9.1
Conclusions from New Monitoring Data
The most recent monitoring continues to highlight exceedences of the annual mean for nitrogen dioxide at a number of locations across the city, plus exceedences of the hourly mean objective at locations in central Oxford. All of these locations have been reported previously and are within the existing Air Quality Management Area.
Continued exceedences of annual mean objective for nitrogen dioxide as follows:- Central Oxford
Ring Road Roundabouts (Wolvercote, Green Road) Specific Roads or Junctions (Botley Road).
Continued exceedences of hourly mean objective for nitrogen dioxide:- Central Oxford
Areas where annual mean objective for nitrogen dioxide is no longer exceeded:- Summertown
Cutteslowe Roundabout
Trends in diffusion tube monitoring data:-
R/S AQMA – Roadside results in central Oxford AQMA
These results show a 13% reduction in roadside air pollution levels over a 10 year period
Bus Priority- Roadside results on streets within the bus priority route
These results show a 14% reduction in roadside air pollution levels over a 10 year period
AUN – Central Oxford site for AUN station in St Aldate’s, within AQMA and Bus Priority
These results show a 4% reduction in roadside air pollution levels over a 10 year period
St Ebbe’s- Urban background site, close to central area
These results show a 5% reduction in background air pollution levels over a 10 year period
Trends in Continuous Monitoring Data
Oxford Centre, St Aldate’s has seen a 24% increase in annual mean nitrogen dioxide levels since 2009, whereas Oxford High Street monitoring site has seen a 5%
increase over the same period.
The difference between these two sites is attributable to the relocation of additional bus stops into St Aldate’s during this period.
9.2
Conclusions relating to New Local Developments
There are no new current local developments that will require more detailed consideration in the next Updating and Screening Assessment.
There are two significant planned future developments:-
A significant local housing development is planned for the Barton Area.
Revised proposals for a new city centre Shopping Centre, to replace the existing Westgate Centre.
9.3
Other Conclusions
The City Council has taken a new integrated approach to considering air pollution emissions within a framework of a Low Emission Strategy considering all emissions to air and their combined impact on climate and air pollution. This has led to the development of targets for reducing the carbon impact and air pollution impact of transport. This new approach will be subject to further consultation with key stakeholders during 2013.
Various changes to the operation of the bus services in Oxford city centre have been made since the Air Quality Action Plan:
The bus routes in Oxford were more or less unchanged throughout the period 1999- 2009. In spring 2009, substantial changes were made to bus routes under the
hybrid diesel-electric buses. Approximately 70% of the buses in Oxford City Centre met the Euro V standard or better in 2011.
Bus frequencies were reduced further in 2011 as the result of joint ticketing
arrangements introduced through a Qualifying Agreement between the bus operators and the City and County Councils.
The bus operators will continue to update their fleets under the Qualifying Agreement and all buses will meet the Euro V standard or better by 1 January 2014.
The reduction in bus numbers resulting from the implementation of the Transform Oxford Queen Street measures in 2009 had a substantial effect on the emissions of pollutants from buses in the city centre. The estimated total emissions from buses in the city centre decreased by 29%. 35%, 20% and 27% for oxides of nitrogen,
nitrogen dioxide, particulate matter, PM10 and carbon dioxide respectively. The effect was greatest on Queen Street because the number of buses was reduced and bus stops were relocated onto St Aldates.
The bus fleet was steadily updated between 2009 and 2011 with the replacement of some Euro II and Euro III buses with Euro IV, Euro V and Euro V hybrid buses. The 2006 Oxford Air Quality Action Plan proposed the introduction of a Low Emission Zone in the city centre: it is likely that the prospect of the LEZ influenced the bus companies fleet replacement plans but we do not know by how much. The estimated total emissions from buses in the city centre decreased by 14% for oxides of nitrogen and 23% for PM10. We estimate that primary nitrogen dioxide emissions decreased by 47% because of the phasing out of Euro II and Euro III buses fitted with diesel particle traps. Carbon dioxide emissions were estimated to increase by 9% over the period.
We estimate that Euro V hybrid buses contributed 6658 kg/year to oxides of nitrogen emissions from the city centre out of the total of 34915 kg/year bus emissions for the 2011 pre Qualifying Agreement case (19%).This calculation assumes that the
emissions of oxides of nitrogen from hybrid buses are 21% less than the equivalent Euro V bus emissions. On this basis, we estimate that the emissions would have been 1770 kg/year (5%) higher if non-hybrid Euro V buses had been used. We thus estimate that the introduction of hybrid buses reduced emissions of oxides of
nitrogen in 2011 by approximately 5%.
The Qualifying Agreement implemented in 2011 allowed the bus companies to reduce the frequency of buses in the city centre. This has resulted in a substantial reduction in the estimated emissions. The estimated total emissions from buses in the city centre decreased by 13%. 11%, 11% and 14% for oxides of nitrogen, nitrogen dioxide, particulate matter, PM10 and carbon dioxide respectively. The implementation of the Low Emission Zone in Oxford city centre by 2014 will result in the replacement of Euro II, Euro III and Euro IV buses with buses meeting the Euro V standards or better. Our analysis indicates that this will result in a further 4 %, 20% and 18% reduction from the 2011 post Qualifying Agreement baseline in emissions of oxides of nitrogen, nitrogen dioxide and particulate matter, PM10 respectively. Emissions of carbon dioxide are not predicted to change significantly.
