II. Material y Métodos
2.4. Población y muestra
2.4.2. Muestra
The value of selected commercial real estate (CRE)-related private construction put-in-place decreased in the month of January, but was higher than the pace of construction in January 2012. The $191.5 billion seasonally adjusted annual rate in January was 0.2 percent lower than the December rate, but 14 percent higher than the January 2012 pace. The pace of construction in January was 31% higher than its recession low and 39% below its pre-recession high.
Private MULTIFAMILY new construction activity continued to increase in January.
January’s seasonally adjusted annual pace of $26.5 billion was 1.7 percent higher than December’s $26.0 billion and 55 percent higher than last January’s rate. The pace of construction in January was 103% higher than its recession low and 52% below its pre-recession high.
The value of private OFFICE construction put-in-place increased slightly 0.9 percent in January. January’s seasonally adjusted annual pace of $29.9 billion was 26.2 percent higher than last January’s rate. The pace of construction in January was 39%
higher than its recession low and 49%
below its pre-recession high.
The value of private HEALTH CARE construction put-in-place increased 2.9 percent in January. January’s seasonally adjusted annual pace of $29.4 billion was 1.9 percent lower than last January’s rate.
The pace of construction in January was 8%
higher than its recession low and 27%
below its pre-recession high.
The value of private RETAIL, WHOLESALE AND SELECTED SERVICES (referred to as COMMERCIAL by the Census Bureau) construction put-in-place increased 0.6 percent in January. January’s seasonally
adjusted annual pace of $44.9 billion was 3.0 percent higher than last January’s rate.
The pace of construction in January was 30% higher than its recession low and 50%
below its pre-recession high.
The value of LODGING construction put-in-place decreased in January. January’s seasonally adjusted annual pace of $10.3 billion was 13.3 percent higher than last January’s rate. The pace of construction in January was 31% higher than its recession low and 73% below its pre-recession high.
The value of MANUFACTURING construction put-in-place fell 2.9 percent in January.
January’s seasonally adjusted annual pace of $50.6 billion was 13.1 percent higher than last January’s rate. The pace of construction in January was 72% higher than its recession low and 22% below its pre-recession high.
VALUE OF CONSTRUCTION PUT-IN-PLACE Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
Value of Selected Private CRE-Related Construction Put-In-Place, $millions
Year-Over-Year % Change in Trailing Three Month Selected Private CRE-Related Construction 0
50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000
2000 -Jan 2001 -Jan 2002 -Jan 2003 -Jan 2004 -Jan 2005 -Jan 2006 -Jan 2007 -Jan 2008 -Jan 2009 -Jan 2010 -Jan 2011 -Jan 2012 -Jan 2013 -Jan
30%
Source: MBA, U.S. Census Bureau -40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
2000 -Jan 2001 -Jan 2002 -Jan 2003 -Jan 2004 -Jan 2005 -Jan 2006 -Jan 2007 -Jan 2008 -Jan 2009 -Jan 2010 -Jan 2011 -Jan 2012 -Jan 2013 -Jan
VALUE OF CONSTRUCTION PUT-IN-PLACE Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
