarterly data)

Chart III.3. Private current transfers – revenues (ln / log / natural logarithm of million euros) in the period 1994-2005 and 2001 (first quarter)-2006 (third quarter)

Chart III.4. Number of people engaging in work in Great Britain, Ireland and Sweden (in hundreds of thousands) and migration boom after EU enlargement versus growth and unemployment rates (2005) in the NMS

Chart III.5. Number of personal public service numbers issued in Ireland to the citizens of Poland and the NMS10 in the period 2004-2006 (thousands)

Chart III.6. Average score obtained in the TOEFL (CBT) exam by the citizens of the EU countries and the share of exam-takers in the population aged 15-39 in the period 2003-2004

Chart III.7. Level of education of Polish long-term emigrants (left graph) and level of education of Polish emigrants aged 13+ who stayed abroad for more than 2 months in the period 1989-2002

124 124 125 130 132 133 157

119

Introduction

This Part looks at spatial mobility of human resources, which has been in the focus of interest of a number of social sciences – including, above all, demography, sociology and economics, but also psychology, political sciences and history. The terminology used in these research studies is rather varied and it does not constitute a coherent system. Therefore, for the avoidance of doubt, in Box III.1, we briefly present the forms of mobility which are the subject of our further investigations.

The purpose of the analyses presented in this Part of the report is to describe migration movements that are directly or indirectly connected with employment, namely internal and international migration as well as work commuting. For each of the above, we attempt at estimating the scale of migration and at assessing the factors which – at individual and aggregate levels – determine the probability of changes in residence. we put, at the same time, special emphasis on economic factors, including those which are directly or indirectly related to the labour market.

Alongside separate analyses of internal and international migration as well as work commuting, we give a lot of attention to mutual re- lations between these three forms of spatial mobility. We intend to determine to what extent these phenomena substitute or comple- ment each other. In the conclusions, we also present an assessment of the potential impact that international and internal migration as well as work commuting have on the Polish economy and labour market in the medium and long term.