However, in spite of these efforts to reduce emissions the national air quality
objective for annual average NO2 is still being exceeded in Oxford. Emissions from sources other than buses have been quantified. Measures to reduce emissions from heavy goods vehicles such as freight consolidation and freight quality partnerships will have the greatest impact on roads where goods vans and lorries make the
largest contribution to emissions. On some roads the potential reduction in emissions is rather small. For example, on St Aldates, non-bus emissions only make up 8.5% of total oxides of nitrogen emissions and 64% of these are from goods vehicles: thus the improvement from changes to the goods vehicle mix is limited to at most 5.4%. On the other hand, Parks Road is not on the main bus routes and so measures to reduce goods vehicle emissions have the potential to reduce total emissions of oxides of nitrogen by up to 40%.
Similarly, measures to control taxi emissions are likely to have most effect on Mansfield Road, where taxis are estimated to contribute 39 % of total oxides of nitrogen emissions.
Reducing car usage, by means of car clubs and car sharing is likely to be most effective on roads that are off the main bus route where cars make a significant contribution to overall emissions. For example, cars are estimated to contribute 54% of emissions on Oxpens Road.
The draft Air Quality Action Plan will be adopted by the City Council and subject to Public Consultation during 2013, with a final version due for the end of 2013. The new AQAP will cover the whole of Oxford, and we recommend that the AQAP is:
an integrated air quality and low carbon transport plan for Oxford;
adopted by both the City and County Councils;
formally a part of the LTP Oxford area strategy;
primarily delivered through the LTP with supporting policy and actions by the City.
As such the AQAP will provide a single focus on air quality and climate change with respect to transport developed and delivered jointly by the City and County Councils. Taking this integrated approach the AQAP will provide a framework for pulling
together existing activity at the City and County for reducing transport emission, and developing new action, in order to meet air quality objectives across the City.
Progress to date has focused on reducing bus emission and traffic management measures. Going forward the key themes of the AQAP to reduce emission across the city will be:
1. A city-wide sustainable travel strategy
The overall objective of the integrated air quality and low carbon transport plan for the whole of the Oxford City area is to:
"Pursue the achievement of air quality standards and objectives across the city, and reduce carbon emission from transport activity" Top level targets
A top level target for CO2 emissions, along with NOx and PM emissions, has already been set within the Low Emission Strategy and reflect the City's Sustainability
Strategy and need to meet air quality objectives. These are as follows:
• a 35% reduction in transport CO2 emission from 2005 to 2020;
• a 50% reduction in NOx and PM emissions from 2005 to 2020.
In addition to these emission based targets we also propose an objective-based air quality target for the AQAP as follows:
• achieve mean NO2 concentrations levels of 45 µg/m3 by 2020 and 40 µg/m3
by 2025;
• concentration levels being the average mean measures at the city centre monitor sites at St Aldates and the High Street.
9.4
Proposed Actions
The new monitoring data has not identified the need to proceed to a Detailed Assessment. The whole of Oxford City remains an Air Quality Management Area. There are no proposals to change the boundary of the existing AQMA.
The monitoring programme continues to be revised since the last progress report, in order to provide a balance between locations that are monitored year on year, as well as sites that are monitored on rotation. The aim in future will continue to provide a balance between a number of fixed sites and a group of sites that are rotated.
The Oxford LEZ is currently being implemented and will be in operation by the end of 2013. The LEZ will promote the introduction of cleaner greener buses, by the
introduction of a Euro V standard for new buses operating in central Oxford from 2014.
An independent assessment report has been carried out on the impact of recent measures to reduce transport emissions.
Further assessment work on the impact of recent changes that have taken place to the bus operations and bus fleets is subject to future funding provision. The Council has an ambition to continue the work developed through the Oxford LEZ, to develop local sustainable transport initiatives with the County Council, that will impact on future air quality and greenhouse gas emissions.
10
References
Oxford City Council Air Quality Action Plan 2006 Oxford City Council Detailed Assessment 2008 Oxford City Council Progress Report 2010, 2011
Oxford City Council Updating and Screening Assessment 2009, 2012
DEFRA: The Air Quality Strategy for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland July 2007
DEFRA: Local Air Quality Management Policy Guidance PG(09). 2009 DEFRA: Local Air Quality Management Technical Guidance TG(09). 2009 Oxfordshire County Council: Local Transport Plan 2011
Oxford Local Plan 2001-2016 Oxford Core Strategy 2026
Oxford City Council: Climate Change Action Plan Oxford City Council: Carbon Management Plan
Oxford Strategic Partnership: Sustainable Community Strategy 2008-12
Oxford City Council Carbon Management Programme Strategy & Implementation Plan 2008