Value of Selected Private CRE-Related Construction Put-In-Place, $millions
0
2000 ‐Jan 2001 ‐Jan 2002 ‐Jan 2003 ‐Jan 2004 ‐Jan 2005 ‐Jan 2006 ‐Jan 2007 ‐Jan 2008 ‐Jan 2009 ‐Jan 2010 ‐Jan 2011 ‐Jan 2012 ‐Jan 2013 ‐Jan
Lodging
2000 ‐Jan 2001 ‐Jan 2002 ‐Jan 2003 ‐Jan 2004 ‐Jan 2005 ‐Jan 2006 ‐Jan 2007 ‐Jan 2008 ‐Jan 2009 ‐Jan 2010 ‐Jan 2011 ‐Jan 2012 ‐Jan 2013 ‐Jan
Health Care
VALUE OF CONSTRUCTION PUT-IN-PLACE
Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
Value of Selected Private CRE-Related Construction Put-In-Place, $millions
Multifamily Commercial Office Lodging Health Care Manufacturing Total % Change
Month-over-Month
2011 - Jan 13,452 35,419 21,979 7,974 27,125 29,525 135,474 -4.7%
2011 - Feb 13,324 36,061 21,535 7,994 28,110 31,892 138,916 2.5%
2011 - Mar 13,690 36,906 21,633 8,140 28,330 35,062 143,761 3.5%
2011 - Apr 13,800 38,560 21,631 7,838 27,641 33,294 142,764 -0.7%
2011 - May 13,634 39,940 22,894 7,968 27,357 38,292 150,085 5.1%
2011 - Jun 14,582 40,929 23,366 8,408 28,804 43,825 159,914 6.5%
2011 - Jul 15,199 41,713 22,967 7,852 29,082 41,479 158,292 -1.0%
2011 - Aug 15,931 42,494 23,156 8,089 28,972 44,214 162,856 2.9%
2011 - Sep 15,168 40,923 22,645 8,238 29,503 46,497 162,974 0.1%
2011 - Oct 15,552 41,129 23,003 8,176 28,577 45,410 161,847 -0.7%
2011 - Nov 16,364 41,938 22,570 8,696 29,529 44,918 164,015 1.3%
2011 - Dec 16,378 41,902 23,001 9,232 29,871 50,025 170,409 3.9%
2012 - Jan 17,108 43,557 23,658 9,053 29,961 44,771 168,108 -1.4%
2012 - Feb 17,784 42,798 23,306 8,976 30,644 46,640 170,148 1.2%
2012 - Mar 18,028 43,234 24,552 10,225 29,560 46,762 172,361 1.3%
2012 - Apr 19,631 43,382 24,294 10,313 30,377 47,873 175,870 2.0%
2012 - May 20,642 44,184 25,335 10,350 30,282 49,446 180,239 2.5%
2012 - Jun 21,661 43,374 25,372 10,614 30,207 48,140 179,368 -0.5%
2012 - Jul 21,906 43,321 25,711 10,843 30,174 46,642 178,597 -0.4%
2012 - Aug 22,355 44,387 27,084 10,890 31,076 47,014 182,806 2.4%
2012 - Sep 22,637 44,575 26,827 10,579 28,577 48,204 181,399 -0.8%
2012 - Oct 23,851 45,415 28,483 11,270 29,154 48,619 186,792 3.0%
2012 - Nov 24,365 44,347 28,999 10,860 28,640 49,555 186,766 0.0%
2012 - Dec 26,061 44,616 29,601 10,927 28,542 52,156 191,903 2.8%
2013 - Jan 26,492 44,867 29,856 10,261 29,379 50,649 191,504 -0.2%
Dec - Jan 1.7% 0.6% 0.9% ‐6.1% 2.9% ‐2.9% ‐0.2%
Jan - Jan 54.9% 3.0% 26.2% 13.3% ‐1.9% 13.1% 13.9%
Trough to current 103% 30% 39% 31% 8% 72% 31%
Peak to current ‐52% ‐50% ‐49% ‐73% ‐27% ‐22% ‐39%
Source: MBA, U.S. Census Bureau
Selected Private CRE-Related Types of Construction
QUARTERLY SALES OF LARGER ($2.5 MILLION+) COMMERCIAL/MULTIFAMILY PROPERTIES
Billions of dollars, Properties and portfolios $2.5 million and greater
$160
$100
$120
$140
$160
$40
$60
$80
$100
$-$20
$40
2001 Q1 2001 Q2 2001 Q3 2001 Q4 2002 Q1 2002 Q2 2002 Q3 2002 Q4 2003 Q1 2003 Q2 2003 Q3 2003 Q4 2004 Q1 2004 Q2 2004 Q3 2004 Q4 2005 Q1 2005 Q2 2005 Q3 2005 Q4 2006 Q1 2006 Q2 2006 Q3 2006 Q4 2007 Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2008 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2009 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2010 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2011 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2012 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4
Source: Real Capital Analytics.
2001 2001 2001 2001 2002 2002 2002 2002 2003 2003 2003 2003 2004 2004 2004 2004 2005 2005 2005 2005 2006 2006 2006 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012
Apartment Retail Industrial Office
QUARTERLY SALES OF LARGER ($2.5 MILLION+) COMMERCIAL/MULTIFAMILY PROPERTIES
Billions of dollars, Properties and portfolios $2.5 million and greater
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Sales
Percent
change Sales
Percent change
APARTMENT
2007 $ 22.63 $ 21.20 $ 24.57 $ 37.33 $ 105.73 8% $ 105.73 8%
2008 $ 14.37 $ 10.63 $ 11.00 $ 5.86 $ 41.86 -60% $ 41.86 -60%
2009 $ 2.90 $ 3.98 $ 4.27 $ 6.20 $ 17.35 -59% $ 17.35 -59%
2010 $ 5.46 $ 6.06 $ 10.58 $ 13.61 $ 35.71 106% $ 35.71 106%
2011 $ 9.26 $ 14.55 $ 15.32 $ 18.33 $ 57.47 61% $ 57.47 61%
2012 $ 13.43 $ 18.16 $ 26.94 $ 27.97 $ 86.51 51% $ 86.51 51%
INDUSTRIAL
2007 $ 13.43 $ 16.79 $ 18.30 $ 12.19 $ 60.71 10% $ 60.71 10%
2008 $ 9.61 $ 7.02 $ 6.20 $ 4.06 $ 26.90 -56% $ 26.90 -56%
2009 $ 1.98 $ 3.06 $ 2.36 $ 3.35 $ 10.74 -60% $ 10.74 -60%
2010 $ 2.97 $ 3.62 $ 4.92 $ 8.51 $ 20.02 86% $ 20.02 86%
2011 $ 4.38 $ 15.00 $ 7.38 $ 8.59 $ 35.36 77% $ 35.36 77%
2012 $ 5.98 $ 9.00 $ 8.23 $ 14.50 $ 37.71 7% $ 37.71 7%
OFFICE
2007 $ 79.16 $ 59.13 $ 44.21 $ 30.14 $ 212.65 52% $ 212.65 52%
2008 $ 18.04 $ 17.50 $ 14.84 $ 8.21 $ 58.60 -72% $ 58.60 -72%
2009 $ 3.92 $ 3.03 $ 5.35 $ 5.17 $ 17.47 -70% $ 17.47 -70%
Total YTD Q4
2010 $ 5.12 $ 9.84 $ 10.57 $ 20.56 $ 46.09 164% $ 46.09 164%
2011 $ 10.83 $ 16.66 $ 16.79 $ 20.75 $ 65.03 41% $ 65.03 41%
2012 $ 15.75 $ 15.40 $ 17.79 $ 30.12 $ 79.07 22% $ 79.07 22%
RETAIL
2007 $ 27.47 $ 22.83 $ 17.57 $ 12.41 $ 80.29 30% $ 80.29 30%
2008 $ 9.31 $ 6.46 $ 5.14 $ 4.13 $ 25.05 -69% $ 25.05 -69%
2009 $ 2.95 $ 2.62 $ 3.28 $ 6.32 $ 15.16 -39% $ 15.16 -39%
2010 $ 3.57 $ 4.28 $ 6.70 $ 8.34 $ 22.89 51% $ 22.89 51%
2011 $ 6.63 $ 16.53 $ 8.94 $ 11.93 $ 44.04 92% $ 44.04 92%
2012 $ 12.77 $ 12.29 $ 9.32 $ 19.86 $ 54.24 23% $ 54.24 23%
TOTAL
2007 $ 142.70 $ 119.96 $ 104.66 $ 92.08 $ 459.38 29% $ 459.38 29%
2008 $ 51.33 $ 41.62 $ 37.19 $ 22.27 $ 152.41 -67% $ 152.41 -67%
2009 $ 11.75 $ 12.68 $ 15.25 $ 21.04 $ 60.72 -60% $ 60.72 -60%
2010 $ 17.12 $ 23.79 $ 32.77 $ 51.03 $ 124.72 105% $ 124.72 105%
2011 $ 31.11 $ 62.74 $ 48.43 $ 59.61 $ 201.89 62% $ 201.89 62%
2012 $ 47.93 $ 54.85 $ 62.29 $ 92.46 $ 257.53 28% $ 257.53 28%
Source: Real Capital Analytics.
QUARTERLY SALES PRICES OF LARGER ($2.5 MILLION+) COMMERCIAL/MULTIFAMILY PROPERTIES
Properties and portfolios $2.5 million and greater
Sales price per unit or sq. ft. ($/sq. ft, or $1000/unit for apartment)
$350
$200
$250
$300
$350
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
01 Q1 01 Q2 01 Q3 01 Q4 02 Q1 02 Q2 02 Q3 02 Q4 03 Q1 03 Q2 03 Q3 03 Q4 04 Q1 04 Q2 04 Q3 04 Q4 05 Q1 05 Q2 05 Q3 05 Q4 06 Q1 06 Q2 06 Q3 06 Q4 07 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 08 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 09 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 0 Q1 0 Q2 0 Q3 0 Q4 1 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 2 Q1 2 Q2 2 Q3 2 Q4
Capitalization rate
$0
2001 Q1 2001 Q2 2001 Q3 2001 Q4 2002 Q1 2002 Q2 2002 Q3 2002 Q4 2003 Q1 2003 Q2 2003 Q3 2003 Q4 2004 Q1 2004 Q2 2004 Q3 2004 Q4 2005 Q1 2005 Q2 2005 Q3 2005 Q4 2006 Q1 2006 Q2 2006 Q3 2006 Q4 2007 Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2008 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2009 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2010 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2011 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2012 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4
Apartment Industrial Office Retail Total
6%
8%
10%
12%
0%
2%
4%
6%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Source: Real Capital Analytics.
0%
2001 Q1 2001 Q2 2001 Q3 2001 Q4 2002 Q1 2002 Q2 2002 Q3 2002 Q4 2003 Q1 2003 Q2 2003 Q3 2003 Q4 2004 Q1 2004 Q2 2004 Q3 2004 Q4 2005 Q1 2005 Q2 2005 Q3 2005 Q4 2006 Q1 2006 Q2 2006 Q3 2006 Q4 2007 Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2008 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2009 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2010 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2011 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2012 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4
Apartment Industrial Office Retail
QUARTERLY SALES PRICES OF LARGER ($2.5 MILLION+) COMMERCIAL/MULTIFAMILY PROPERTIES
Properties and portfolios $2.5 million and greater
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Price per unit or sq. ft. Capitalization Rate
($/sq. ft)
COMMERCIAL/MULTIFAMILY PROPERTY PRICES AS REFLECTED IN SELECTED INDICES
Re-Indexed Values of the Moody's/RCA CPPI,
NCREIF Transaction Based Index, and Green Street Advisors CPPI December 2000 = 100
January 2007 = 100 90
100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200
Dec 2000 Jun 2001 Dec 2001 Jun 2002 Dec 2002 Jun 2003 Dec 2003 Jun 2004 Dec 2004 Jun 2005 Dec 2005 Jun 2006 Dec 2006 Jun 2007 Dec 2007 Jun 2008 Dec 2008 Jun 2009 Dec 2009 Jun 2010 Dec 2010 Jun 2011 Dec 2011 Jun 2012 Dec 2012
Moodys/RCA CPPI NCREIF TBI GSA CPPI
120 y
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, Real Capital Analytics, Moody's Investors Services, National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries, and Green Street Advisors
50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120
Jan 2007 May 2007 Sep 2007 Jan 2008 May 2008 Sep 2008 Jan 2009 May 2009 Sep 2009 Jan 2010 May 2010 Sep 2010 Jan 2011 May 2011 Sep 2011 Jan 2012 May 2012 Sep 2012
Moody's/RCA CPPI NCREIF TBI GSA CPPI
COMMERCIAL/MULTIFAMILY PROPERTY PRICES AS REFLECTED IN SELECTED INDICES
Changes in the Moody's/RCA CPPI ,
NCREIF Transaction Based Index and Green Street Advisors CPPI
Moody's/ RCA CPPI NCREIF TBI
Green Street Advisors CPPI
2001 -- December 0.5% 0.6% 0.4%
2002 -- December 6.9% 5.1% 1.9%
2003 -- December 7.6% 2.8% 10.5%
2004 -- December 13.5% 8.6% 15.9%
2005 -- December 17.7% 22.6% 13.6%
2006 -- December 7.4% 18.9% 11.3%
2007 -- December 12.0% 4.5% 7.5%
2008 -- December -18.4% -14.7% -29.4%
2009 -- December -25.9% -20.0% -2.1%
2010 -- December 9.7% 17.5% 21.6%
2011 -- December 12.1% 4.7% 12.2%
2012 -- December 8.1% 3.7% 6.7%
Quarter-over-quarter Month-over month Month-over month Moody's/RCA CPPI NCREIF TBI
Green Street
Advisors CPPI Moody's/RCA CPPI
2010 -- December 2.8% 12.2% 0.7% 0.9%
2011 -- January 0.2% 0.8%
2011 -- February 1.2% 1.2%
2011 -- March 3.0% -0.1% 3.6% 1.0%
2011 -- September 3.6% 10.6% 0.0% 0.6%
2011 -- October 0.0% 1.3%
2011 -- November 0.7% 0.4%
2011 -- December 1.3% -4.2% 0.0% -0.4%
2012 -- January 0.0% 0.8%
2012 -- February 0.3% 2.6%
2012 -- March 3.8% 2.2% 0.7% 0.4%
2012 -- September 0.1% 2.4% 1.0% 1.4%
2012 -- October -0.1% -0.5%
2012 -- November 1.4% 0.9%
2012 -- December 3.2% -0.9% 0.0% 2.8%
Current price relative to peak 85% 98% 80%
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, Real Capital Analytics, Moody's Investors Services, Year-over-year Change